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Update: A minimum of 3 Tu-95MS are confirmed to be airborne from Olenya Airbase now.

This is in addition to the 3 Tu-95MS from Belaya Airbase, and 2 Tu-160s from Ukrainka Airbase.

No departures from Engels-2 Airbase have been recorded yet.

The first groups of Russian Geran-2 drones are bypassing Kyiv and flying towards the western regions of Ukraine.

This means that the cruise missiles will likely follow the same path later on.

The highest threat is Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv Oblasts, however additional regions will likely be attacked.

3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers departed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast.

Now there are a total of 9 Tu-95MS and 2 Tu-160s airborne.

The number of Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to 150.

Kalibr launches from at least two Kalibr carriers are expected to take place from within Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai in the next hour.

Tu-95MS and Tu-160s from the far east should reach their launch lines in 30-60 minutes.

As I mentioned earlier, the western regions of Ukraine will be the main target (especially Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv Oblasts). There is also an increased threat for energy infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast.

MiG-31K fighters are being prepared at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at this moment. They will probably launch Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at energy infrastructure in western Ukraine.

Iskander-M ballistic missiles may also be used.

Update on strategic bombers:

- 4 Tu-95MS are airborne from Belaya Airbase.
- 3 Tu-95MS are airborne from Olenya Airbase.
- 3 Tu-95MS are airborne from Engels-2 airbase.
- 2 Tu-160s are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase
- 1 Tu-160 is airborne from Engels-2 Airbase.

13 strategic bombers in total.

The numbers of Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace remains largely unchanged at ~140. They are continuing to transit to the western regions of Ukraine.

Tu-95MS strategic bombers carried out launch maneuvers from Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast.

If the launches were real, they should enter Ukrainian airspace in the next hour.

Tu-160s haven't launched anything yet. This was just the Tu-95s.

High threat of Kalibr launches for the next 30 minutes.

Only 3 out of 10 Tu-95MS have carried out launch maneuvers. These were the ones from Engels-2 airbase.

The Rivne 330 kV electrical substation is under a large-scale Geran-2 drone attack.

This is one of the areas which was scouted out by Russian drones two days ago. Missiles will likely attack it later on.

The Kh-101 launches from 3 Tu-95MS were real and not simulated.

A Russian Su-30/35 is airborne in Bryansk Oblast. It will cover the Kh-101 cruise missiles as they enter Chernihiv/Sumy Oblasts.

The missiles are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in 55-65 minutes.

Unconfirmed reports of Kalibr launches from Novorossiysk Naval Base

Launches of Kalibrs did not take place.

Kh-101s are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 5-10 minutes.

Launches of up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles took place from two Buyan-M corvettes in the Caspian Sea.

These were launched around an hour ago and are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in 30-60 minutes.

Kh-101s are in Ukrainian airspace

Correction: They are flying over Oryol Oblast, Russia