In the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction and on the northeastern flank of Kostyantynivka, Russian forces continued their intensified assault operations and have made significant progress over the past week.

In the southwest, following their earlier infiltrations, Russian forces managed to consolidate in the treelines north of Virolyubivka and in the forest on the eastern bank of the reservoir east of Klynove. They then entered Virolyubivka and established control over the northern part of the village. Additionally, under heavy artillery and MLRS cover, Russian forces began a new push north from Maiske in the direction of Markove - Fedorivka, and managed to consolidate in new treeline positions north of Maiske and the forest to the northwest. Some soldiers have infiltrated further, entering the western houses of Markove and reaching the forest plantations to the west.

In the northeast, Russian forces began advancing southwest from Vasyukivka. They captured new positions in five different treelines and some adjacent forested areas and are threatening to cut off some of the last remaining 2023 fortifications in this sector. Additionally, the Russians managed to eliminate part of the salient north of Vasyukivka, consolidating in the trenches there, and began a new push further north. There, theyy were able to capture the village of Pazeno and advanced up two treelines, reaching and establishing control over a large part of the forest to the north.

+ ~20.81 km² in favour of Russia.

A Ukrainian sea drone likely struck a Russian Varshavyanka-class submarine stationed at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

The submarine, which can launch up to 6 Kalibr cruise missiles, reportedly received critical damage. Based on previous satellite imagery, the drone exploded next to the submarine’s stern.

Additionally, according to unconfirmed information, other ships were hit at the port, however there is no visual evidence to support this yet.

The head of the Black Sea Fleet Press Service responded to the claims by stating that none of the ships stationed at Novorossiysk were undamaged and are carrying out their duties as usual.

The next large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack will probably take place tomorrow morning, between 00:00 and 08:00 Kyiv time.

It won't be anything special - just another normal-sized attack involving strategic bombers, ballistic missiles and Geran-2 drones.

3 Tu-160M strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast after being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They will then fly from Belaya Airbase to their launch lines in western Russia in order to carry out their combat sorties.

The 2 (not 3) Tu-95MS strategic bombers which redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, yesterday have subsequently flown to Olenya Airbase where they will take off from during the next attack. 1 other Tu-95MS already stationed at Olenya was also equipped with missiles (delivered by an IL-76MD cargo plane) today.

1 Tu-95MS stationed at Engels-2 Airbase is also equipped with missiles.

Thus, there are at least 4 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-160M strategic bombers equipped and ready for usage. If Russia were to use this number of bombers, the number of Kh-101 cruise missiles launched would likely be somewhere around 30-40, although this is a very rough estimate.

There are no changes to the MiG-31K fighters stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. 4-6 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles are expected to be used.

Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles will be used as well. Additional deliveries of Iskander-Ms to OTRK installations near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast has been recorded.

At least 500 Geran-2 drones are expected to be used too, which have been accumulated at all major launch sites surrounding Ukraine.

The main targets for the strike will likely be energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine (highest threat to Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts) and in Kyiv Oblast.

Consequences of a Russian KAB glide-bomb strike on the city of Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast.

I find it crazy that civilian truck drivers are still doing their jobs less than 10 km from the frontline. The whole of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast should've been evacuated months ago.

Odesa Oblast came under attack for the fifth night in a row.

At least 15 Geran-2 drones attacked targets in the southern suburbs of Odesa City, in the area of Sarata, and in Zatoka. A significant portion of the drones were shot down, especially over Odesa City, due to the format they were flying in (one after another).

A large fire was seen burning at an impact site in Zatoka, as seen in the attached video.

In the Khotin direction, Russian forces continue to advance and have made additional progress on the tactical heights.

In the east, Russian forces resumed their assault operations east of Oleksiivka, advancing down two treelines along the tactical heights, strengthening their western flank against the stronger Ukrainian defences near Varachyne. Ukrainian forces are trying to counterattack, and have also attempted to enter Oleksiivka, but so far have achieved no successes.

In the west, Russian forces continued to slowly advance around Andriivka. As a part of their intensified assault operations, they were able to approach the village from the northwest, capturing the rest of the gulley east of Kindrativka. Other forces then secured the northern outskirts of Andriivka and entered the northern houses of the village but were unable to consolidate and quickly withdrew due to Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes. Ukrainian forces also carried out additional unsuccessful counterattacks in Andriivka. Meanwhile, Russian artillery fire has intensified on both frontline and rear positions, significantly complicating Ukrainian logistics and their efforts at counterattacking.

+ ~3.85 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Bilyi Kolodyaz direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have made additional progress over the last week.

In the southwest, Russian forces continued pushing south through Lyman and reached the southern outskirts of the village. Other forces captured its eastern street, therefore completing the capture of the village. They also made additional progress in the forest to the west and captured new positions in the treelines to the east.

To the east, Russian forces continued to push through Vilcha, amid very heavy fighting. They were able to consolidate in the northeastern part of the town following earlier attacks and began a southward push through its eastern streets. As a result, they were able to outflank the town centre, allowing for the stronger Ukrainian positions there to be captured from three directions. From there, the Russians continued pushing towards the southern outskirts, capturing additional positions in the southern and eastern streets. Additionally, Russian forces advanced to the northeast of Vilcha, improving their positions along the highway to Vovchansk and capturing new positions in two different treelines east of the railway line.

In the northeast, following earlier attacks, Russian forces managed to cross a tributary of the Vovcha River from the southeastern edge of Vovchansk and entered the neighbouring village of Vovchanski-Khutory. They consolidated in the western houses in the area of Mryu Street and are now engaged in fierce battles for the western approaches to the industrial zone.

+ ~8.03 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces continued to incrementally advance over the last week and have made additional progress in the direction of Khanje and Ambarne.

Russian forces advanced from their positions in the forest plantations on the western side of the gulley and captured new positions in the treelines and forest plantations further west, pushing the Ukrainians back to the eastern approaches to Khatnje. They were also able to improve their positions northwest of Ambarne, capturing the rest of the forest plantations on the northern edge of the gulley outside the village.

+ ~2.44 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Kupyansk direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to advance on different sides of the Oskil River, making important progress in various areas.

In the east, Russian forces consolidated in the northwestern-most houses of Petropavlivka following the Ukrainian withdrawal from the Synkivka area. From there, they began pushing southeast along the southern bank of the Hnylytsya River, capturing additional positions in the forests and reaching the northern outskirts of Kucherivka. Other forces captured the fish farm to the west, securing most of the remaining positions in the forests outside Kupyansk.

In the southwest, Ukrainian forces continued advancing in southwestern Kupyansk. They consolidated in additional positions in the low-rise residential area southeast of the Yuvileynyi high-rise micro-district. They also captured the rest of the houses north of Yuvileynyi. Additionally, the Ukrainians began a new push north up the western bank of the Oskil River, reaching the central market from the south.

To the north, Ukrainian forces entered the territory of the City Central Hospital, capturing part of it along with the adjacent residential streets. Fierce fighting is ongoing for the main hospital building and the surrounding areas. They also managed to capture the Russian strongpoint at the bread factory and the substation in northwestern Kupyansk, as well as additional residential areas to the southeast. Additionally, the Ukrainians began advancing south down the eastern bank of the Oskil River in northern Kupyansk, capturing new positions in the low-rise residential streets there, while other assault groups pushed further south through the city centre in the direction of School No. 4.

Further north, Ukrainian forces managed to clear Russian positions in most of the forests southeast and northeast of Radkivka, including the pipeline exit point that the Russians previously used to infiltrate the city and bring in supplies. They also advanced west from Kindrashivka, recapturing positions in the treelines and forested areas there.

+ ~6.26 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~3.01 km² in favour of Ukraine.

A Tu-22m3 strategic bomber is airborne from Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, flying towards its launch lines in the Black Sea.

A second Tu-22m3 is airborne. Both are flying towards the Sea of Azov.

Its possible that they are flying to Mozdok Airbase, North Ossetia to be equipped with Kh-22/32 cruise missiles.

Correction: 4 Tu-22m3s are now airborne.

A MiG-31K is airborne over the eastern Black Sea.

It is likely carrying out a training mission with the 4 Tu-22m3 bombers.

No threat to Ukraine.

In the Hulyaipole direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and are advancing at an accelerated pace.

In the south, Russian forces have been carrying out a series of assault operations over the past week aimed at eliminating the Ukrainian salient south of Hulyaipole. They were able to advance north from the area of Dorozhnyanka, capturing positions in 7 different treelines on the tactical heights that have held for more than 3.5 years.

To the north, Russian forces continued advancing in eastern Hulyaipole and captured the local university and additional positions in the low-rise residential streets. They also improved their positions to the southeast, capturing additional treeline positions. From there, the Russians broke through Ukrainian positions in the southernmost part of the city, capturing an agricultural complex and nearby streets, and reaching Hoholya Street, where they established control over multiple low-rise residential blocks.

To the northwest, following earlier infiltrations, Russian soldiers managed to consolidate their bridgehead over the Haichur River on Travnya Street in northwestern Hulyaipole. They also captured additional positions in the treelines and orchards to the north, reaching the southern outskirts of Varvarivka.

+ ~15.35 km² in favour of Russia.

Google search trends for Kupyansk, Hulyaipole, and Myrnohrad over the last 90 days.

This speaks numbers...

Edit: apparently I misclicked and didn’t select Myrnohrad as a search term, which skewed the results.

The fact that no one cares about the hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers abandoned by the Ukrainian command in Myrnohrad is just depressing, and goes to show how effective Ukraine's information effort has been.

There will be no missile attack tonight as satellite imagery reveals that the 3 Tu-160s did not in fact redeploy to Belaya Airbase and instead carried out a training mission.

Preparations are ongoing, but are almost complete. There will likely be something in the next couple of days.

High-quality satellite imagery from Novorossiysk Naval Base shows that the Ukrainian underwater drone missed the Varshavyanka-class Submarine, detonating against the pier. Any damage to the vessel is likely minimal.