(Part 1)

I'd like to make this post to clear some things up about the Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk, my coverage of the events, and what this means for the war.

Firstly, let's look at the tactical side of things, and how people have reacted to it:

These Ukrainian counterattacks did not start when Deepstate posted their famous map update showing most of Kupyansk and the surrounding villages in blue, and multiple pockets of surrounded Russians. The counterattacks started back in early October, and I have been covering their progression since October 15 - nearly two months longer than Deepstate - and longer than almost anyone else on any platform.

This was not a surprise operation, but a prolonged, complex, and multi-stage operation that has taken place across multiple months. When I first started posting about Ukrainian gains in very important areas here - namely the advances north of the city towards Russian logistical routes - I was called out by countless Pro-Russian users for spreading "Ukrainian propaganda" and "only mapping off geolocations and Ukrainian sources". But... when well-known Russian sources and mappers began replicating my map changes in the following weeks, it was *largely* accepted as fact.

Remember, before Deepstate's announcement of the Ukrainian progress of Kupyansk on December 12, and Zelensky's propaganda video at the Kupyansk steel on the city's outskirts on the same day, there was significant consensus among most of the community who follows this war that there was either no Ukrainian counterattacks, or that they were limited and mostly unsuccessful.

Now, while I was covering the situation since October 15, I specifically began raising alarm bells for the Russian garrison in the western suburbs of the city on December 2, nearly 3 weeks ago. There, I stated "The situation could soon reach a critical point for Russian formations in the western part of the city." I was specifically referring to the Ukrainian attempts to cut off the Russian logistical routes in the north, and to encircle Russian groupings in the southwest. And, surely enough, other mappers replicated these changes afterwards.

What we've been experiencing recently is an almost identical phenomenon to what is seen constantly in the Pro-Ukrainian community, where Russian advances are denied for weeks, only for them to be accepted with a delay and the usual BS of "This place served its purpose as Russia suffered tens of thousands of casualties in trying to take it". We've all seen this narrative on tactically/strategically important places repeat itself over and over again, without fail.

The difference with Kupyansk that Russia is almost always on the front-foot and constantly maintains the initiative across nearly the entire frontline. When Pro-Russians are met with a sudden change in the tactical situation in such a critical sector, many end up replicating the age-old tactic employed by Pro-Ukrainians of delaying, delaying, delaying, and then shifting the goalposts once it becomes clear to everyone.

I expect that Ukraine will indeed secure the entirety of western Kupyansk, so it will be interesting to see how long it will take for many Pro-Russians who have denied this for so long to catch up.

Now, for the informational side of things:

The Kupyansk operation has had massive media and propaganda successes for Ukraine, due to the nature of how this war is covered by mainstream media. Zelensky's video on the outskirts of Kupyansk immediately went viral, with all mainstream media outlets instantly picking it up and spinning their usual narratives about the war and attempting to use it to suggest that it's a turning point for Ukraine or that it reflects a "dire situation" for Russia's "4-year 'special military operation'". It re-ignited the usual talk that we constantly see of "Zelensky is brave enough to visit his freedom fighters right on the frontline, while Putin remains in his nuclear bunker, too paranoid and scared to go anywhere, while his commanders send his troops into meat-wave attacks".

(Part 2)

Now of course, the Zelensky video at Kupyansk was "debunked" (I use quotations because the debunking is not completely definitive)... but how many of the hundreds of millions of ordinary people who don't actively follow this war will see that? It had the desired effect - even thought we might know what actually happened - and kept the general public thinking how they want them to.

But, while this has been a big informational success, and a decent tactical success overall for Ukraine, the trajectory of the attrition dealt by Russia continues largely unimpeded.

Russia is still winning, and other crucial sectors are still falling apart. The so-called "Pro-Ukrainians" continue to betray the country and people that they claim to support so strongly by ignoring the critical situations in Myrnohrad, Hulyaipole and Siversk.

The war, overall, remains unchanged, and continues to progress towards its obvious conclusion. Only then will the pro-Ukrainian goalposts shift so far away from their original place that the narrative as we know it collapses.

The Ukrainian GUR published footage showing one of their operatives setting fire to a Russian Su-30 and Su-27 fighter at Lipetsk-2 Airbase, Lipetsk Oblast.

Russian forces have captured the town of Vilcha, Bilyi Kolodyaz direction, Kharkiv Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~1,639.
Total land area: ~3.20 km².

The fighting for Vilcha lasted approximately 27 days.

You know the information space is bad when someone calls me "biased" or "unreliable" and I have to check their profile to see if they're calling me too Pro-Russian or too Pro-Ukrainian 🤣🤣

A car bombing in Moscow has killed Major General Fanil Sarvarov, the head of the operational training department of the Russian General Staff.

Ukrzaliznytsia reports that a freight train derailed near the city of Korosten, Zhytomyr Oblast.

They stated that the cause is "unknown", however it is known that it was struck by multiple Russian Geran-2 drones overnight.

2 Russian Su-34s are flying to their launch lines in the Black Sea to launch glide-bombs at Odesa Oblast.

Currently over Crimea, flying west.

Gerans are also over the western Black Sea, flying to Odesa Oblast

Both Su-34s are now over the Black Sea. 2 Su-35s are covering them.

A Russian recon drone is operating just off the coast from Zatoka, Odesa Oblast. The glide-bombs will likely fly there.

Su-34s are around 100 km from their launch lines

Approaching their launch lines

Launch maneuvers

KABs are flying towards Zatoka, Odesa Oblast.

2 KABs in total, both flying towards Zatoka Bridge.

These are Grom-E1 rocket-powered glide-bombs. They changed their course towards Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast.