(PART 2)

Analysis on the situation in the Kostyantynivka direction and Russian plans to take the city:

Although, it is possible that the Russians will be able to at least secure the forested gulley southwest of Illinivka first, and use this in the future for additional attempts to capture the village

As for the right flank of the 72nd Regiment, no major increases in Russian attacks have been observed. Currently, the main vector of attack is along the highway from Stupochky to the large forests east of Kostyantynivka, however no significant success has been recorded yet. Recently, the Russian command redeployed the 70th Motor Rifle Division to the Kostyantynivka direction. In my opinion, this is being done in an attempt to solve the problem on the right flank of the city, in coordination with the recent attacks on Illinivka. Prior to this redeployment, the 28th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 70th Division was already operating in Chasiv Yar, where they have faced problems from Ukrainian incursions into the southwestern part of the city in October (which they have only managed to recapture around half of) and the strong defences in the neighbouring village of Mykolaivka. It's highly likely that the rest of the 70th Division has been redeployed to Bakhmut, where the 24th and 26th Motor Rifle Regiments, along with the 17th Tank Regiment will again attempt to properly develop the right flank of the city.

However, as these preparations take place, actions are already underway on the extreme right flank of the city in the area of Virolyubivka and Mykolaivka. Here, the 126th and 127th Motor Rifle Regiments have been making incremental progress over the last 3 months, successfully creating a large "ledge" northeast of Kostyantynivka. This will likely serve as a springboard for attacks on the Stinky - Klynove line, with the goal of enveloping the strong Ukrainian defences in the area of Mykolaivka, Chervone, and Podilske, which would eventually collapse remaining Ukrainian defences northeast of the city.

Overall, the Russian command appears to be implementing a comprehensive plan to take Kostyantynivka (Whose pre-war population exceeds that of Pokrovsk) in a timely manner. If this succeeds, it will prevent Russian forces from engaging in an extremely prolonged and costly battle for this large city, and allow them to coordinate properly with adjacent offensives in the directions of Dobropillya and Slovyansk.

It appears that the STG government offensive on the SDF-held Al-Ashrafiya and Shekh Masoud Neighbourhoods of northern Aleppo will begin in the coming hours.

Sustained shelling is currently underway, and the Turkish MOD has released a statement pledging to support the STG with the necessary support if requested.

On the northeastern flank of Kostyantynivka, Russian forces continued to advance and have made new progress in four different areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces resumed assault operations in the area of Novomarkove. They managed to capture the treeline positions west of the village and the rest of the windbreaks on either side of the Siverskyi Donets Canal to the north. Other forces levelled the frontline in the treelines to the south and began pushing further west in the direction of Markove.

To the southwest, Russian forces continued advancing in the direction of Fedorivka, where they managed to consolidate in new positions in the forested parts of the gulley. They also improved their positions in the treeline to the west.

To the south, at some point recently, Russian forces consolidated in the southeastern part of Virolyubivka, on the southern bank of the tributary of the Bilenka River. Ukrainian forces subsequently carried out several counterattacks to dislodge these Russian soldiers, but they were ultimately repelled.

To the southeast, Russian forces continued incrementally advancing west of Chasiv Yar. They improved their positions along the railway windbreaks and breached Ukrainian fortifications in the treelines northwest of Mykolaivka, reaching the northwestern edge of the village. Other assault groups continued expanding their zone of control to the northwest, where they managed to capture new positions in two different treelines.

+ ~5.68 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

Here's a very interesting and useful tool which allows you to compare maps from different sources (me, Suriyak, Deepstate, and others).

It also has the timeline feature, similar to that of Deepstate's, allowing you to view changes over time.

Link: https://UkraineViews.org

This is the TG channel of the multi mapping tool I've shown a few times on my channel

UkraineViews is a tool to navigate maps of the war in Ukraine across time and sources.
https://UkraineViews.org
https://t.me/UkraineViews

In the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have captured the last 2023-era fortifications northwest of Bakhmut.

In the southwest, Russian forces advanced on a wide front from the Zaliznyanske area, capturing new positions in four different treelines, including in the last 2023 strongpoints, and the rest of the forest south of Bondarne.

In the northeast, Russian forces continued advancing through Bondarne and captured central part of the village. Fighting continues for its western houses.

+ ~4.58 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

The STG has announced a curfew for the SDF-held Al-Ashrafiya and Shekh Masoud Neighbourhoods in northern Aleppo, urging civilians to stay away from SDF positions as they begin their offensive.

The STG has issued evacuation orders for civilians in 5 parts of northern Aleppo, ahead of their ground offensive.

There are Russian soldiers in Podoly, and they are not DRGs. Apparently, troops were landed there, in the trench systems. I still don't know how they got there, but judging by the direction the vehicle was traveling, it had to cover a long distance, which seems to indicate that the Ukrainian presence in a large area is highly debatable and that Ukrainian drones are what is really preventing Russian consolidation.
In any case, Kupiansk remains a very strange front, with quite contradictory news reports.

This area in blue is known to have a very low presence of Ukrainian soldiers, so it's definitely possible that Russian forces infiltrated through there.

Under heavy artillery cover, STG government forces have launched their full-scale ground offensive against the SDF-held Kurdish-majority Al-Ashrafiya and Shekh Masoud Neighbourhoods in northern Aleppo.

The two main epicentres of fighting right now are in the Resafa District and the Syriac Quarter. STG forces attempted to attack the Syriac Quarter from at least two directions, after it was shelled with mortars. One of these attacks has been repelled by the SDF, with the STG suffering casualties.

They are also attacking towards the centre of the Resafa District, where heavy fighting is ongoing.

Additional evacuation orders have been issued for 3 more areas, bringing the total number of evacuation orders to 8.

The STG is carrying out artillery strikes on SDF snipers at the entrance to the Sheikh Masoud Neighbourhood as cover for advancing ground units.

One Russian "Varshavyanka" submarine has been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea from Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

Total possible salvo: 6 Kalibr cruise missiles.

A short time ago, a Russian Oreshnik IRBM impacted the Stryi underground gas storage facility in Lviv Oblast. Strong explosions were heard.

Security camera footage of the Oreshnik strike on Lviv Oblast.

Clearer footage of the Oreshnik strike.

Reportedly, this was not the Stryi underground gas facility. I'm working to confirm this now.

Additionally, at least 100 Geran-2 drones are flying in the direction of Kyiv. There is a high likelihood of additional missiles being used (not Oreshnik or Kh-101).