Update from Kursk - Snagost sector:

Geolocated footage has finally confirmed the large Ukrainian advance in and around Snagost, with Ukrainian forces now being geolocated less than 3km from the Seym river.

Ukrainian forces captured the villages of Tolstyi Lug, Pokrovskii, Obukhovka, Upsenovka, Byakhovo, Snagost, Apanasovka, and Vishnevka.

Tolstyi Lug and Pokrovskii were taken near the beginning of the operation, however control over these villages was only visually confirmed just now. From there, Ukrainian forces village hopped all the way to Snagost where heavy fighting ensued. The settlement changed hands multiple times before Ukrainian forces finally established solid control over it. From there, building off their momentum, the AFU advanced to the village of Vishnevka, while also branching off from Snagost, attacking and capturing the village of Apanasovka.

Upsenovka was also captured, likely on the same day that the operation was launched on Gordeevka. This forced a Russian withdrawal from positions in and around Byakhovo.

As for now, heavy fighting is ongoing for Komarovka and Krasnooktyabr'skoe, with the goal being to solidfy control over a section of the eastern bank of the Seym river, completely cutting off supplies from the Russian groupings in southern Glushkovsky district.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have likely captured the village of Komyshivka and the nearby trench fortifications by the Vovcha river. This puts Ukrainian trench fortifications in the blue into a semi-encirclement.

Reports are already coming in that Ukraine has withdrawn from the next village of Ptyche, and that the Russians are about to enter the village, however this has not been confirmed. If true, assaults on Kalynove will likely start in the next day or two.

Update: More and more sources are reporting that the offensive has not yet started, but troop concentrations are reportedly still being built up in the Polohy and Kamyanske directions. The entire Polohy district is on combat alert. Apparently, it is silent right now and could start at any moment.

As I predicted, Russian forces advanced from Paraskoviivka in the direction of the dachas to the northeast of Kostyantynivka. They likely advanced along the forests to the north of the reservoir using infantry before launching attacks on the dachas. It is unknown whether the attacks on the dachas were succesful or not.

This advance also indicates that Russian forces seized the small, forested areas directly west of Paraskoviivka.

These advances likely have the goal of capturing the dachas and providing a supporting axis for the offensive operations inside the main part of Kostyantynivka.

Topographic map of the current situation in Kursk Oblast based on geolocations and reliable reports.

Black = International border
Red = estimated Russian line of control
Blue = Estimated Ukrainian line of control

The area in between the red and blue is contested, with neither side holding positions there.

This is all approximate and some areas are based on limited information and footage, so it is difficult to draw an accurate representation of the situation on the ground. This is simply my best guess.

However, if you were to take one thing away from this map, that would be that high ground matters. Ukraine is going for the high ground because they know this. Russia is trying to hold the high ground because they know this. It is also the same reason why we are seeing the localised breakthroughs in the Pokrovsk direction.

At around 7pm local time, A platoon of Ukrainian forces supported by multiple armoured vehicles reportedly launched an attack from Chernihiv Oblast into the Klimovsky district of Bryansk Oblast, near the border with Belarus. The attack focused on the border village of Zabrama.

A small arms battle ensued as the AFU tried to cross the Snov river which runs near the border. Remotely controlled explosive charges were also reportedly used.

Russian sources reported that the assault was repelled and that Ukrainian forces retreated back to their original positions.

More information to come.

Overnight, Ukraine launched another large-scale UAV attack on Russian territory. Drones were reported over Belgorod, Rostov, Volgograd, Murmansk, Krasnodar Krai, Kursk, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Saratov and Tambov Oblasts.

It appears that at least 1 UAV struck the Oktyabrsky airfield in Volgograd Oblast. A large fire has broken out as a result.

Russian sources claimed that 5 UAVs were shot down in Rostov Oblast and that 1 was shot down in Krasnodar Krai,

MLRS were also launched at Kurchatov and Kursk city. Russian air defence was active but no damage was reported.

Also, NASA FIRMS data shows multiple fires burning at the airfield.

Russian forces have reportedly advanced further along the railway line to Pokrovsk and entered the town of Novohrodivka. Fighting is reportedly ongoing in the Shankhay and Kishlak microdistricts.

Sources also reported that Russian forces advanced up and along the nearby treelines, likely also attacking from newly captured positions in Orlivka.

Here is a closer-up image of the possible situation in Novohrodivka. The orange arrows are my best guess of how the Russians advanced, but in no way accurately represent how things actually played out.

The key to expanding the area of control are the two 5-story residential buildings on Parkova street. Those will likely be used as a staging ground to expand their area of control into the first high-rise residential block, before advancing to the rest of the buildings.

If I were Ukraine, I would be focusing on those two buildings as much as possible with FPV drones and artillery. I would suggest counterattacks, but I seriously doubt they have the manpower necessary for that.

Following the capture of Komyshivka, Russian forces have likely captured the next village in this direction - Ptyche. Here they likely advanced to the tributary of the Vovcha river and are reportedly already assaulting the settlement of Kalynove to get behind Ukrainian defences in Karlivka.

Update from Kursk Oblast - Sudzha sector:

Geolocated footage from the last couple of days shows two new Ukrainian advances in the Sudzhansky district of Kursk Oblast.

Firstly, Ukrainian forces advanced and captured the village of Martynovka. There are conflicting reports on how this occurred. On the one hand, some sources claim that Ukrainian forces attacked it from the tactical heights to the west and the village of Mykhailovka to the south, capturing the settlement that way, and on the other hand, other sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a flanking attack from the south, attempting to encircle Martynovka, forcing a Russian withdrawal. Either way, Ukrainian forces - after spending a lot of manpower and resources - finally forced the Russians back out of the village and have established positions in a grove further east.

Secondly, Ukrainian forces advanced from the village of Cherkasskoe Porechnoe, capturing the settlements of Kositsa and Russkoe Porechnoe. Heavy battles involving tanks were reported in Russkoe Porechnoe and it took the AFU several days to clear the village. Ukrainian forces then exploited the Russian withdrawal by establishing positions in the forests further north.

Overall, while the Ukrainian Kursk Offensive has slowed down significantly since the first days of the operation, it is still grinding forward in certain areas. However, it is likely to get a lot bloodier in the coming weeks.

Update: It is reported that small groups of Russian forces have already established themselves in the next high-rise buildings (circled in orange), this time on Minchurina street.

The red line indicates the likely front-line.

Geolocated footage and reliable reports indicate that Russian forces continue to advance in the direction of Toretsk and have likely captured the town of Pivnichne.

Here, Russian forces managed to advance by another 1.67km up the railway line through Pivnichne and Druzhba and are now approaching the western outskirts of Druzhba. Russian forces also cleared the rest of northern Pivnichne, capturing the large residential area and approaching the High-rise district in Toretsk known as "Microraion-1".

Additionally, reliable reports suggest that Russian forces captured the Pivnichna mine and the adjacent Terykon (industrial waste heap) following the risk of encirclement of the Ukrainian formations there due to the Russian advance along the highway. If these reports are true, it would mean that Pivnichne has fallen.

And finally, Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces advanced and captured the Artema mines and Terykon and have reached the forests just outside Toretsk itself.

Russian forces reportedly advanced to Kalynove and have entered the settlement, with assault operations underway.

Russian forces are also reportedly simultaneously storming Karlivka.

A Russian source claimed that the Ukrainian 36th Marine brigade has been redeployed to Kursk Oblast.

The 36th Marine brigade was last seen in Vovchansk but has also operated in Krynky before, however, this information on redeployment remains unconfirmed as of the time of writing.

"The Department of State has information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days."

- US embassy to Ukraine.
https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-6/

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in eastern Hrodivka and have now reached the intersection with Kholodna street.

This advance is probably supported by the likely Russian positions in the treelines to the east as they are situation on higher ground compared to the residential areas in Hrodivka.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~230m.

Colours for the map:
Red = confirmed Russian control
Yellow = confirmed Russian advances
Purple = likely Russian control

Reliable reports suggest that Russian forces have entered Toretsk city, and have established themselves in the high-rise district known as "Micro-raion 1"

If these reports are true, then it would indicate that the Russians are ~1.23km from the city centre. It is possible that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in the northwestern part of the micro district along Lesnaya street, although by now I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians have taken full control over it.

The 105th regiment of the NM DPR claimed that Russia captured the town of Hrodivka in the Pokrovsk direction, with the AFU withdrawing 1.5km westwards.

This comes as reports came in of further Russian advances in the treelines south of Hrodivka, and that Russians had reached the central part of the settlement.

None of these reports have been confirmed and I will wait for visual confirmation before adding it to the map as usual.