Unlike last year, no large-scale missile attack on Ukraine is expected this Christmas.

However, preparations for the next series of strikes are ongoing:

The 4 MiG-31K fighters which took part in the most recent attack redeployed from Lipetsk-2 Airbase, Lipetsk Oblast to Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. They will be equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles there.

Part of southwestern Ryazan Oblast’s airspace in the area of the MiG-31K launch lines is currently closed, which means there is a threat of Kinzhal launches for the near future.

The Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers which took part in the most recent attack are in the process of being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase and then redeploying to the far east.

There is still an unprecedented accumulation of Geran-2 drones at launch sites surrounding Ukraine, and a large number of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Iskander-K cruise missiles that are ready be used.

3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers carried out a scheduled training flight over the eastern Black Sea from Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga Oblast.

3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers carried out a scheduled training flight from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast with the help of an Il-78M tanker for refueling.

This evening, a single Kh-59 cruise missile likely launched from a Su-34 struck the Cherkasy combined heat and power plant. A large fire subsequently broke out.

Possible launches of storm shadow cruise missiles from Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, in the direction of Russian-controlled Kherson Oblast.

4 missiles are detected flying from Nova Kakhovka on a southeastern course.

One of the missiles over Kherson Oblast

S-300 activity from Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The missiles are flying in the direction of the Sea of Azov.

The Kerch Bridge has been temporarily closed.

Sirens in:

Rostov Oblast
Crimea
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Kherson Oblast
Krasnodar Krai
Sevastopol

As many as 2 interceptions may have taken place.

2-4 Storm Shadows are now over the Sea of Azov, ~100 km from the Kerch Bridge.

S-400 launches from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

~2 more storm shadows are flying past Debaltseve, Luhansk Oblast to Rostov Oblast.

2 missiles in Luhansk Oblast changed course to the south/southeast, flying past Rovenky to Rostov-on-Don

2-4 missiles are flying to Temyruk, Krasnodar Krai. The port there was under attack from UAVs earlier. Russian air defence is working from Krasnodar Krai.

2 missiles changed course to the east, flying past Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast.

The fire at the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery is growing

It seems to be all clear for Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. The missiles flying to attack Temryuk were likely all shot down.