NZD/USD - Down 2% This Week
NZD/USD continued it's decline last night — dropping 1.2% into a key level of support. If the level fails to hold, the Kiwi could be at risk to more downside. Open room to fall goes as deep as 0.56000. Buyers at support could take the Kiwi up to recent resistance at 0.61000.
The New Zealand dollar sank because RBNZ cut rates as expected but struck an even more dovish tone than markets anticipated. The cash rate was lowered by 25bps to 3.0%
What caught traders’ attention wasn’t the cut itself, but the fact policymakers lowered their projected floor for rates to 2.55% (down from 2.85%) and revealed that two members even pushed for a larger 50bps cut. The Bank also downgraded its forecasts for growth, jobs, and wage growth, signaling a more cautious outlook for the economy.
Markets raised bets for more easing ahead. Odds now show a 50% chance of another cut in October and full pricing for November, with the implied bottom moving closer to 2.57% from 2.76% before the announcement.
NZD/USD continued it's decline last night — dropping 1.2% into a key level of support. If the level fails to hold, the Kiwi could be at risk to more downside. Open room to fall goes as deep as 0.56000. Buyers at support could take the Kiwi up to recent resistance at 0.61000.
The New Zealand dollar sank because RBNZ cut rates as expected but struck an even more dovish tone than markets anticipated. The cash rate was lowered by 25bps to 3.0%
What caught traders’ attention wasn’t the cut itself, but the fact policymakers lowered their projected floor for rates to 2.55% (down from 2.85%) and revealed that two members even pushed for a larger 50bps cut. The Bank also downgraded its forecasts for growth, jobs, and wage growth, signaling a more cautious outlook for the economy.
Markets raised bets for more easing ahead. Odds now show a 50% chance of another cut in October and full pricing for November, with the implied bottom moving closer to 2.57% from 2.76% before the announcement.
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NASDAQ - More Losses
U.S. stock indexes slipped yesterday after a tech-led selloff. Investors are watching for more retail earnings and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week.
Tech has been driving the recovery since April’s selloff, but i stretched valuations triggered the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s sharpest drop in over two weeks yesterday.
Concerns around government involvement in the sector added to pressure. The Trump administration claims they may take equity stakes in chipmakers in exchange for CHIPS Act grants, following recent revenue-sharing deals with Nvidia and AMD.
For now, this looks like a mild, possibly healthy correction after an extended run-up in tech. A deeper pullback could finally present an opportunity to participate at decent prices.
U.S. stock indexes slipped yesterday after a tech-led selloff. Investors are watching for more retail earnings and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week.
Tech has been driving the recovery since April’s selloff, but i stretched valuations triggered the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s sharpest drop in over two weeks yesterday.
Concerns around government involvement in the sector added to pressure. The Trump administration claims they may take equity stakes in chipmakers in exchange for CHIPS Act grants, following recent revenue-sharing deals with Nvidia and AMD.
For now, this looks like a mild, possibly healthy correction after an extended run-up in tech. A deeper pullback could finally present an opportunity to participate at decent prices.
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EdgeFinder's UK CPI Chart
Inflation in the UK continues to run hot, with CPI rising to 3.6% YoY in July. That’s slightly above June’s 3.4% and still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
CPI YoY: 3.6% (prev. 3.4%)
Inflation trend is climbing back after dipping below 2% late last year. Forecasts pointed to 3.4%, so today’s print came in higher than expected
The stickiness of UK inflation complicates the BOE’s path forward. While growth and labor remain soft, inflation staying above target could slow down the pace of future cuts. For now, sterling gets some support — but longer-term risks still lean on the downside if the economy weakens.
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Inflation in the UK continues to run hot, with CPI rising to 3.6% YoY in July. That’s slightly above June’s 3.4% and still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
CPI YoY: 3.6% (prev. 3.4%)
Inflation trend is climbing back after dipping below 2% late last year. Forecasts pointed to 3.4%, so today’s print came in higher than expected
The stickiness of UK inflation complicates the BOE’s path forward. While growth and labor remain soft, inflation staying above target could slow down the pace of future cuts. For now, sterling gets some support — but longer-term risks still lean on the downside if the economy weakens.
👉Get access now
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why is stagflation especially difficult to fight?
Why is stagflation especially difficult to fight?
Anonymous Quiz
76%
Inflation high + growth weak
7%
Rates are too low
9%
Deflation risk
8%
Currency collapse
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US Indexes - Pullback Continues
US equities extended their losing streak today, with all three major indices down about 0.4% as markets weighed rate outlooks and retail earnings for signs of consumer strength.
The Nasdaq 100 continues to lead this week’s drop, pressured by weakness in tech. FOMC minutes showed policymakers still leaning toward inflation risks over labor market concerns, with some worry about expectations becoming unanchored. Big tech names stayed broadly under pressure.
Jobless claims missed expectations adding some pressure to equities.
US equities extended their losing streak today, with all three major indices down about 0.4% as markets weighed rate outlooks and retail earnings for signs of consumer strength.
The Nasdaq 100 continues to lead this week’s drop, pressured by weakness in tech. FOMC minutes showed policymakers still leaning toward inflation risks over labor market concerns, with some worry about expectations becoming unanchored. Big tech names stayed broadly under pressure.
Jobless claims missed expectations adding some pressure to equities.
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GOLD - Chop Fest
Gold is still chopping gradually lower with no real direction. Most of the downside is tied to Dollar strength rather than any strong risk-off move. Without a flight-to-safety theme, Gold hasn’t found the demand it usually thrives on.
Overall trading remains thin and rangebound. Yesterday’s gains on safe-haven flows from the U.S. tech selloff have mostly held, though the metal continues to drift lower. For now, the market looks set to stay sideways until Powell’s speech on Friday, which could offer clarity on the Fed’s easing path — a key driver for Gold.
Gold is still chopping gradually lower with no real direction. Most of the downside is tied to Dollar strength rather than any strong risk-off move. Without a flight-to-safety theme, Gold hasn’t found the demand it usually thrives on.
Overall trading remains thin and rangebound. Yesterday’s gains on safe-haven flows from the U.S. tech selloff have mostly held, though the metal continues to drift lower. For now, the market looks set to stay sideways until Powell’s speech on Friday, which could offer clarity on the Fed’s easing path — a key driver for Gold.
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EdgeFinder's Indicies Scanner - S&P500
The S&P500 currently scores a 1 (Neutral) on the EdgeFinder, reflecting a mixed backdrop for equities.
Markets have been under pressure this week, led by a tech-driven selloff. Despite strong GDP growth (3.0% vs. 2.5% forecast), softer data in PMIs, retail sales, and NFP is weighing on sentiment.
- COT Data: Heavily short, with ~65% of positioning on the short side.
- Retail Sentiment: Fairly balanced, longs at 45.7% vs shorts at 54.3%.
- Seasonality & Trend: Still positive, offering some support.
Put-Call ratios and sentiment surveys show indecision — not overly bullish or bearish. The neutral score highlights a market caught between solid growth and weakening underlying data, while tech weakness continues to drag the broader index. It's important to note the Put-Call ratio was heavily swayed in a bullish bias earlier in the week — we may be seeing a shift.
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The S&P500 currently scores a 1 (Neutral) on the EdgeFinder, reflecting a mixed backdrop for equities.
Markets have been under pressure this week, led by a tech-driven selloff. Despite strong GDP growth (3.0% vs. 2.5% forecast), softer data in PMIs, retail sales, and NFP is weighing on sentiment.
- COT Data: Heavily short, with ~65% of positioning on the short side.
- Retail Sentiment: Fairly balanced, longs at 45.7% vs shorts at 54.3%.
- Seasonality & Trend: Still positive, offering some support.
Put-Call ratios and sentiment surveys show indecision — not overly bullish or bearish. The neutral score highlights a market caught between solid growth and weakening underlying data, while tech weakness continues to drag the broader index. It's important to note the Put-Call ratio was heavily swayed in a bullish bias earlier in the week — we may be seeing a shift.
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🎁 Start your free demo or 30 day trial
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Price action tells a story—are you reading it correctly? 📉📈
Our FREE Technical Analysis Course walks you through the essential tools used by professional traders to time their entries and exits with confidence. Whether you're brand new or brushing up your skills, this course is packed with actionable insights.
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✅ Candlestick Patterns: Decode price movement like a pro
✅ Trendlines & Moving Averages: Ride the trend or catch reversals
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✅ Building a Technical Bias: Combine tools for stronger trade ideas
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a dovish central bank usually signal?
What does a dovish central bank usually signal?
Anonymous Quiz
21%
Prefers a strong currency
17%
Prefers higher rates
60%
Prefers lower rates
3%
Prefers more exports
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DXY – Testing the Highs
The dollar index is holding near 98.70, close to a two-week high after snapping its recent losing streak. Price is hovering just below the 99.00 resistance zone, where sellers previously capped upside. A clean break above could open a run toward 100.00, while support rests down at 97.80–98.00.
Fundamentally, the move comes as traders scale back aggressive Fed cut bets. Markets now price about a 70% chance of 25 bps in September, down from 75% a day earlier. Inflation risks remain a headwind to deeper easing, and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later today could be the catalyst for direction. Until then, dollar momentum leans firm, but the next move depends on whether Powell validates the cut narrative or tempers expectations.
The dollar index is holding near 98.70, close to a two-week high after snapping its recent losing streak. Price is hovering just below the 99.00 resistance zone, where sellers previously capped upside. A clean break above could open a run toward 100.00, while support rests down at 97.80–98.00.
Fundamentally, the move comes as traders scale back aggressive Fed cut bets. Markets now price about a 70% chance of 25 bps in September, down from 75% a day earlier. Inflation risks remain a headwind to deeper easing, and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later today could be the catalyst for direction. Until then, dollar momentum leans firm, but the next move depends on whether Powell validates the cut narrative or tempers expectations.
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Powell’s Comments – Market Reactions
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone at Jackson Hole. He highlighted that the labor market is slowing, with risks now tilted to the downside. Powell admitted tariffs are already pushing consumer prices higher, though he maintained the view that the inflation effects will likely be short-lived. At the same time, he stressed the Fed cannot allow tariff-driven price spikes to become a lasting inflation problem. On growth, Powell acknowledged GDP has slowed notably as consumer spending weakens.
The takeaway is that Powell is walking a fine line—acknowledging inflationary risks from tariffs while also recognizing downside pressures in jobs and growth. He avoided pre-committing to a specific policy path, but the tone suggests the Fed is leaning toward easing, with upcoming data being the final driver.
Markets reacted quickly. Traders increased bets on easing, with September now carrying a 90% chance of a cut. At the moment: stocks up, dollar down.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone at Jackson Hole. He highlighted that the labor market is slowing, with risks now tilted to the downside. Powell admitted tariffs are already pushing consumer prices higher, though he maintained the view that the inflation effects will likely be short-lived. At the same time, he stressed the Fed cannot allow tariff-driven price spikes to become a lasting inflation problem. On growth, Powell acknowledged GDP has slowed notably as consumer spending weakens.
The takeaway is that Powell is walking a fine line—acknowledging inflationary risks from tariffs while also recognizing downside pressures in jobs and growth. He avoided pre-committing to a specific policy path, but the tone suggests the Fed is leaning toward easing, with upcoming data being the final driver.
Markets reacted quickly. Traders increased bets on easing, with September now carrying a 90% chance of a cut. At the moment: stocks up, dollar down.
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Powell noted that while tariffs could add some upward pressure to prices, the Fed sees that risk as short-lived, not a lasting driver of inflation. The bigger concern right now is the labor market, which is showing signs of slowing. That shift in focus means the Fed is signaling it’s ready to adjust policy if needed, with traders adding to bets for a September cut.
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US Economic Heatmap
The EdgeFinder heatmap has been flashing early cracks in the US labor market — weaker job openings, softer NFP, and initial claims ticking higher.
Today, Fed Chair Powell’s speech added confirmation. He noted that labor market risks are rising and that growth has slowed, while also acknowledging tariff-driven inflation risks. The balance? The Fed is leaning more concerned about jobs than runaway inflation.
With that backdrop, the market has resumed fully pricing in two cuts by year-end. For traders, the takeaway is clear: the data and Fed tone are aligning — and the EdgeFinder continues to provide that leading context before the headlines hit.
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The EdgeFinder heatmap has been flashing early cracks in the US labor market — weaker job openings, softer NFP, and initial claims ticking higher.
Today, Fed Chair Powell’s speech added confirmation. He noted that labor market risks are rising and that growth has slowed, while also acknowledging tariff-driven inflation risks. The balance? The Fed is leaning more concerned about jobs than runaway inflation.
With that backdrop, the market has resumed fully pricing in two cuts by year-end. For traders, the takeaway is clear: the data and Fed tone are aligning — and the EdgeFinder continues to provide that leading context before the headlines hit.
➡️ Use code TGVIP for 10% Off EdgeFinder
🎁 Start your free demo or 30 day trial
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What happened to September Fed cut odds after Powell’s speech?
What happened to September Fed cut odds after Powell’s speech?
Anonymous Quiz
59%
Rose to ~90%
19%
Rose to ~73.5%
9%
Stayed flat
14%
Dropped to 10%
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