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Gold Stabilizes as Weaker Dollar and Ceasefire Progress Offer Support

Gold is holding 14% off all-time highs as markets weigh progress in U.S.–Iran talks. There’s growing momentum toward extending the ceasefire, but uncertainty still lingers — especially with continued military presence in the region.

The move higher is being supported by a weaker dollar and a more cautious Fed tone. As rate expectations ease, that takes some pressure off gold and helps stabilize price.

That said, the bigger picture hasn’t fully flipped. Gold is still down meaningfully from earlier in the conflict, as higher yields and tighter policy have capped upside in a non-yielding asset.

For gold to really get back in play, you need a clean shift — lower yields, a more dovish central bank stance, and easing inflation pressures. Most of that likely comes with a full resolution to the conflict.

- Alan

Risk Currencies Are Getting Bid Up. Here's an update on AUD.

AUD/USD is pushing back toward relative highs as ceasefire extensions and continued progress in talks bring risk back into the market. You’re seeing capital rotate back into risk-sensitive currencies, with the Aussie leading.

On the macro side, AUD has an added tailwind — the RBA already has a tightening bias due to elevated inflation. That yield advantage, combined with improving sentiment, is supporting the move higher.

Markets are now looking ahead to jobs data. A strong print reinforces the case for another hike and adds fuel to the rally. A miss, though, shifts the narrative quickly — especially with signs that growth could be slowing, putting the RBA in a tougher position.

Technically, momentum is to the upside, but it’s data-dependent from here. The next leg will be driven by whether the macro can validate the move.

- Alan

So... we have ANOTHER COT Chart Dropping today: back-to-back!

We've renamed this to "COT Trends", and the other new COT chart to "COT Velocity"

Visualize institutional accumulation and distribution using the latest COT data. This tool plots net long exposure over time, allowing you to track "Smart Money" momentum across multiple assets simultaneously. Toggle symbols to compare historical positioning and identify high-conviction trends.

- Nick

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VIX Down 48% From Peak War Fear Levels

The VIX has cooled back below $20, now down roughly 48% from the Middle East war highs. Seems like the panic bid is gone, and markets are no longer pricing in immediate tail risk.

What this tells you is sentiment has shifted. We’ve gone from fear-driven positioning to a more neutral, even slightly complacent tone. As geopolitical tensions ease and headlines improve, hedging demand falls off, and that pressure comes out of volatility.

For markets, this typically supports risk. Lower vol means tighter spreads, more confidence in positioning, and a smoother path for equities to grind higher. But at the same time, a sharp drop like this can also mean markets are getting a bit too comfortable.

So while the move lower in VIX reflects stability and improving sentiment, it also leaves less room for error. Any negative surprise — whether it’s geopolitics, inflation, or policy — can reprice volatility quickly from these levels.

- Alan

The Fed Is Now Balancing Inflation and Growth

Yields are stabilizing around 4.28% after a volatile week, as markets start to lean toward a potential resolution in the Middle East. Growing optimism around a deal — and even partial reopening of key shipping routes — has helped ease some of the inflation pressure tied to oil.

That’s been the driver behind the recent pullback in yields. As energy prices cool, markets are dialing back expectations for further tightening and reassessing the rate path.

But it’s not a clean shift. The Fed is still in wait-and-see mode, balancing persistent inflation risks with a labor market that remains stable. Rate cut expectations have been scaled back significantly from earlier in the year.

From a macro standpoint, this is a balancing act. Oil and tariffs are keeping inflation elevated, while labor conditions continue to hold up. That leaves yields rangebound as markets try to figure out what matters more — inflation or growth.

- Alan

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GBP/USD Direction Is Getting Cloudy

UK developments are coming in mixed, but with the Strait of Hormuz open, inflation fears tied to energy are easing — and that’s pulling UK yields lower across the curve.

As a result, rate expectations are being repriced. Markets have scaled back how aggressive they think the Bank of England will be, with far fewer hikes priced in versus just a week ago.

At the same time, BoE officials aren’t fully aligned. Some are still pushing the need to stay focused on inflation, while others are more comfortable with holding steady as uncertainty plays out.

From a macro lens, the UK is in a tough spot. Inflation risks are still there, but growth isn’t collapsing — recent data actually showed some resilience. So now it becomes a balancing act between sticky inflation and a fragile growth backdrop.

For GBP/USD, this leaves things more rangebound. Direction from here likely depends on how inflation evolves and whether the BoE leans back into tightening or stays patient.

- Alan

Happy Friday! De-Escalation Momentum Picks Up

Oil is down nearly 15% on the back of very constructive headlines out of the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is confirmed open during the ceasefire, with Iran signaling it will remain accessible — a major shift given how critical that route is for global supply.

Markets are quickly repricing the risk. What was a major supply shock for nearly two months is now being unwound, with additional tailwinds coming from potential US-Iran agreements and further negotiations ahead.

This is a clean risk-on signal. Energy is cooling, pressure is coming off inflation, and markets are responding accordingly.

But be careful chasing this move. Oil doesn’t move in straight lines — and after a drop like this, you have to expect some level of stabilization or bounce, especially if headlines stall or reverse.

- Alan