Update on the situation in Kupyansk:

The situation continues to deteriorate for the Russian garrison in the western part of the city, which remains operationally encircled. An information blackout has been imposed by the Russian command, with information sharing resulting in severe punishments. This makes it difficult to determine the exact situation, however based on satellite imagery, geolocations, and reports from various sources, we can draw up a somewhat accurate representation of how things are currently playing out.

As I wrote in my last post, Ukrainian forces have managed to block the last supply route for Russian forces in western Kupyansk, which runs along the western bank of the Oskil River. As a result, all supply to the garrison has to be conducted by drones, although this isn't a new phenomenon for this sector. Nevertheless, the Ukrainians failed to consolidate, and Russia has largely repelled the attacks on this area.

The Ukrainian command has brought up additional reserves to Kupyansk, including mercenaries, which are continuing the counterattacks, despite heavy losses. However, they are encountering increasing difficulties in securing key areas, despite many instances of poor Russian coordination. Russian FAB glide-bomb strikes have remained unusually low, but are currently focusing on striking the logistical routes into the city. As a result of this, and other Russian strikes, as well as the attack on the dam in Pechenihy, supply for Ukrainian assault groups is becoming increasingly difficult.

Moreover, Russian forces have begun attempts at eliminating the Ukrainian presence to northeast and north of Radkivka, which has long been a "thorn" for Russia which decreased their logistical potential. The outcome of these attacks is unknown, but if successful, they will likely consolidate and reinforce the whole area and attempt to advance south and cut off the Ukrainian spearhead in the northern part of Kupyansk.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continued making incremental progress within Kupyansk. Control over a number of high-rise buildings and nearby houses in the north was confirmed, although this likely occurred more than two weeks ago. They also managed to recapture the grain elevators just west of the city centre (which the Russians subsequently dropped at least one FAB on) as well as the residential streets to the west. Additionally, despite recent Russian counterattacks in the southwestern Yuvileynyi high-rise micro-district which saw them recover control over the rest of the apartment buildings there, Ukrainian forces were able to consolidate in approximately half of the low-rise residential area to the west.

The situation in other parts of western Kupyansk remains very fluid and dynamic. Ukrainian and Russian soldiers continue to hold positions overlapping each other, leading to a complicated mess of small groups of soldiers from each side maneuvering through urban areas and constantly being targeted by drones and artillery. However, the initiative remains firmly with Ukraine, and the first cases of Russian soldiers attempting to cross the Oskil River via the area of the destroyed highway overpass into the eastern part of the city have been recorded.

Meanwhile, east of the Oskil River, Russian forces continue their assault operations in Petropavlivka. Currently, it appears they are trying to "save" the situation in western Kupyansk by securing this key village, eliminating the Ukrainian control in the area of Synkivka, and swinging west to "link up" with the garrison via the southeastern suburbs of Kupyansk. However, the Ukrainian defence east of the river is very strong, and Russian advances and consolidation has proven difficult and costly.

Cambodian T-55 tanks can be seen being transported to the frontline.

I want to be clear with this now: I want nothing to do with betting or gambling on the war in Ukraine.

Recently, following the ISW fraud controversy with Polymarket, I keep seeing people suggest that my maps and reports should be used as a deciding factor for determining the outcome of bets. One of those such posts got over 1.6 million views.

I even had the "Pentagon Pizza Watch" account reach out to me asking if my map could be embedded in his external betting service. He proceeded to get angry at me when I pointed out how immoral and scummy it was, and how when he used Deepstate's API, it ultimately got their service temporarily taken down, leaving many people - including humanitarian aid workers - in the dark.

Betting on a war where hundreds of thousands of people are dying and millions are suffering is immoral and disgusting, and I will never support it or take part in any of it. Your actions on the internet have real life consequences, even if they aren't immediately apparent and obvious to you.

The Thai military reports that Cambodia has launched more than 3,160 BM-21 Grad rockets and carried out 125 drone strikes so far during the renewed conflict.

Russian forces have captured the village of Pazeno, southwestern flank of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~16.
Total land area: ~0.43 km².

The fighting for Pazeno lasted approximately 8 days.

Another tanker of the Russian “Shadow fleet” has been hit in the Black Sea by Ukrainian surface drones.

Over the last few days, the defence of Siversk has completely collapsed.

A fortress city that the Russians couldn't reach for nearly 4 years is about to be captured after just a week of fighting.

If this isn't a sign of how bad Ukraine's manpower shortages have got, I don't know what is.

The last Ukrainian defences in the besieged city of Myrnohrad are being breached by Russian forces, who have now entered the city centre.

The parts of the pocket still under firm Ukrainian control have decreased to around 2.8 km², compared to ~36 km² at the beginning of the siege.

Nevertheless, Russian FAB glide-bombs continue to strike the remaining blocks still under Ukrainian control. This video shows a FAB-1500 strike on a high-rise apartment building.

Iskander launch from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast

No missiles have been detected in Ukrainian airspace. Possibly the work of Russian air defence.

Russian forces have captured the village of Synkivka, Kupyansk direction, Kharkiv Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~389.
Total land area: ~1.64 km².

The fighting for Synkivka lasted approximately 2 years, 5 months.