One thing I've found interesting about Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is how intact the city infrastructure is. You'd think that for such an intense and long battle, both cities would be destroyed at a Bakhmut level, or even Vovchansk or Marinka levels.
Interestingly, most buildings in both cities remain intact for civilians. Damage is obviously extensive, but if you look at some of the videos from the ground, there are still curtains and roofs on houses, with damage being limited to broken windows and damaged roofs.
However, this is for the low-rise buildings. Obviously, the high-rise blocks have largely been burnt out or partially collapsed. Myrnohrad has more high-rises, so naturally it received more damage than Pokrovsk.
But nevertheless, if you compare it to cities that also experienced large, prolonged battles, it is less than usual. It reminds me somewhat of Selydove.
Interestingly, most buildings in both cities remain intact for civilians. Damage is obviously extensive, but if you look at some of the videos from the ground, there are still curtains and roofs on houses, with damage being limited to broken windows and damaged roofs.
However, this is for the low-rise buildings. Obviously, the high-rise blocks have largely been burnt out or partially collapsed. Myrnohrad has more high-rises, so naturally it received more damage than Pokrovsk.
But nevertheless, if you compare it to cities that also experienced large, prolonged battles, it is less than usual. It reminds me somewhat of Selydove.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ง๐ซ๐ณ๐ช - The unprecedented collapse of the security situation in the Sahelian nations - Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM is on the brink of establishing an empire, the group controls more territory in the Sahel than the Malian and Burkina militaries combined.
Following the catastrophic failures of the Malian and Burkinabe militaries, backed by the Russian Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group), Bamako and Ouagadougou are now on the verge of an incredible collapse to JNIM.
Mali has yet to regain border access to Algeria, all operations failed horribly, leaving scores of dead Russian operatives. Bamako is now on the brink of losing its Mauritania border too. The most startling situation is Mali and Burkina Faso have just ONE remaining access point to Niger โ via Kantchari, Burkina Faso, to Niamey, Niger.
Meanwhile, the situation in neighboring Niger deteriorates rapidly too. JNIM have expanded into the north and southwest of Niger, with Islamic State affiliate Lakurawa increasing control in the south of the country, operating out of northern Nigeria. For the first time the Tuareg separatists, Azawad Liberation Front, AFL, have begun active operations in Niger. Meanwhile in the southeast of Niger, Boko Haram's second largest zone of operation has become Niger, overtaking Chad.
Rerum Novarum's maps show the current situation in the Sahel compared to July of 2024, just 16 months ago.
Note:
- The maps do not show JNIM's area of operations in Mauritania.
- The maps do not show Boko Haram's area of operations in Nigeria and Chad.
- The full extent of Islamic State and affiliated groups in Nigeria are not shown.
- The full extent of JNIM's operation in other neighbouring countries are not shown.
- Toubou Tribal Army positions in the northeast Niger are not shown.
Al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM is on the brink of establishing an empire, the group controls more territory in the Sahel than the Malian and Burkina militaries combined.
Following the catastrophic failures of the Malian and Burkinabe militaries, backed by the Russian Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group), Bamako and Ouagadougou are now on the verge of an incredible collapse to JNIM.
Mali has yet to regain border access to Algeria, all operations failed horribly, leaving scores of dead Russian operatives. Bamako is now on the brink of losing its Mauritania border too. The most startling situation is Mali and Burkina Faso have just ONE remaining access point to Niger โ via Kantchari, Burkina Faso, to Niamey, Niger.
Meanwhile, the situation in neighboring Niger deteriorates rapidly too. JNIM have expanded into the north and southwest of Niger, with Islamic State affiliate Lakurawa increasing control in the south of the country, operating out of northern Nigeria. For the first time the Tuareg separatists, Azawad Liberation Front, AFL, have begun active operations in Niger. Meanwhile in the southeast of Niger, Boko Haram's second largest zone of operation has become Niger, overtaking Chad.
Rerum Novarum's maps show the current situation in the Sahel compared to July of 2024, just 16 months ago.
Note:
- The maps do not show JNIM's area of operations in Mauritania.
- The maps do not show Boko Haram's area of operations in Nigeria and Chad.
- The full extent of Islamic State and affiliated groups in Nigeria are not shown.
- The full extent of JNIM's operation in other neighbouring countries are not shown.
- Toubou Tribal Army positions in the northeast Niger are not shown.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
Photo
๐ฒ๐ฑ - Current situation in Bamako, the capital of Mali:
JNIM have begun an active blockade of the city, while their attacks on fuel supplies have become popular, the group have also struck convoys of almost all goods and supplies going heading to the capital.
Several countries have advised their citizens to leave the country immediately, including the United States.
Rerum Novarum's map shows the 8 different routes into Bamako:
- Four routes are (partially) under JNIM control, RN5, RN7, RN27 and RN3.
- Three routes are contested, RN24, RR6 and RN6.
- Mali has a single reliable supply route, the RN26 highway.
JNIM have begun an active blockade of the city, while their attacks on fuel supplies have become popular, the group have also struck convoys of almost all goods and supplies going heading to the capital.
Several countries have advised their citizens to leave the country immediately, including the United States.
Rerum Novarum's map shows the 8 different routes into Bamako:
- Four routes are (partially) under JNIM control, RN5, RN7, RN27 and RN3.
- Three routes are contested, RN24, RR6 and RN6.
- Mali has a single reliable supply route, the RN26 highway.
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AMK Mapping
One thing I've found interesting about Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is how intact the city infrastructure is. You'd think that for such an intense and long battle, both cities would be destroyed at a Bakhmut level, or even Vovchansk or Marinka levels. Interestinglyโฆ
Also another thing to consider with this is that there are less Ukrainian soldiers to target nowadays, so that would contribute to less damaged buildings.
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The Ukrainian SSO claims that it struck a transport-loading vehicle for Iskander-M ballistic missiles near the village of Ovsyannikovo, Kursk Oblast, likely with UAVs, on October 4.
I can confirm that transportation and loading of Iskander-M and Iskander-K missiles were taking place in this area of Kursk Oblast at around this date. The claims remain unconfirmed, but they line up with what was happening.
Additionally, they reported that they hit and destroyed a 1L122 "Garmon" radar station on duty near the village of Nizhniy Reutets, Kursk Oblast.
I can confirm that transportation and loading of Iskander-M and Iskander-K missiles were taking place in this area of Kursk Oblast at around this date. The claims remain unconfirmed, but they line up with what was happening.
Additionally, they reported that they hit and destroyed a 1L122 "Garmon" radar station on duty near the village of Nizhniy Reutets, Kursk Oblast.
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Yesterday, at least 1 Tu-95MS strategic bomber redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, back to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, after it was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. The true number of Tu-95MS that redeployed is unknown, but we should find out in the next 1-3 days.
Additionally, 1 Tu-95MS carried out a training mission from Engels-2 Airbase yesterday afternoon, where it carried out simulated launches of missiles with electronic warfare from the old launch lines, which are no longer used, over Guryanovo Training Ground, Saratov Oblast (the new launch lines are slightly further southwest near the village of Uzmore).
Interestingly, this Tu-95MS from Engels-2 has not been known to conduct simulated launches of missiles over the past few months, and has only carried out ordinary, scheduled training missions, often for younger pilots. This could signal an imminent return to combat duty, alongside the other strategic bombers currently at Ukrainka Airbase.
Additionally, 1 Tu-95MS carried out a training mission from Engels-2 Airbase yesterday afternoon, where it carried out simulated launches of missiles with electronic warfare from the old launch lines, which are no longer used, over Guryanovo Training Ground, Saratov Oblast (the new launch lines are slightly further southwest near the village of Uzmore).
Interestingly, this Tu-95MS from Engels-2 has not been known to conduct simulated launches of missiles over the past few months, and has only carried out ordinary, scheduled training missions, often for younger pilots. This could signal an imminent return to combat duty, alongside the other strategic bombers currently at Ukrainka Airbase.
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Vovchansk looks like it's finally being cleaned up.
Russia controls nearly two thirds of the city and has advanced past most of the flattened areas which are much harder to hold. Also, Ukraine has lost most of their strongholds in the city and is currently in constant retreat.
Russia controls nearly two thirds of the city and has advanced past most of the flattened areas which are much harder to hold. Also, Ukraine has lost most of their strongholds in the city and is currently in constant retreat.
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Forwarded from Playfra - Maps & Analyses
Some more about Stepnohirsk.
Russian forces report that Ukrainian UAV numbers have increased, which severely complicates their advancements in the area.
According to some of their estimates, we're talking of about 120 crews, with some belonging to the National Guard and GUR. They provide recon, strikes on Russian forward groups and logistics control.
GUR operators specifically have "RAM-2X" drones, and other UAV battalions have "Rubak" and "Shark" recon drones.
As reported some time ago, these drones are being used en masse at distances of over 60km, easily reaching Vasylivka, primary Russian supply hub in the area.
Russian forces report that Ukrainian UAV numbers have increased, which severely complicates their advancements in the area.
According to some of their estimates, we're talking of about 120 crews, with some belonging to the National Guard and GUR. They provide recon, strikes on Russian forward groups and logistics control.
GUR operators specifically have "RAM-2X" drones, and other UAV battalions have "Rubak" and "Shark" recon drones.
As reported some time ago, these drones are being used en masse at distances of over 60km, easily reaching Vasylivka, primary Russian supply hub in the area.
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Update on the Pokrovsk direction:
Active fighting continues within Pokrovsk's city limits. The northern part of the city remains a grey zone, with some more consolidation from the southeast. Small Russian and Ukrainian assault groups continue to clear each other out of positions in what has become a very fluid and dynamic area, with no defined line of contact.
In northeastern Pokrovsk, Ukrainian units in the high-rise part of the Dinas District have begun attempts at withdrawing to Rivne and appear to have been somewhat successful. However, they are withdrawing into a larger, cut-off pocket, so most/all of them won't escape the area. Russian building-by-building clearing operations continue in the Dinas District, where the Ukrainians are still putting up resistance. It's likely that the soldiers there are not fully aware of the situation in the bottleneck of the larger Myrnohrad pocket. Active clearing operations also continue in the shrinking grey zone in the low-rise residential areas of eastern Pokrovsk.
As for the bottleneck, Russian DRGs were able to infiltrate into the small, two-street residential area. If assault groups consolidate here, a physical encirclement of Myrnohrad will be made. But that would not make much difference, as any movement in and out of the city is practically impossible right now. Additionally, Russian DRGs infiltrated further to the next pig farm along the road to the rear of Pokrovsk and reached positions beyond it. No consolidation has occurred here yet.
Active fighting continues within Pokrovsk's city limits. The northern part of the city remains a grey zone, with some more consolidation from the southeast. Small Russian and Ukrainian assault groups continue to clear each other out of positions in what has become a very fluid and dynamic area, with no defined line of contact.
In northeastern Pokrovsk, Ukrainian units in the high-rise part of the Dinas District have begun attempts at withdrawing to Rivne and appear to have been somewhat successful. However, they are withdrawing into a larger, cut-off pocket, so most/all of them won't escape the area. Russian building-by-building clearing operations continue in the Dinas District, where the Ukrainians are still putting up resistance. It's likely that the soldiers there are not fully aware of the situation in the bottleneck of the larger Myrnohrad pocket. Active clearing operations also continue in the shrinking grey zone in the low-rise residential areas of eastern Pokrovsk.
As for the bottleneck, Russian DRGs were able to infiltrate into the small, two-street residential area. If assault groups consolidate here, a physical encirclement of Myrnohrad will be made. But that would not make much difference, as any movement in and out of the city is practically impossible right now. Additionally, Russian DRGs infiltrated further to the next pig farm along the road to the rear of Pokrovsk and reached positions beyond it. No consolidation has occurred here yet.
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Ukrainian UAVs attacked Volgograd last night. At least three impacts were recorded.
At least two drones impacted the Volgograd Oil Refinery (48.48916, 44.62722), where a large fire can be seen burning.
One drone impacted a high-rise residential building, however it's unclear if it was affected by Russian electronic warfare.
At least two drones impacted the Volgograd Oil Refinery (48.48916, 44.62722), where a large fire can be seen burning.
One drone impacted a high-rise residential building, however it's unclear if it was affected by Russian electronic warfare.
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Last night, multiple Ukrainian HIMARS GMLRS struck a large Russian ammunition depot near Donetsk City. As a result, a massive explosion occurred due to secondary detonations. A large fire broke out afterwards.
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At least three Ukrainian UAVs struck the Kostroma GRES Thermal Power Plant in the city of Volgorechensk, Kostroma Oblast. A fire is now burning there.
Coordinates: 57.45806, 41.17486
Coordinates: 57.45806, 41.17486
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Last night, a large-scale Russian Geran-2 drone attack was carried out on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three main settlements were hit: Vasylkivka, Petropavlivka, and Kamianske.
At least 20 drones impacted the city of Kamianske, targeting the thermal power plant and railway substation. Large fires were seen burning at both of these places. [Media 2 & 3]
At least 7 drones targeted the town of Petropavlivka. The target is unknown, and there are no major substations there.
At least 4 drones targeted the town of Vasylkivka. The target there was something in the town, and therefore not the nearby 150 kV substation. [Media 1]
At least 20 drones impacted the city of Kamianske, targeting the thermal power plant and railway substation. Large fires were seen burning at both of these places. [Media 2 & 3]
At least 7 drones targeted the town of Petropavlivka. The target is unknown, and there are no major substations there.
At least 4 drones targeted the town of Vasylkivka. The target there was something in the town, and therefore not the nearby 150 kV substation. [Media 1]
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