The airspace surrounding Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast has been closed from midnight on September 10, to 11:59pm. As many as 6 Tu-22M3s may launch Kh-22 cruise missiles at Ukraine during the attack tonight.

Possible departures of 1 Tu-160 and 1 Tu-95MS from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast.

Clarifying.

Sections of airspace in the area of the launch zones for MiG-31Ks in Tambov and Lipetsk Oblasts have been closed. There is a possibility of launches of Kinzhal hypersonic Aeroballistic missiles tonight, but this is not definite.

So far, 2 Tu-95s are confirmed to have taken off from Engel-2 Airbase.

A third Tu-95MS has departed from Engels-2 Airbase.

A fourth Tu-95MS has departed from Engels-2 Airbase.

A fifth Tu-95MS has departed from Engels-2 Airbase.

A sixth Tu-95MS has departed from Engels-2 Airbase. This should be the last one.

Possibly a 7th Tu-95MS departure from Engels-2 Airbase. There could be double-counting with these aircraft, but in theory as many as 8 Tu-95s could have been stationed there.

There are currently ~95 Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace. The vast majority continue to fly to the western regions of Ukraine.

It seems 8 Tu-95s from Engels-2 Airbase are airborne. Those are all of the bombers at the airbase. Not all of them will launch missiles.

Repeated launches of Geran-2 drones have been reported from:

Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Navlya Testing Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.

The number of drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to ~115, ~70 of which are flying through Chernihiv Oblast.

Over 400 Geran-2 drones are expected to take part in the attacks on Ukraine tonight. They will play their usual role of hitting targets alongside missiles, and saturating air defence for more missile impacts.

Possible launches of Ukrainian Neptune missiles from Odesa to Crimea

It is now confirmed that no Tu-160s are airborne. 8 Tu-95s are flying in Saratov Oblast, course unknown - possibly circling.

Keep in mind, unusually large numbers of cruise missiles are not expected to be launched tonight, despite how many bombers are airborne. It will likely be less than 40 Kalibrs, Kh-101s, and Kh-22s.

Explosions in Rivne and Volyn Oblasts. The first Geran-2 drones are beginning to strike their targets.

The Neptune missiles are flying towards Anapa, Krasnodar Krai. This is where the Russian Kalibr carriers are stationed.

5 Geran-2 drones just entered Polish Airspace.

Approximate flight routes. They are still very close to the border, but were on the Polish side at one point.

Polish F-16s are airborne in eastern Poland.