Russia is likely planning to carry out another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine in the coming days.

- 1 Tu-95MS strategic bomber redeployed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, where it was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles before likely relocating to Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

- 4 Tu-95MS redeployed from Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases to Ukrainka Airbase in the far east, where they are being equipped with missiles alongside a 5th Tu-95MS.

- 1 Tu-160 strategic bomber redeployed from an unknown airbase (possibly Borisoglebskoye Airbase in Kazan) to Ukrainka Airbase.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles were delivered to OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast, and possibly Kursk Oblast, by IL-76MD cargo planes.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles were delivered to OTRK installations near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, by an AN-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane.

- Accumulation of Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drones continues at all the main launch sites near Ukraine.

And of course, there were also those BM-35 drone flights over Kyiv recently, which were likely scouting out Patriot installation locations and the condition of power plants.

Although, if strategic aviation is used like I think it will be, the attack would be more likely to target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine.

Possible Neptune cruise missile launch from Kharkiv Oblast to Belgorod.

Russian S-300/400 air defence is operating.

Two aerial targets are detected, flying from Belgorod Oblast to Voronezh Oblast on a northeastern course.

Both Neptune cruise missiles were intercepted by Russian air defence near Novy Oskol, Belgorod Oblast.

Around 50 minutes ago, a Russian Su-34 aircraft crashed off the coast of Odesa Oblast.

The aircraft, which had taken off from Khanskaya Airbase, Republic of Adygea, flew on an extremely strange route, coming within 10 km of the coast of Odesa Oblast without cover from any Su-35 fighters, before making a sudden U-turn around Zmiinyi Island and crashing into the Black Sea. For reference, most launches of glide-bombs take place at around 45 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.

As the aircraft was already rapidly losing altitude prior to performing its U-turn, it's highly unlikely that it was shot down by Ukrainian air defence.

Currently, Russian Ka-27 and Mi-8 helicopters are flying to the crash location to search for the pilots.

Reports state that a second Su-34 crashed, this time while attempting to carry out a combat sortie in Kursk Oblast at around 3:30 pm Kyiv time - around 7 hours ago.

Apparently the aircraft suffered a technical malfunction, with the crew being killed as a result. The timing of the crash lines up with departures from Engels-2 Airbase, which is where this plane reportedly took off from.

As of now this remains unconfirmed, but it could be what Fighterbomber is referring to in his recent post on the crash.

Update: The aircraft that crashed over the Black Sea appears to have been a Su-30 fighter (not 100% confirmed yet).

The Su-34 crash over Kursk Oblast has also been confirmed.

In the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive operations, advancing on a wide front towards Slovyansk.

In the southwest, Russian forces continued to slowly advance in Minkivka, improving their positions in the northern part of the village and in the adjacent forest.

To the northeast, the Russians established control over several treelines on the tactical heights overlooking Pryvillya, allowing for deeper penetrations across the tributary of the Vasyukivka River into the northern part of the village.

Further northeast, Russian forces expanded their foothold in southeastern Nykyforivka, and advanced west from the village into the nearby treelines. At the same time, they were able to capture a number of positions southeast of the village, while infiltrations were carried out across the Vasyukivka River towards the centre of the settlement.

Additionally, Russian forces continued taking positions in the treelines west of the gulley that runs southwest from Riznykivka, while further improving their positions in Riznykivka itself where Ukrainian forces are carrying out continued counterattacks, slowing the Russian progress there.

+ ~10.08 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued their offensive and have made new progress in four different areas.

In the south, Russian forces cleared the remaining Ukrainian positions in the forests south of the highway just outside Lyman, and established control over much of the grey-zone to the north. From there, they were able to entrench in the first streets of the Lisovyi District. Ukrainian forces are bringing in additional reserves to the city in an attempt to contain the Russian advance, however increased Russian strikes on crossings and pontoon bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River are making this incredibly difficult and costly.

To the northeast, Russian forces established control over a number of trenches along the Lyman - Zarichne Road. They also resumed their assault operations in the Masliakivka District of Lyman.

To the northwest, following deep infiltrations into the city, Russian forces consolidated in a number of positions on Pidstepna and Kolhospna Streets in northern Lyman. Infiltrations continued towards Slobozhanska Street.

In the north, Russian forces improved their positions in the forested areas northeast of Lyman, and are carrying out attacks on Ukrainian strongpoints in the direction of Stavky. At the same time, attacks are being carried out from Stavky to the the east, as well as on the agricultural buildings on the western outskirts of the village.

+ ~2.58 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Svyatohirsk direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have broken through Ukrainian defences in Oleksandrivka,

Following earlier entries into the village, Russian forces managed to consolidate in the remaining treeline positions to the east, and captured the eastern part of the settlement. Other assault groups also entered from the forests to the south, entrenching in the southern and southwestern parts. Heavy fighting is ongoing.

+ ~1.04 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Borova direction, Russian forces intensified their assault operations in the direction of the Oskil River, recapturing previously lost positions.

Following progress being made north of the Kruhlyakivsky Reservoir, Russian forces began advancing south of it, capturing treeline positions there. From there, they crossed the Lozova River and infiltrated the southeastern part of Nova Kruhlyakivka.

Additionally, the Russians recaptured numerous treeline positions to the southwest, allowing for them to infiltrate the southeastern streets of Bohuslavka.

+ ~4.68 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Kupyansk direction, over the last two weeks the situation has become significantly more complicated, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces carrying out assault operations.

In the southeast, Russian forces resumed their assault operations in the area of the highway, which they managed to cross and capture positions to the south of. From there, infiltrating in small groups, they managed to occupy the treelines north of Pishchane, before conducting a pincer movement, operationally encircling the Ukrainian garrison in the village. They were able to capture positions to the west and northeast of the settlement, while infiltrating the trench fortifications to the south.

From there, attacks were carried out further west down the railway line and parallel treelines, allowing for them to gain a foothold in the eastern houses of Kurylivka. Additionally, after prolonged heavy fighting, they were able to gain a foothold in the forest southeast of Petropavlivka. Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack in this forest, while additional Russian assault groups are attacking from newly captured positions to the northeast. Attacks are also underway on the southeastern houses of Petropavlivka from the east.

To the northwest, Russian forces once again crossed the tributary of the Hnylytsya River, recapturing parts of northern Petropavlivka. From there, they infiltrated the central part of the village, where fighting is now ongoing. Additionally, the Russians managed to cross the highway and consolidate in part of the forest east of Kupyansk, as well as in the northern streets of Podoly.

To the west, following earlier assault operations, Ukrainian forces managed to capture large parts of northeastern Kupyansk, including School No. 7 and the milk factory, significantly complicating the Russian position in the city. Clearing operations also continued in the city centre, with Ukrainian forces recapturing a number of enterprises and other buildings just north of the central market.

+ ~8.58 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~0.63 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces crossed the international border at a new point, occupying additional positions in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces crossed the border from the village of Verigovka in Belgorod Oblast, establishing control the border checkpoint. From there, they advanced further southwest, capturing additional positions along the highway. Other assault groups also crossed the tributary of the Kozyanka River, gaining a foothold in the first houses of Chuhunivka and beginning attacks further west.

+ ~1.55 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Bilyi Kolodyaz direction, over the last week Russian forces resumed their assault operations in the northeastern corner of Kharkiv Oblast, making new progress towards the Vovcha River.

After occupying the border village of Dehtyarne in mid-July 2025, this sector of the front has been largely quiet. However, following a reactivation of the front not long ago, Russian forces advanced further west, capturing new treeline positions just south of the international border.

Other assault groups subsequently crossed the border at a new point and occupied treeline positions north of Nesterne, before entering and establishing control over the northern street of the village. Assault operations are now underway on the central part Nesterne, as well as in the direction of Pishchane and Kruhle.

+ ~4.74 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Bilyi Kolodyaz direction, Russian forces continued their offensive and have advanced in four different areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces continued to slowly advance through Vovchanski-Khutory, establishing control over large parts of the eastern part of the village and pushing the Ukrainians towards its eastern outskirts.

To the southwest, the Russians consolidated in parts of northern and central Symynivka, while fighting continues in the direction of the southern outskirts.

To the northwest, Russian forces consolidated in the northern part of Hrafske, while other assault groups captured positions in the eastern part of the village. Fighting continues in the large grey-zone in the central and southern streets.

In the west, following prolonged and costly battles, the Russians were able to capture the remaining positions in the forests north of Starytsya, and squeezed the Ukrainians out of the central part of the village with a 3-vector assault. Fighting continues for the southernmost part of the settlement.

+ ~4.39 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Myropillya and Yunakivka directions, Russian forces continued their intensified assault operations and have made new progress in two different areas.

In the southeast, Russian forces crossed the international border from the Kucherov - Milaevka area, entering and capturing a large forested area. They also secured a number of forested positions to the northeast, and are now heavily bombarding the remaining Ukrainian positions east of Myropillya. Fighting is also continuing for the northern approaches to Oleksandriya.

In the northwest, following earlier infiltrations, Russian forces managed to gain 3 footholds in the main forests north of Sadky. Heavy fighting continues with Ukrainian formations attempting to contain the Russian advance from reaching the village.

Meanwhile, at some point recently, Ukrainian forces carried out a localised counterattack, recapturing part of southern Yunakivka.

+ ~15.69 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~0.28 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll