Fun fact that a lot of people need to hear: both sides advance in Ukraine.
Just because the side you don't support makes progress, it doesn't automatically mean its fake or cope, even though one country obviously advances more than the other.
Just because the side you don't support makes progress, it doesn't automatically mean its fake or cope, even though one country obviously advances more than the other.
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Ukrainian source Deepstate has provided some additional information regarding the deteriorating situation for Ukraine in the Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk'e directions. This, along with some information from other sources allows for us to paint a clearer picture of the events that unfolded here over the past 10 days.
They report that 50% of the Ukrainian soldiers defending the area of Uspenivka were withdrawn to improve the deteriorating situation near Vyshneve. At the time, Russia had quickly captured this relatively large village, crossed two rivers, and were advancing well beyond it to the north and west. These reinforcements somewhat stabilised the situation there, but it left a large gap in the defence of the Uspenivka area.
As a result, at least 200 Russian soldiers from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, 218th Tank Regiment, and the 394th Motorized Rifle Brigade were able to enter Uspenivka, and bring it under their control relatively quickly. The 394th brigade consolidated in the village while the 14th brigade and 218th regiment began pushing to the nearby villages of Nove, Novouspenivske, Solodke, and Rivnopillya.
In order to try save the situation, one unspecified battalion of Ukraine's 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade was deployed to Uspenivka, but suffered heavy casualties due to Russia having already brought in significant reinforcements to the village, and just because of the fact that the battalion was low on manpower.
A severe lack of coordination in cohesion in this sector, along with commanders not accurately reporting the situation to headquarters or neighbouring units, is partially responsible for these rapid losses in ground that should have been able to hold for some time. Critical manpower shortages also play a major role in this. These levels of incompetence, shortages, and inability to coordinate properly are beyond anything I have ever seen for Ukraine so far.
As a result of this chain of events over the past 10 days, Russia has been able to fully compromise Ukrainian defences on the western bank of the Yanchur River and is now pushing through the fields further west. Fighting is ongoing for the villages of Nove, Novouspenivske, and Rivnopillya, while Solodke was captured a few days ago. Rybne is also under threat of being encircled due to Russian advances near Zlahoda and Solodke, and all the while, the newly reinforced front further north is still not stabilised.
They report that 50% of the Ukrainian soldiers defending the area of Uspenivka were withdrawn to improve the deteriorating situation near Vyshneve. At the time, Russia had quickly captured this relatively large village, crossed two rivers, and were advancing well beyond it to the north and west. These reinforcements somewhat stabilised the situation there, but it left a large gap in the defence of the Uspenivka area.
As a result, at least 200 Russian soldiers from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, 218th Tank Regiment, and the 394th Motorized Rifle Brigade were able to enter Uspenivka, and bring it under their control relatively quickly. The 394th brigade consolidated in the village while the 14th brigade and 218th regiment began pushing to the nearby villages of Nove, Novouspenivske, Solodke, and Rivnopillya.
In order to try save the situation, one unspecified battalion of Ukraine's 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade was deployed to Uspenivka, but suffered heavy casualties due to Russia having already brought in significant reinforcements to the village, and just because of the fact that the battalion was low on manpower.
A severe lack of coordination in cohesion in this sector, along with commanders not accurately reporting the situation to headquarters or neighbouring units, is partially responsible for these rapid losses in ground that should have been able to hold for some time. Critical manpower shortages also play a major role in this. These levels of incompetence, shortages, and inability to coordinate properly are beyond anything I have ever seen for Ukraine so far.
As a result of this chain of events over the past 10 days, Russia has been able to fully compromise Ukrainian defences on the western bank of the Yanchur River and is now pushing through the fields further west. Fighting is ongoing for the villages of Nove, Novouspenivske, and Rivnopillya, while Solodke was captured a few days ago. Rybne is also under threat of being encircled due to Russian advances near Zlahoda and Solodke, and all the while, the newly reinforced front further north is still not stabilised.
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Ukrainian forces were geolocated being shelled and hit by a Russian drone-dropped explosive in southern Chasiv Yar.
Based on my analysis of the footage, this advance took place sometime after October 4, therefore being well after the city was captured in July.
Based on my analysis of the footage, this advance took place sometime after October 4, therefore being well after the city was captured in July.
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Russian FPV drones continue to fly relatively freely over Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. Interestingly, this video shows that Ukraine has begun constructing trenches in the city park.
Last night, around 10 Russian Geran-2 drones struck energy infrastructure in the city of Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast. FPV drones were also heard over the city at the time of the attack. Power outages and voltage surges were reported.
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Last night, at least 7 Russian Geran-2 drones attacked energy infrastructure in the city of Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast. Power outages occurred as a result. A Grom-E1 rocket-powered glide-bomb also impacted the city, although it's unclear if it also targeted energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, due to previous missile and drone strikes in Kharkiv City, large parts of the city remain without power.
Meanwhile, due to previous missile and drone strikes in Kharkiv City, large parts of the city remain without power.
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Overnight, several Russian Geran-2 drones attacked targets in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The towns of Vasylivka and Prosyana were hit. In Prosyana, the train station was the target, as evidenced by NASA FIRMS data. A large fire broke out afterwards and secondary detonations could be heard.
The towns of Vasylivka and Prosyana were hit. In Prosyana, the train station was the target, as evidenced by NASA FIRMS data. A large fire broke out afterwards and secondary detonations could be heard.
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Three Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles struck the Voronezh CHP-1 Power Plant in Voronezh Oblast.
Two missiles struck Boiler House no. 1, while a third likely hit the heat generation building. A fire broke out but was extinguished relatively quickly. Some power and heat disruptions were reported in the city.
Two missiles struck Boiler House no. 1, while a third likely hit the heat generation building. A fire broke out but was extinguished relatively quickly. Some power and heat disruptions were reported in the city.
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1-2 Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles have impacted the T-25 110/35/6 kV electrical substation in the city of Taganrog, Rostov Oblast. A large fire can be seen burning there, and disruptions in power, communication and water supply is reported.
Coordinates: 47.21244, 38.87464
Coordinates: 47.21244, 38.87464
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While everyone focuses on Pokrovsk, the situation in the Hulyaipole direction continues to deteriorate even further for Ukraine.
Russia is advancing to new areas while facing minimal resistance and is now approaching the rear of Hulyaipole itself.
Russia is advancing to new areas while facing minimal resistance and is now approaching the rear of Hulyaipole itself.
Regarding the Myrnohrad pocket, I think a lot of people are significantly overestimating the number of Ukrainian soldiers encircled there.
Myrnohrad is a big city, and when you include its surroundings there are a lot of other positions to hold. But Ukraine has become increasingly reliant on drones, often spreading infantry very thin across lines, creating a disorganised and often incoherent ground defence. Myrnohrad is an example of this, and there are a lot of nearby settlements that are good for concentrations of drone operators.
Additionally, many Ukrainian soldiers actually escaped this pocket back when it was still a salient. This is what allowed for Russia to penetrate deeper into the northern and southern parts of the city.
For an area of its size, with a significantly reduced garrison, I estimate that there are anywhere between 300 and 700 Ukrainian soldiers currently trapped there. It's impossible to know how many right now, but with the state the war is in today and other patterns observed from this front, it will be less than many people expect.
Myrnohrad is a big city, and when you include its surroundings there are a lot of other positions to hold. But Ukraine has become increasingly reliant on drones, often spreading infantry very thin across lines, creating a disorganised and often incoherent ground defence. Myrnohrad is an example of this, and there are a lot of nearby settlements that are good for concentrations of drone operators.
Additionally, many Ukrainian soldiers actually escaped this pocket back when it was still a salient. This is what allowed for Russia to penetrate deeper into the northern and southern parts of the city.
For an area of its size, with a significantly reduced garrison, I estimate that there are anywhere between 300 and 700 Ukrainian soldiers currently trapped there. It's impossible to know how many right now, but with the state the war is in today and other patterns observed from this front, it will be less than many people expect.
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A short time ago, two Russian MiG-31Ks departed from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and launched two Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at Starokostyantyniv Airbase in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
Both missiles impacted the airbase. Starkostyantyniv is known to house Su-24 tactical bombers which are used for glide-bomb strikes on frontline areas as well as storm shadow cruise missiles strikes, and has the capability to house F-16s and Mirage-2000 fighters.
Interestingly, the MiG-31Ks used the new launch lines in southwestern Ryazan Oblast again. This is the second recorded instance of this taking place, with the first happening during the attacks on Ozerne Airbase, Zhytomyr Oblast a week ago on November 3.
Both missiles impacted the airbase. Starkostyantyniv is known to house Su-24 tactical bombers which are used for glide-bomb strikes on frontline areas as well as storm shadow cruise missiles strikes, and has the capability to house F-16s and Mirage-2000 fighters.
Interestingly, the MiG-31Ks used the new launch lines in southwestern Ryazan Oblast again. This is the second recorded instance of this taking place, with the first happening during the attacks on Ozerne Airbase, Zhytomyr Oblast a week ago on November 3.
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Ukrainian sea drones are once again attacking the Tuapse Port in Krasnodar Krai. One impact has been recorded at Pier 167.
Coordinates: 44.100401, 39.058302
Coordinates: 44.100401, 39.058302
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