The next large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine will likely take place tonight.

In the image, there are two Tu-95MS strategic bombers equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. These are currently in the air, redeploying to Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.

The number of Tu-95MS at Olenya is being clarified, but it's somewhere between 7 and 10. 1 other Tu-95MS stationed at Engels-2 Airbase is also equipped with missiles.

Additionally, 2-4 Tu-160 strategic bombers have likely been equipped with missiles at Belaya Airbase.

Furthermore, two surface-carriers have reportedly been equipped with 16 Kalibr cruise missiles at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

Image credit: @eRadarrua.

Iskander from Belgorod to Sumy Oblast.

Flying past Hrabovske/Krasnopillya

Disappeared near Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast.

There was activity on one of the frequencies used by Russian strategic aviation, further suggesting the next attack will indeed take place tonight.

I don't know which frequency this was as I didn't hear anything on the ones I'm currently monitoring. It sounds like it was a combat-related frequency, rather than communications to command and control in Moscow, although this isn't confirmed yet.

The two Tu-95MS pictured in the above image are approaching Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, for landing, where they will join the other strategic bombers stationed there.

There are also 6 MiG-31K fighters stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. They were last seen inside their concrete hangars. There is currently no reliable information suggesting they will be used tonight.

So far, the main threat is from Kh-101 cruise missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles.

Currently there are only ~12 Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Considering the fact that most strategic bombers are concentrated in western Russia, any mass-launches of Gerans probably wont take place for at least 5 hours.

Currently, a minimum of 8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are ready for the next missile attack on Ukraine.

This includes:
- 5 Tu-95MS at Olenya Airbase.
- 2 Tu-95MS at Dyagilevo Airbase.
- 1 Tu-95MS at Engels-2 Airbase.

Also, as I mentioned earlier, there is a possibility of 2-4 Tu-160M strategic bombers being used from Belaya Airbase in the far east. If this is the case, these bombers will already be airborne right now, but without being detected yet.

The number of Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to around 30.

So far, launches have taken place from:

- Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
- Tsumbulova Testing Site, Oryol Oblast.
- Navlya Testing Site, Bryansk Oblast.
- Hvardiiske Airbase, Crimea.
- Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast (unconfirmed).

No mass launches have been recorded yet.

2-4 Tu-160M strategic bombers are likely airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, flying to their launch lines in Saratov/Volgograd Oblast.

A total of 5 (!) different frequencies have been active today, including 4632 kHz which is used during both winter and spring.

Information about Tu-160s being airborne is not confirmed, but would line up with timing.

The first large groups of Geran-2 drones have begun to enter Ukrainian airspace, with at least 20 flying in two chains through Chernihiv Oblast in the direction of Kyiv Oblast.

The first groups of Geran-2 drones have entered Kyiv Oblast, and are around 25 km from Kyiv.

If they attack Kyiv, the missiles will almost certainly fly to Kyiv later, rather than western Ukraine.

The city of Dnipro is under attack from Gerans - 2 impacts so far. Air defence is working in Dnipro in Pavlohrad.

2 Geran-3 jet-drones have entered Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv Oblast, flying towards Chornobyl.

At least 55 Geran-2 drones are currently detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Iskander on Kharkiv

This is Tornado-S. Flying to Kharkiv City via Tsyrkuny.

Explosion in Kharkiv City.

Another explosion in Kharkiv.