There is an increased threat of a large-scale, combined Russian missile attack on Ukraine in the next 5 days, not including Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from strategic aviation.

The attack would involve Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Iskander-K cruise missiles, and hundreds of Geran-2 drones. The highest threat is to Kyiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, especially for gas and energy infrastructure.

As of now, nothing is certain, but there have been actions noted that suggest preparations for a large attack.

Once this war is over, I think a lot of people are going to consider the fall of Pokrovsk as the "turning point" for why Russia won.

This is not the case. The fall of Pokrovsk will be just one thing in a chain of events that trend towards collapse for Ukraine, and there is still much more to come. Attritional warfare prioritises degrading your enemy's ability to fight, and the territory you gain in the meantime is - for the most part - a biproduct of successful attrition.

There wasn't really a turning point for this war, as Russia is the larger country, with superior capabilities, and the ability to keep up the fight far longer than Ukraine, meaning they are destined to win unless something drastic and revolutionary happens. There are many reasons for this, of which I have outlined in the past.

Pokrovsk is just the "new Bakhmut" - the city that the media focuses on. You could even consider it Zelensky's PR city. I don't think Pokrovsk will be forgotten like the 2023 Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive, or the 2024-2025 Kursk offensive, however, as it will probably be labelled as the turning point further down the line.

Currently, there are 40 Tu-95MS strategic bombers stationed at Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast.

30 Tu-95MS are not used and have remained stationary for a long time.
1 Tu-95MS is there purely for training purposes.
7 Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, to Ukrainka Airbase, and will be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
2 Tu-95MS redeployed from Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, to Ukrainka Airbase, and will also be equipped with missiles.

The most interesting news is that 4 Tu-160s were previously stationed there, 1 of which was used for training purposes. On October 1, maintenance of 3 Tu-160s used for combat missions was carried out.

Since then, 1 IL-76MD cargo plane landed there, carrying Kh-101 missiles, which were equipped to the 3 Tu-160s. The 3 Tu-160s equipped with missiles redeployed back to Engels-2 overnight and have since landed there.

Update from the Pokrovsk direction:

The battle for Pokrovsk is approaching its end as the parts of the city begin to come under Russian control.

In the northern part of the city, Russian forces established control over new positions in the northernmost residential neighbourhoods, fully establishing themselves along the southern bank of the Hrishynka River. Additionally, they advanced from the area of School no. 14 and the northwestern industrial zone, to the remaining residential streets not yet under Russian control, capturing new positions towards the northern outskirts.

In the northeastern part of Pokrovsk, Russian forces consolidated in the southern part of the high-rise district and operationally encircled the remaining Ukrainian formations in the district. To the southeast, they made additional progress in the low-rise residential areas towards the eastern outskirts of the city, establishing control over most of the rest of the buildings there.

The most important news comes from the bottleneck of the Myrnohrad pocket. After entering the high-rise district and compromising it as a blocking position against attempts to physically cut off Myrnohrad, Russian forces advanced beyond northeastern Pokrovsk, past the cemetery, and to the highway, where they entrenched in the windbreaks. From there, they entered and captured the soft drinks factory and infiltrated into the northwestern part of Rivne.

On the northern end of the bottleneck, the Russians advanced from their positions near the pig farm and reached the high-rise intersection, establishing full control over it and the surrounding positions. They then went on to advance west down the road, where they have reached the next pig farm complex.

Currently, there is a ~1.3 km corridor of open fields and a small, disconnected residential area consisting of two short streets connecting the Myrnohrad pocket with the rest of the front. This area is entirely in the grey zone, and movement in and out of the pocket is now practically impossible. The vast majority of formations still in the pocket will either be killed or captured.

Meanwhile, north of Pokrovsk, Russian forces began counterattacking against the Ukrainian infiltrations in northern Rodynske. They were able to quickly retake the northern low-rise residential area, and begin assaults on the Ukrainian soldiers entrenched in the three-story buildings. Extremely fierce fighting is ongoing here, with both sides making use of extensive fire power. Some Ukrainian soldiers have been encircled, while others still reside in the grey zone.

+ ~4.57 in favour of Russia.

Take with a grain of salt but... Siversk 🟠

Can confirm. They entered from the south around 2 days ago.

Map correction in Pokrovsk:

Some Ukrainian forces remain entrenched in the high-rise buildings of the Dinas District in northeastern Pokrovsk. They are effectively cut off from the rest of the Myrnohrad pocket.

Scenes from the Dinas District of Pokrovsk. Russian soldiers are currently clearing it.

It is widely considered to be the last Ukrainian stronghold in the city.

Ukraine could do the funniest thing...

Anyway, sorry for the lack of posts these last couple of days. I've been very busy with irl stuff, as well as some other interesting things you'll see soon 👀

I probably won't return to posting at my usual rates until this weekend, but I'll publish some map updates shortly.

One thing I've found interesting about Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is how intact the city infrastructure is. You'd think that for such an intense and long battle, both cities would be destroyed at a Bakhmut level, or even Vovchansk or Marinka levels.

Interestingly, most buildings in both cities remain intact for civilians. Damage is obviously extensive, but if you look at some of the videos from the ground, there are still curtains and roofs on houses, with damage being limited to broken windows and damaged roofs.

However, this is for the low-rise buildings. Obviously, the high-rise blocks have largely been burnt out or partially collapsed. Myrnohrad has more high-rises, so naturally it received more damage than Pokrovsk.

But nevertheless, if you compare it to cities that also experienced large, prolonged battles, it is less than usual. It reminds me somewhat of Selydove.

🇲🇱 - Current situation in Bamako, the capital of Mali:

JNIM have begun an active blockade of the city, while their attacks on fuel supplies have become popular, the group have also struck convoys of almost all goods and supplies going heading to the capital.

Several countries have advised their citizens to leave the country immediately, including the United States.

Rerum Novarum's map shows the 8 different routes into Bamako:
- Four routes are (partially) under JNIM control, RN5, RN7, RN27 and RN3.
- Three routes are contested, RN24, RR6 and RN6.
- Mali has a single reliable supply route, the RN26 highway.