Explosion near Karolino-Buhaz, Odesa Oblast. Somewhere near the coast. 1 more KAB is approaching.

Both Su-34s are flying east over Crimea back to their base airfield.

Another explosion. All clear now.

There will be another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine this morning.

At least 2 Tu-160 strategic bombers are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast.

At least 2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne from Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast.

All are flying towards the launch lines in western Russia.

Additionally, Tu-95MS departures from Engels-2 and Olenya Airbases are expected later on.

Mass launches of Geran-2 drones have already begun, although only a fraction of what will be used tonight has been launched.

So far, around 65 Gerans are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

The Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers from the far east are expected to reach their launch lines in the next 3.5 hours.

This means that departures of Tu-95MS from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, would likely take place in the next 30 minutes. Departures from Engels-2 Airbase could take place any time in the next 3 hours.

No new activity from the Black Sea Fleet has been recorded yet, however 2 Buyan-M corvettes were equipped with Kalibrs at Kaspiysk Naval Base, Republic of Dagestan, in the Caspian Sea.

Clarification: 3 Tu-95MS are airborne from Belaya Airbase.

No departures from Engels-2 or Olenya Airbases have been recorded yet.

The number of Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to around 75.

2-4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers departed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.

The number of Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has rapidly increased to 135 following additional mass launches.

Reports of Kalibr carriers leaving Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai are false.

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Update: A minimum of 3 Tu-95MS are confirmed to be airborne from Olenya Airbase now.

This is in addition to the 3 Tu-95MS from Belaya Airbase, and 2 Tu-160s from Ukrainka Airbase.

No departures from Engels-2 Airbase have been recorded yet.

The first groups of Russian Geran-2 drones are bypassing Kyiv and flying towards the western regions of Ukraine.

This means that the cruise missiles will likely follow the same path later on.

The highest threat is Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv Oblasts, however additional regions will likely be attacked.

3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers departed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast.

Now there are a total of 9 Tu-95MS and 2 Tu-160s airborne.

The number of Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to 150.

Kalibr launches from at least two Kalibr carriers are expected to take place from within Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai in the next hour.

Tu-95MS and Tu-160s from the far east should reach their launch lines in 30-60 minutes.

As I mentioned earlier, the western regions of Ukraine will be the main target (especially Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv Oblasts). There is also an increased threat for energy infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast.

MiG-31K fighters are being prepared at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at this moment. They will probably launch Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at energy infrastructure in western Ukraine.

Iskander-M ballistic missiles may also be used.

Update on strategic bombers:

- 4 Tu-95MS are airborne from Belaya Airbase.
- 3 Tu-95MS are airborne from Olenya Airbase.
- 3 Tu-95MS are airborne from Engels-2 airbase.
- 2 Tu-160s are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase
- 1 Tu-160 is airborne from Engels-2 Airbase.

13 strategic bombers in total.

The numbers of Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace remains largely unchanged at ~140. They are continuing to transit to the western regions of Ukraine.

Tu-95MS strategic bombers carried out launch maneuvers from Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast.

If the launches were real, they should enter Ukrainian airspace in the next hour.

Tu-160s haven't launched anything yet. This was just the Tu-95s.

High threat of Kalibr launches for the next 30 minutes.