There are currently ~95 Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace. The vast majority continue to fly to the western regions of Ukraine.
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It seems 8 Tu-95s from Engels-2 Airbase are airborne. Those are all of the bombers at the airbase. Not all of them will launch missiles.
Repeated launches of Geran-2 drones have been reported from:
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Navlya Testing Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.
The number of drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to ~115, ~70 of which are flying through Chernihiv Oblast.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Navlya Testing Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.
The number of drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to ~115, ~70 of which are flying through Chernihiv Oblast.
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Over 400 Geran-2 drones are expected to take part in the attacks on Ukraine tonight. They will play their usual role of hitting targets alongside missiles, and saturating air defence for more missile impacts.
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Possible launches of Ukrainian Neptune missiles from Odesa to Crimea
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AMK Mapping
Possible departures of 1 Tu-160 and 1 Tu-95MS from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. Clarifying.
It is now confirmed that no Tu-160s are airborne. 8 Tu-95s are flying in Saratov Oblast, course unknown - possibly circling.
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Keep in mind, unusually large numbers of cruise missiles are not expected to be launched tonight, despite how many bombers are airborne. It will likely be less than 40 Kalibrs, Kh-101s, and Kh-22s.
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Explosions in Rivne and Volyn Oblasts. The first Geran-2 drones are beginning to strike their targets.
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AMK Mapping
Possible launches of Ukrainian Neptune missiles from Odesa to Crimea
The Neptune missiles are flying towards Anapa, Krasnodar Krai. This is where the Russian Kalibr carriers are stationed.
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AMK Mapping
5 Geran-2 drones just entered Polish Airspace.
Approximate flight routes. They are still very close to the border, but were on the Polish side at one point.
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AMK Mapping
Approximate flight routes. They are still very close to the border, but were on the Polish side at one point.
Updated map: the Gerans are now more than 20 km deep into Polish Airspace, heading for the city of Zamosc. Other drones are flying towards the border from Volyn Oblast.
Polish F-35 and F-16 fighters are still operating over eastern Poland. No attempts have been made to shoot down the drones.
There are discrepancies in tracking of the drones in Polish Airspace, likely due to a lack of reliable information. There will be a slight delay in my updates as I try to figure out what is flying where.
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AMK Mapping
Initial reports of Polish fighter jets engaging the Gerans.
F-35s are beginning to shoot down the Gerans as they approach Zamosc. 2 interceptions have been reported.
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Initial and very much unconfirmed reports of a drone strike on something near Zamosc, Poland.
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AMK Mapping
Initial and very much unconfirmed reports of a drone strike on something near Zamosc, Poland.
Additional sources are reporting a Geran strike on something in Poland.
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Reports of Polish ground-based air defence activity in eastern Poland.
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