NAS100 is resting on support as we start the morning off in the NY session. This looks like a strong level of support that price will have to break under if sentiment is still strongly bearish. Otherwise, it could serve as a potential long opportunity post GDP optimism from a lower than expected number.
However, if price were to break this level, we may be looking at another low towards the $14,200s. It's still not a very bullish market right now, and lower lows seem more likely than not. But in case of a switch in sentiment, this index could show resilience at the falling trend line.
- Frank
However, if price were to break this level, we may be looking at another low towards the $14,200s. It's still not a very bullish market right now, and lower lows seem more likely than not. But in case of a switch in sentiment, this index could show resilience at the falling trend line.
- Frank
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One of my favorite features on the EdgeFinder is our Central Bank forecast. The CBF is really good for gauging a central bank's hawkishness or dovishness based on future interest rates and inflation. And there's a chart at the bottom that does it for you too!
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- Frank
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EURUSD is another strong bearish reading on our scanner. At -12, the pair is the most bearish. With COT moving starchily against the euro and into the dollar, price doesn't look bullish any time soon. With retail majority long, we can anticipate further bearishness from the pair.
Although on support, optimism from GDP may not be strong enough going forward. The trend and seasonality indicators suggest more downside for the next few months as well. Overall, the USD is sweeping the euro in every sense.
Although on support, optimism from GDP may not be strong enough going forward. The trend and seasonality indicators suggest more downside for the next few months as well. Overall, the USD is sweeping the euro in every sense.
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It's important to look at all the data the Smart Money Tracker provides because what looked like a bullish bias on gold this week was actually negative. The table shows how many gold positions were open long to short. The bottom chart shows the number of long contracts between gold and USD added. Because the dollar saw an incredible rise in long contracts, it took the reins against the metal and pushed price lower.
Although outpacing the rest of the world, the US is still seeing declines in GDP overall. Seeing this is optimistic for risk-on traders who are looking for less Fed hikes in the future. Outside of inflation itself, the Fed is looking for lower GDP and labor numbers. So, a lower GDP is good for NAS100, but it's unclear if this will be enough to boost morale.
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Gold continues to fall lower after price broke under support in the $1880s. Now the metal is halfway to the low $1800s as Congress failed to reach a consensus for federal spending. The government shutdown looms as government employees fear of being furloughed for an indefinite amount of time. Bond yields remain elevated on the day, however, and recent dollar strength is putting a lot of pressure on the metal. Gold also just went through a death cross pattern after the 50 DMA crossed below the 200 DMA last week for the first time since July of 2022. This is signaling a strong bearish moment for gold now.
The SPX500 is still a very bearish reading on the EdgeFinder as a result of recent events. Retail and COT seem to be mixed in net positioning, although last Friday's report suggested another shift in sentiment. What we can also take away from last week from lower GDP and PCE is that the Fed may consider pausing again in November.
Investors are very much going to pay attention to this week's JOLTS and NFP numbers this week. Expectations are higher job openings and lower NFP. Although analysts are expecting higher openings, the lower number of jobs actually added could be lower, which is what index bulls want to see.
Investors are very much going to pay attention to this week's JOLTS and NFP numbers this week. Expectations are higher job openings and lower NFP. Although analysts are expecting higher openings, the lower number of jobs actually added could be lower, which is what index bulls want to see.
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