Aerial target detected, flying to Pivdenne/Dobroslav, Odesa Oblast.

2 missiles

Flying past Pivdenne to Dobroslav

Explosions in Dobroslav, Odesa Oblast

So far today, 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles have been used against Odesa Oblast.

4 have targeted the Dobroslav area.
2 have targeted the Mayaky Bridge.

This is in addition to numerous Geran-2 drone strikes.

Trump has begun speaking now.

Nothing interesting. The speech is unrelated to Venezuela.

🇺🇦 Deep State on the dire situation of Gulyaypole:

The Ukrainian military resource Deep State reports on the risk of losing Gulyaypole due to management problems and internal sabotage in the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade. According to DS, some officers are persuading fighters to abandon their positions without authorization, while the units are not aware of the current situation of their neighbors, which leads to disorientation and additional losses.

The 102nd brigade has mostly been withdrawn to the rear now due to heavy losses from the encirclements east of Hulyaipole, lack of coordination, constant Russian bombardment, and low-quality fortifications.

The issues in this unit have been known for some time, and the casualties they suffered prior to the Russian entry into Hulyaipole had meant they couldn't perform properly. This is the main reason why defences are collapsing there right now. The higher command is blame.

Deepstate published satellite imagery showing the ruins of eastern Siversk. Around 300-400 civilians remained in the city for the nearly 4 years of fighting.

2 of the Iskanders which I previously thought targeted Dobroslav, Odesa Oblast, actually hit port infrastructure near Pivdenne.

At least 7 civilians were killed and 15 others injured.

🇺🇸⚡️- BREAKING: Jeffrey Epstein brought a 14-year-old girl to Mar-a-Lago and asked President Trump, “This is a good one, right?” Donald Trump then nodded and smiled in agreement.

What will the mental gymnastics be this time?

It seems that Russia’s next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine has been delayed, as no significant strategic bomber movement has been recorded for the last two days.

In my opinion, this is due to the prioritisation of smaller, more targeted attacks on Odesa Oblast with Geran-2 drones, Grom-E1 rocket glide-bombs, and Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

Additionally, the preparation of a number of Tu-22m3 strategic bombers is underway. Two of them, each equipped with 2 Kh-32 cruise missiles, redeployed from Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. 2 other Tu-22m3 bombers stationed at Engels-2 Airbase are also equipped with 1 Kh-32 missile each.

It’s also likely that two Buyan-M corvettes were equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles at Kaspiysk Naval Base, Republic of Dagestan, in the Caspian Sea. They can launch a maximum of 16 Kalibrs.

However, 2 days ago, 1 Tu-160 and 1 Tu-95MS strategic bomber redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase to Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast. There, they will likely be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Remember, another 4 Tu-95MS are already equipped with missiles at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, ready for use.

As for Iskanders, deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles were carried out to OTRK installations in Voronezh and Rostov Oblast.

Mass accumulation of Geran-2 and Gerbera drones continues at all major launch sites surrounding Ukraine.

Russian forces have launched a new incursion across the international border into Sumy Oblast, quickly capturing the villages of Hrabovske and Vysoke. Attacks are now underway, with the Russians attempting to penetrate deeper into the region.

As usual with these sorts of incursions, the goal is not to take large swaths of territory. The goal is to stretch Ukrainian forces even thinner, worsening the issues coming from their manpower shortages.

If Ukraine decides to redeploy units away from one direction to this new area in order to reinforce the lines, halt, and possibly even push back Russian forces, the area which they are redeployed from will be significantly weakened, making it easier for the Russians to make progress in.

This is all part of what I like to call Russia's "Whack-a-mole" tactic, which softens up the lines, and exploits the successful attrition being dealt to Ukraine right now. It puts Ukraine in a difficult spot, as if they choose not to redeploy here, the incursion zone could continue to expand and become even more difficult and costly to deal with later on.

Essentially, they are trying to put out more fires than they can possibly deal with - and Russia keeps setting new ones. The main reason why they can't deal with all of the fires at once is because of manpower shortages, which are only continuing to get worse.

Expect more maneuvers like this in different places from Russian forces in the future.

Russian forces have captured the village of Hrabovske, Krasnopillya Direction, Sumy Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~724.
Total land area: ~3.12 km².

The fighting for Hrabovske lasted <1 day.

Russian forces have captured the village Vysoke, Krasnopillya direction, Sumy Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~28.
Total land area: ~0.37 km²

In the Bilyi Kolodyaz direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have captured new positions in three different areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces continued advancing beyond Vovchansk, establishing a buffer-zone around the city where they captured positions in six different treelines to the southeast. They also continued advancing in Vovchanski-Khutory, where they established control over the rest of the eastern part of the village, including the industrial zone.

In the southwest, Russian forces continued their assault operations in Vilcha. They managed to reach the southeastern edge of the town and secured the rest of its western streets. Fighting is ongoing for the last Ukrainian positions in the southern streets.

+ ~6.80 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and are making incremental progress in two main areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces advanced south from the village of Dvorichanske to the nearby forest plantations, establishing control over them after heavy fighting, further shrinking the Ukrainian salient. Ukrainian forces are responding by heavily striking Russian temporary deployment points in Dvorichanske. The Russians also resumed attacks from the east, securing two forest plantations northwest of Kamyanka and pressuring the eastern part of the Ukrainian salient.

In the southwest, Russian forces have been carrying out assault operations towards Putnykove for the last few weeks. So far, despite the length of the battles, they have not achieved significant success, only securing a section of the highway and adjacent treeline positions. Additionally, more recently, attacks were carried out in the direction of the Dovhenke tract. As a result, they were able to capture two treelines and reach the eastern edge of the forested areas there.

+ ~3.03 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll