No Tu-95MS have departed from Olenya Airbase. Ukrainian monitors are being schizo again.

We likely wont see departures for another 2-3 hours.

Russian forces have captured the village of Hai, Pokrovsk'e direction, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: 28.
Total land area: ~0.36 km².

Russian forces have captured the village of Platonivka, northern flank of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~42.
Total land area: ~0.21 km².

Russian forces have captured the village of Dvorichanske, Velykyi Burluk direction, Kharkiv Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~351.
Total land area: ~0.50 km².

According to Israeli Channel 12, the strike targeted a number of Hamas senior officials. Both Israeli Channel 12 and Lebanese media report that the attack failed, and that no officials were killed.

One more Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase to Diaghilev Airbase. This brings the total number of bombers stationed at Diaghilev to 9, at least 4 of which are equipped with missiles.

Currently, ~50 Geran-2 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace. New ones are flying in.

Drones are attacking Kharkiv and Odesa cities.

No new activity has been recorded on strategic frequencies. The number of drones in Ukrainian airspace is decreasing.

Additionally, new redeployments of Tu-95MS bombers from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, are underway, which suggests that preparations are still ongoing.

These new developments suggest that an attack tonight is unlikely, however nothing is certain at this moment.

One "Varshavyanka" submarine has been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea. Total possible salvo of 6 Kalibr cruise missiles.

It looks like it will be a daytime attack.

6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, flying southeast through the Republic of Karelia towards the launch lines.

They will reach the different launch lines in the following amount of time:

Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast - 1 hr 25 mins.
Engels District, Saratov Oblast - 1 hr 50 mins.
Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast - 2 hrs 15 mins.
Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast (Caspian Sea) - 2 hrs 45 mins.

The Kh-101 cruise missiles will primarily target energy and gas infrastructure in western Ukraine. Geran-2 drones are currently flying there.

Approximate location of the Tu-95MS bomber group.

Earlier, 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from near Kusk City impacted Berestyn, Kharkiv Oblast.

Currently, at least 40 Geran-2 drones are flying in the direction of the Ladyzhyn Thermal Power Plant in Vinnytsia Oblast.

Close to 100 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Possible launches of Kalibr cruise missiles from 1 "Admiral Makarov" Frigate off the coast of Cape Myskhako, Krasnodar Krai. As many as 8 were launched.

If the launches were real, they should enter Ukrainian airspace via Kherson Oblast in the next 30 minutes.

4 Tu-160 strategic bombers are also airborne from Ukrainka Airbase and are flying southwest through the Republic of Bashkortostan towards the launch lines in Engels, Saratov Oblast.

They will arrive there at around the same time as the Tu-95MS bomber group from Olenya, which is flying southeast through the Republic of Mordovia towards the launch lines in Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast.

Explosions in Ladyzhyn, Vinnytsia Oblast. Geran-2 drones are now striking the thermal power plant there.

Unidentified missiles to Zaporizhzhia, probably Kalibrs

The missiles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast were MLRS.

3 pairs of Kalibrs have entered Kherson Oblast, and changed course to the north after entering Mykolaiv Oblast.

4 Tu-160s are now flying over Astrakhan Oblast towards the launch lines in the Limansky District, over the Caspian Sea.