Possible launches of Kalibr cruise missiles from Novorossiysk Naval Base

1 Admiral Essen Frigate has launched 8 Kalibr cruise missiles from just outside the naval base.

They should enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 30 minutes.

Approximate locations of Russian strategic aviation.

4 Tu-95MS are flying past Yaroslavl Oblast to the launch lines near the village of Uzmore, Saratov Oblast. They may carry out simulated launch maneuvers from Penza Oblast.

1 Tu-160M is flying past Yekaterinburg, also towards the launch lines near the village of Uzmore.

They are all expected to reach Uzmore in around 55 minutes.

The second Admiral Essen frigate has also launched 8 Kalibr cruise missiles. A total of 16 Kalibrs are flying towards Ukraine and will likely enter via Beryslav District, Kherson Oblast.

For those who aren't interested in the strike coverage, you can mute the channel notifications for 8 hours or so.

I'm saying this because most people who mute the channel select "mute forever", and end up forgetting to ever unmute it again 🥲

The first 8 Kalibr cruise missiles should enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 15 minutes.

The second group of 8 Kalibrs should enter Ukrainian airspace around 10 minutes after the first group.

The 16 missiles will likely fly in pairs.

Correction: There are 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers airborne from Ukrainka Airbase. Both are flying past Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan.

The 2 Tu-160s and 4 Tu-95MS are expected to reach the launch lines near the village of Uzmore, Saratov Oblast, in around 30 minutes.

Kalibrs should be appearing very soon.

4 pairs of Kalibrs flew past Dzhankoi, Crimea, towards Beryslav, Kherson Oblast.

Correction: 2 Tu-160s have already reached Engels District, Saratov Oblast, and are circling, waiting for the 4 Tu-95MS from Olenya Airbase to arrive.

4 pairs of Kalibrs are flying past Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, towards Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.

No radar detections on the Kalibrs yet. So far, they have only been detected via civilian reports from Dzhankoi and southern Russian-controlled Kherson Oblast.

~170 Geran-2/Gerbera drones are still detected in Ukrainian airspace.

8 Kalibrs are detected now. Flying past Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast, towards Bashtanka

4 pairs of Kalibrs changed course towards Nova Odesa, Mykolaiv Oblast.

Another 8 Kalibrs should enter Kherson Oblast in the next few minutes.

4 pairs of Kalibrs are flying further west to Berezivka, Odesa Oblast.

4 new pairs entered Kherson Oblast via Nova Kakhovka.

4 pairs of Kalibrs changed course to the northwest, flying towards southeastern Vinnytsia Oblast. High threat to Ladyzhyn Thermal Power Plant.

4 pairs are following on a similar course, towards Nova Odesa, Mykolaiv Oblast.

Altitude: 50-100 metres.

4 pairs of Kalibrs entered Vinnytsia Oblast, flying towards Tulchyn.

4 pairs of Kalibrs are following behind via Berezivka, Odesa Oblast.