This launch maneuver was likely real. It was carried out by 5-7 Tu-95s and 1 Tu-160.

A second Buyan-M corvette has been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea. The total possible salvo increases to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Kalibr launches from the Black Sea. They are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in the next ~30 minutes.

The Kalibrs were launched from near Gelendzhik, Krasnodar Krai, and are expected to fly towards Beryslav, Kherson Oblast.

Repeated Kalibr launches

14-16 Kalibrs were launched in total.

The first Kalibrs are entering Ukrainian airspace via Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast.

The first group of Kalibrs is flying to Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast. Northwestern course.

Kalibr group 1 flew over Snihurivka, towards eastern Voznesenskyi District, Mykolaiv Oblast.

A 2nd group of Kalibrs has entered Ukrainian airspace, also via Kakhovka. A minimum of 2 missiles in this group.

A third group of missiles entered Ukrainian airspace via Beryslav, Kherson Oblast.

Group 1 continues to fly towards Pivdennoukrainsk.

Group 2 flies towards Veselynove.

10+ missiles in Ukrainian airspace, all in Mykolaiv Oblast flying northwest.

Kalibr group 1 is flying west towards the Odesa-Vinnytsia Oblast border.

Group 2 is flying past Veselynove, Mykolaiv Oblast.

Group 3 is flying towards the Baskhtanka - Pivdennoukrainsk area, Mykolaiv Oblast.

Correction on the missiles:

Kalibr groups 1 & 2 flew south of Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast, towards Podilsk, Odesa Oblast. Now they have changed course towards southeastern Vinnytsia Oblast.

Group 3 is following behind.

Repeated launch maneuvers were carried out by Tu-95MS/160 strategic bombers, likely from Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast. We will find out if the second launch maneuvers were real or not in the next 10-15 minutes.

Kalibr group 1 has entered southwestern Vinnytsia Oblast. Groups 2 & 3 are following behind.

Still around 10 missiles recorded in Ukrainian airspace.

Kalibr group 1 is flying towards Vinnytsia City. It will likely bypass the city from the south and fly to Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

Kalibr group 2 has entered southeastern Vinnytsia Oblast, flying on the same course.

Kalibr group 3 follows behind group 2.

Kalibr group 1 is bypassing Vinnytsia City from the south, flying on a northwestern course between the city and Zherynka.

Kalibr group 2 is flying north towards Nemyriv, Vinnytsia Oblast.

Kalibr group 3 continues to follow group 2.

Kalibr group 1 changed course to the west and entered eastern Khmelnytskyi Oblast, flying south of Khmelnytskyi City.

Kalibr group 2 continues to fly north away from the rest of the missiles, in the direction of Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast.

Kalibr group 3 is now following behind Kalibr group 1.

Kalibr group 1 is flying towards the southern outskirts of Khmelnytskyi City.

Kalibr group 2 changed course to the northeast flying towards Kyiv.

Kalibr group 3 is approaching the southern outskirts of Vinnytsia, flying on a northwestern course.

Kalibr group 1 is flying west past Khmelnytskyi City towards Ternopil Oblast.

No updates from group 2.

Kalibr group 3 continues to fly northwest, and has passed Vinnytsia City.

Kalibr group 2 changed course to Ivankiv, Kyiv Oblast.

No changes to groups 1 & 2.