Cincinnati Reds -1 @ (-115/1.86)
*Note* if your book does not have the -1 market. Use the following link to help: https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/
With the odds use used, we are staking 0.59 units on the ML and 0.41 units on the -1.5 market. As shown in the example above. Please use the link above to use with your own odds if you decide to follow.
Cincinnati will send out Sonny Gray to pitch. As one of the Reds most reliable starters he comes into this game with a 2.05 ERA, allowing two runs or less in 4/5 starts. His 2.37 xFIP validates how well he’s pitched this year. Against the Cardinals lifetime his allowed only an average of 0.241 and had yet to allow a single home to any of the Cardinals hitters through 88 plate appearances. In fact he’s only allowed 3 extra base hits. If history holds true and Gray is pitching well again, the Cardinals likely will not have many scoring opportunities and runners in scoring position. The final thing we like about Gray are the pitching splits. Gray has been a solid pitcher throughout his career but his pitching style has shown marginally better numbers against left handed batters in his career. A 0.669 OPS to right handed batters and a 0.645 OPS to left handed batters. He will face up to 7 lefties in the Cardinals lineup tonight.
On the other side, we cannot say the same about Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright as his biggest struggle is left handed batters. At first glance, he’s pitched very well this year with a 1.64 ERA. However a strong indicator of regression shows he has an xFIP of 4.69. Whenever the different between an ERA and xFIP is this big of a difference, it is typically a spot we like to exploit. To make matters worse, the Reds will also have up to 7 lefties in their lineup. Wainwright since the start of last season had struggled significantly more against lefties. Against righties he has had a wOBA of 0.297 but against lefties he’s allowed a wOBA of 0.349. On top of that he’s allowed a walk rate of 12.1% to lefties. The Reds also are ranked 5th in MLB in terms of walks per game. In this situation, everything is lining up for the Reds to potentially do well on offense. In terms of going with the full game opposed to the F5 markets, we are taking advantage of a potentially tired Cardinals bullpen. Due to their COVID outbreak, they’ve had to make up games recently and have played 8 games since Saturday. Therefore we see an advantage for the Reds in all aspects of this game and we see -1 at this price as solid value.
*Note* if your book does not have the -1 market. Use the following link to help: https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/
With the odds use used, we are staking 0.59 units on the ML and 0.41 units on the -1.5 market. As shown in the example above. Please use the link above to use with your own odds if you decide to follow.
Cincinnati will send out Sonny Gray to pitch. As one of the Reds most reliable starters he comes into this game with a 2.05 ERA, allowing two runs or less in 4/5 starts. His 2.37 xFIP validates how well he’s pitched this year. Against the Cardinals lifetime his allowed only an average of 0.241 and had yet to allow a single home to any of the Cardinals hitters through 88 plate appearances. In fact he’s only allowed 3 extra base hits. If history holds true and Gray is pitching well again, the Cardinals likely will not have many scoring opportunities and runners in scoring position. The final thing we like about Gray are the pitching splits. Gray has been a solid pitcher throughout his career but his pitching style has shown marginally better numbers against left handed batters in his career. A 0.669 OPS to right handed batters and a 0.645 OPS to left handed batters. He will face up to 7 lefties in the Cardinals lineup tonight.
On the other side, we cannot say the same about Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright as his biggest struggle is left handed batters. At first glance, he’s pitched very well this year with a 1.64 ERA. However a strong indicator of regression shows he has an xFIP of 4.69. Whenever the different between an ERA and xFIP is this big of a difference, it is typically a spot we like to exploit. To make matters worse, the Reds will also have up to 7 lefties in their lineup. Wainwright since the start of last season had struggled significantly more against lefties. Against righties he has had a wOBA of 0.297 but against lefties he’s allowed a wOBA of 0.349. On top of that he’s allowed a walk rate of 12.1% to lefties. The Reds also are ranked 5th in MLB in terms of walks per game. In this situation, everything is lining up for the Reds to potentially do well on offense. In terms of going with the full game opposed to the F5 markets, we are taking advantage of a potentially tired Cardinals bullpen. Due to their COVID outbreak, they’ve had to make up games recently and have played 8 games since Saturday. Therefore we see an advantage for the Reds in all aspects of this game and we see -1 at this price as solid value.
Reds -1 ❌
Part of the game but it’s another lead that slips away. Unfortunately it’s been somewhat of the narrative so far... Cardinals score 3 in the bottom of the 9th and win 5-4. (5-8, -3.69 units)
Part of the game but it’s another lead that slips away. Unfortunately it’s been somewhat of the narrative so far... Cardinals score 3 in the bottom of the 9th and win 5-4. (5-8, -3.69 units)
Texas Rangers ML @ (-121/1.83)
After the horrific beat last night, let’s end the week more positively. Tonight we’ll back a pitcher we avoided Kolby Allard. As we stated last night, we didn’t like Allard’s control issues against an Angels team historically disciplined at the plate. We were wrong, walks thus far this year with Allard have not been as big of an issue this year as he’s only allowed 4 walks through 12 innings pitched. In terms of his matchup tonight, we believe it fits his strengths. Since the start of last season, Allard has allowed a wOBA of just 0.309 to right handed batters (0.352 to lefties). Tonight he may face as many as 6 right handed hitters in the Seattle lineup. The thing we like is the fact Seattle struggles more against left handed pitchers like Allard. (Won’t post a long list of numbers here but across the board you’ll find these stats to hold true: https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/sea) With this in mind, the splits are working for us on both sides. Watching him pitch thus far, his control issues appear to be improving, perhaps a sign of positive regression in year two and being more comfortable.
Now we shift to the Rangers offense against Seattle’s pitcher Nick Margevicius. He’s a pitcher who has been pretty bad against hitters from both sides of the plate since the start of last year. Margevicius made 29 starts between Double-A and the majors last season, but could not get things under control had a 1.8 HR/9 in Double-A to go along with a 4.30 ERA. The power and amount of hard contact he gave in the minor league level last year is a concern. Overall in MLB his numbers are even less encouraging has he’s allowed lefties to have a wOBA of 0.427 and righties a wOBA of 0.331. Most of these stats were inflated from last year as he’s done somewhat well this year, but note the sample size of innings pitched. In five appearances, he’s only gone more than 3 1/3 inning once. Other than that we’ve seen him on a limited basis so we’d tend to side with history opposed to a small sample of games. Allard and Margevicius are a bit different in terms of potential. Allard was a 1st round pick in 2015 while Margevicius was a 7th round pick in 2017. I’d buy more stock on Allard before I did on Margevicius. However, the real difference in this game is the potential of a short start for Margevicius and the poor relief pitchers for Seattle. This season thus far, Seattle has had the 3rd worst bullpen ERA in MLB at 6.16 and an xFIP of 5.76. Margevicius has only pitched 5 innings twice in his last 15 MLB appearances. Factoring this in along with the Mariners recent struggles (as a team they’re 1-8 in their last 9 games and have only won 4 times in the month of August). Not a team nor situation we can trust. Allard, despite his struggles last game (Coors Field and high altitudes likely to blame somewhat), we’re willing to take the Rangers at these odds. Watching Allard against the Angels, his command looked promising. It is only his second year in MLB but this could be a time to buy at a decent price and back him against a struggling team that has a pitching situation tonight that slightly favors Texas from our point of view.
After the horrific beat last night, let’s end the week more positively. Tonight we’ll back a pitcher we avoided Kolby Allard. As we stated last night, we didn’t like Allard’s control issues against an Angels team historically disciplined at the plate. We were wrong, walks thus far this year with Allard have not been as big of an issue this year as he’s only allowed 4 walks through 12 innings pitched. In terms of his matchup tonight, we believe it fits his strengths. Since the start of last season, Allard has allowed a wOBA of just 0.309 to right handed batters (0.352 to lefties). Tonight he may face as many as 6 right handed hitters in the Seattle lineup. The thing we like is the fact Seattle struggles more against left handed pitchers like Allard. (Won’t post a long list of numbers here but across the board you’ll find these stats to hold true: https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/sea) With this in mind, the splits are working for us on both sides. Watching him pitch thus far, his control issues appear to be improving, perhaps a sign of positive regression in year two and being more comfortable.
Now we shift to the Rangers offense against Seattle’s pitcher Nick Margevicius. He’s a pitcher who has been pretty bad against hitters from both sides of the plate since the start of last year. Margevicius made 29 starts between Double-A and the majors last season, but could not get things under control had a 1.8 HR/9 in Double-A to go along with a 4.30 ERA. The power and amount of hard contact he gave in the minor league level last year is a concern. Overall in MLB his numbers are even less encouraging has he’s allowed lefties to have a wOBA of 0.427 and righties a wOBA of 0.331. Most of these stats were inflated from last year as he’s done somewhat well this year, but note the sample size of innings pitched. In five appearances, he’s only gone more than 3 1/3 inning once. Other than that we’ve seen him on a limited basis so we’d tend to side with history opposed to a small sample of games. Allard and Margevicius are a bit different in terms of potential. Allard was a 1st round pick in 2015 while Margevicius was a 7th round pick in 2017. I’d buy more stock on Allard before I did on Margevicius. However, the real difference in this game is the potential of a short start for Margevicius and the poor relief pitchers for Seattle. This season thus far, Seattle has had the 3rd worst bullpen ERA in MLB at 6.16 and an xFIP of 5.76. Margevicius has only pitched 5 innings twice in his last 15 MLB appearances. Factoring this in along with the Mariners recent struggles (as a team they’re 1-8 in their last 9 games and have only won 4 times in the month of August). Not a team nor situation we can trust. Allard, despite his struggles last game (Coors Field and high altitudes likely to blame somewhat), we’re willing to take the Rangers at these odds. Watching Allard against the Angels, his command looked promising. It is only his second year in MLB but this could be a time to buy at a decent price and back him against a struggling team that has a pitching situation tonight that slightly favors Texas from our point of view.
Rangers ML ❌
The downhill slide continues and that is probably an understatement. Completely wrong about Allard in particular tonight. Deserving L in that regard. One of our worst weeks ever in terms of baseball tips but hopefully a week we can learn from
The downhill slide continues and that is probably an understatement. Completely wrong about Allard in particular tonight. Deserving L in that regard. One of our worst weeks ever in terms of baseball tips but hopefully a week we can learn from
Toronto Blue Jays ML @ (-116/1.86)
Liking the spot for Toronto here with Hyun-jin Ryu on the mound for the Blue Jays. We’ll back the positive momentum going for him as he has really stepped things up lately. He’s faced this Rays team once this year in his first start of the season allowing 4 runs over 4 2/3 innings pitched. Overall in his last 3 games he’s shown substantial improvement allowing two runs and only 9 hits over his last 17 season innings pitched. We like the matchup for him here in his rematch. It’s easier to overlook his problems the first time due to the lack of preparation time. His last three games have been similar to his results last year. Since the start of last season, Ryu (although with the Dodgers), Ryu has had an xFIP of 3.28, a wOBA allowed to righties of 0.277 and a wOBA to allowed to lefties at 0.238. This Rays team is primarily right handed with 7 of the 9 projected hitters in their lineup. A wOBA allowed of 0.277 is still ideal. It’s worth noting that Ryu throws about 40% sinkers/changeups to right handed batters. Against changeups which account for about 26% of his total pitches, the Rays have 5 hitters in their lineup who have a wOBA below 0.325 against this pitch type. Ryu is a player who mixes up his pitches in general, but given his overall effectiveness lately, we see value at these odds.
On the other side, the Rays will have a bullpen game most likely. Aaron Slegers will start but likely won’t pitch more than an inning or two. The Rays bullpen will take over the rest of the way. Overall, the Ray relief pitchers have been great since the start of last season but this is a spot where situationally they may not be in the most ideal spot. First the Rays have been hit hard by some injuries recently. They’ve already lost 4 pitchers due to injury and although this is still a solid bullpen, the lack of depth may be a concern if one of the pitchers tonight has a rough game. The other concern about a bullpen game against a hot team like Toronto is the new rule in MLB this year where a pitcher has to face a minimum of 3 hitters. Overall, all of the Rays pitchers have allowed a wOBA of 0.345 to right handed hitters and 0.285 to left handed hitters. The Blue Jays projected lineup is unique as it alternates lefty, righty, lefty. The Rays tend to be an analytical team and if this were last year, this reasoning would not matter as much to us however the 3 batter rule could play a role in this matchup. With the potential for more pitchers, comes the potential of a smaller margin for error. Toronto is a team heating up on offense scoring at least 5 runs in 6/7. We can not deny the Rays are playing terrific baseball as well but we see the form being about equal in this spot. Nonetheless at pretty close to even money, we see an opportunity to back a proven pitcher Ryu trending up against a Tampa Bay bullpen that is certainly talented but has a growing list of injuries that may challenge its depth in the not so distant future.
Liking the spot for Toronto here with Hyun-jin Ryu on the mound for the Blue Jays. We’ll back the positive momentum going for him as he has really stepped things up lately. He’s faced this Rays team once this year in his first start of the season allowing 4 runs over 4 2/3 innings pitched. Overall in his last 3 games he’s shown substantial improvement allowing two runs and only 9 hits over his last 17 season innings pitched. We like the matchup for him here in his rematch. It’s easier to overlook his problems the first time due to the lack of preparation time. His last three games have been similar to his results last year. Since the start of last season, Ryu (although with the Dodgers), Ryu has had an xFIP of 3.28, a wOBA allowed to righties of 0.277 and a wOBA to allowed to lefties at 0.238. This Rays team is primarily right handed with 7 of the 9 projected hitters in their lineup. A wOBA allowed of 0.277 is still ideal. It’s worth noting that Ryu throws about 40% sinkers/changeups to right handed batters. Against changeups which account for about 26% of his total pitches, the Rays have 5 hitters in their lineup who have a wOBA below 0.325 against this pitch type. Ryu is a player who mixes up his pitches in general, but given his overall effectiveness lately, we see value at these odds.
On the other side, the Rays will have a bullpen game most likely. Aaron Slegers will start but likely won’t pitch more than an inning or two. The Rays bullpen will take over the rest of the way. Overall, the Ray relief pitchers have been great since the start of last season but this is a spot where situationally they may not be in the most ideal spot. First the Rays have been hit hard by some injuries recently. They’ve already lost 4 pitchers due to injury and although this is still a solid bullpen, the lack of depth may be a concern if one of the pitchers tonight has a rough game. The other concern about a bullpen game against a hot team like Toronto is the new rule in MLB this year where a pitcher has to face a minimum of 3 hitters. Overall, all of the Rays pitchers have allowed a wOBA of 0.345 to right handed hitters and 0.285 to left handed hitters. The Blue Jays projected lineup is unique as it alternates lefty, righty, lefty. The Rays tend to be an analytical team and if this were last year, this reasoning would not matter as much to us however the 3 batter rule could play a role in this matchup. With the potential for more pitchers, comes the potential of a smaller margin for error. Toronto is a team heating up on offense scoring at least 5 runs in 6/7. We can not deny the Rays are playing terrific baseball as well but we see the form being about equal in this spot. Nonetheless at pretty close to even money, we see an opportunity to back a proven pitcher Ryu trending up against a Tampa Bay bullpen that is certainly talented but has a growing list of injuries that may challenge its depth in the not so distant future.
Nothing for Sunday. Not really seeing anything that stands out.
Already nearing the halfway mark of the MLB regular season. We’re off to a poor start, no denying that. Only 5-10 with the posts/write-ups... so we’ll assess things as we go based on our performance. Everything here is intended to be free and be helpful, so if our process isn’t working, it serves no purpose to share if it’s not going to be profitable. Still around 60% if we account for last year but obviously a bit of volatility with some of them lately, still not good enough nonetheless. Aside from the tips here, these are some of the observations/notes we’ve made so far as the game seems slightly different:
-Game structure and mentality is differently: 60 games vs. 162 games. Games are almost 3 times as important in a shortened season. As a result, I believe there is much more volatility near the end of games. Out of the 10 losses here, 6 of these losses came when our team held a lead at some point (some leads obviously less safe than others) Overall, similar to as you’d see in the playoffs, teams seem to be playing to the end. Not giving up and continuing to play. Bullpens/relief pitchers play a bigger role than ever. Likewise, some managers if they’re losing will rest their better pitchers if losing by a substantial margin. In general the end of game situations have been a bit hit or miss. We need to take more into consideration now than ever.
-Preparation of players: We like to focus on matchups here, which is why perhaps our process is struggling. Typically players are given 8 weeks to prepare, this year it was shortened to 2 weeks. Players have openly admitted the struggles of preparing for the season which is why I believe there is some major differences in some players individual stats. It’s easy to assume some athletes naturally need longer to prepare and in a sport like baseball, factoring in last year’s statistics may be less relevant. In a lot of the write-ups we’ve said (“since the 2019 season..... etc.) We’ve done a lot of that so far, perhaps a mistake in circumstances like these, so maybe it’s time to analyze the 30 game sample we have now.
-Finally the rule changes: No more pitchers batting in the National League, baserunner starting at second base to begin extra innings, and pitchers having to face a minimum of three hitters. All three factors are why totals have been a bit concerning. Our niche here out of all baseball betting markets are unders (F5 and full game). I’d say that accounts for many of our wins since last year. In general, I think a mistake we’ve made is opting for the full game markets this year. For what we do, the stats we use, etc. there are sometimes too many variables to account for late in games. This is not to say we won’t post full game markets however, maybe might get back into F5 markets, etc. It’s easy to complain about “bad beats”, but in the end, it’s not surprising given everything we’ve mentioned.
Just wanted to post these notes here for ourselves and maybe for anyone who takes the time to read what we write. The write-ups are beneficial for us to learn as well. Whether it was 120 people reading or 10 people, there wouldn’t be much of a difference. Will be back with the new week. 5-10, -5.69 units currently, it is what it is. Improvement is needed and will assess things as we go.
Already nearing the halfway mark of the MLB regular season. We’re off to a poor start, no denying that. Only 5-10 with the posts/write-ups... so we’ll assess things as we go based on our performance. Everything here is intended to be free and be helpful, so if our process isn’t working, it serves no purpose to share if it’s not going to be profitable. Still around 60% if we account for last year but obviously a bit of volatility with some of them lately, still not good enough nonetheless. Aside from the tips here, these are some of the observations/notes we’ve made so far as the game seems slightly different:
-Game structure and mentality is differently: 60 games vs. 162 games. Games are almost 3 times as important in a shortened season. As a result, I believe there is much more volatility near the end of games. Out of the 10 losses here, 6 of these losses came when our team held a lead at some point (some leads obviously less safe than others) Overall, similar to as you’d see in the playoffs, teams seem to be playing to the end. Not giving up and continuing to play. Bullpens/relief pitchers play a bigger role than ever. Likewise, some managers if they’re losing will rest their better pitchers if losing by a substantial margin. In general the end of game situations have been a bit hit or miss. We need to take more into consideration now than ever.
-Preparation of players: We like to focus on matchups here, which is why perhaps our process is struggling. Typically players are given 8 weeks to prepare, this year it was shortened to 2 weeks. Players have openly admitted the struggles of preparing for the season which is why I believe there is some major differences in some players individual stats. It’s easy to assume some athletes naturally need longer to prepare and in a sport like baseball, factoring in last year’s statistics may be less relevant. In a lot of the write-ups we’ve said (“since the 2019 season..... etc.) We’ve done a lot of that so far, perhaps a mistake in circumstances like these, so maybe it’s time to analyze the 30 game sample we have now.
-Finally the rule changes: No more pitchers batting in the National League, baserunner starting at second base to begin extra innings, and pitchers having to face a minimum of three hitters. All three factors are why totals have been a bit concerning. Our niche here out of all baseball betting markets are unders (F5 and full game). I’d say that accounts for many of our wins since last year. In general, I think a mistake we’ve made is opting for the full game markets this year. For what we do, the stats we use, etc. there are sometimes too many variables to account for late in games. This is not to say we won’t post full game markets however, maybe might get back into F5 markets, etc. It’s easy to complain about “bad beats”, but in the end, it’s not surprising given everything we’ve mentioned.
Just wanted to post these notes here for ourselves and maybe for anyone who takes the time to read what we write. The write-ups are beneficial for us to learn as well. Whether it was 120 people reading or 10 people, there wouldn’t be much of a difference. Will be back with the new week. 5-10, -5.69 units currently, it is what it is. Improvement is needed and will assess things as we go.
Detroit Tigers - Chicago Cubs Under 5.5 (First Five Innings) @ (-115/1.87)
We believe this is an opportunity to take advantage of a number that we find to be a bit inflated. Comerica Park in Detroit is typically a pitcher friendly ballpark and these two teams are pretty mediocre on offense. Ranking 15th and 16th in runs per game. Obviously the pitchers are the primary factors to analyze. First for the Cubs Alec Mills will get the start. While he’s struggled his last two starts, we see this as a spot for some positive regression against a Tigers lineup that struggles significantly more against right handed pitching this year (taking a look here: https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/det) So far this year Mills has held right handed batters to a wOBA of 0.254 which is comparable to this number of an impressive 0.232 last season. The Tigers will have 5 righties and 4 lefties in the lineup, however out of all the left handed hitters none really have any advantages to right handed pitching, pretty much the same across the board. Not to make excuses for Mills in his last two games, the game against Milwaukee he allowed all of his runs in the 5th and 6th innings against St. Louis it was a 7 inning game, thus one can assume the mentality heading into a shortened game could have been different. The Tigers were the worst team in MLB last year, not an offense I’d be running to back an over with unless the matchup was very good.
Casey Mize will pitch for Detroit who was the number one pick in the 2018 MLB draft. With this in mind, we don’t have a lot of advanced stats to go by, only tendencies. Needless to say, Mize has potential. In his MLB debut he had 7 strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox. We believe he has similar upside again as the Cubs rank 3rd worst in terms of strikeouts per game. It’s just the runs and hits that need to be prevented. He gave up 7 hits and 3 runs in his MLB debut, but had no walks. He relies primarily on his cutter and split finger fastball. His cutter wasn’t doing well in his first game but still managed to get solid production without it. According this Mize, “My cutter is my highest spin rate," Mize said Sunday. "I think up and in (against) lefties is a really quality pitch, maybe a front-door to a righty every now and then. And then I just reduce spin drastically with the splitter and it falls. It's a good combo." It’s a positive quote to hear considering his cutter seems to be his most consistent pitch typically. With the Cubs first 6 hitters in their lineup, only Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber have a wOBA above the average of 0.325. It’s a unique handicap of this game, but this is a spot where we believe his cutter will be more effective. Nonetheless, it’s likely Mize will be more comfortable also in his 2nd game. 3 runs isn’t great but we believe he can at least match this or do slightly better. Factoring both pitchers, we feel 5.5 runs is a fair number and one we’ll take the under with.
We believe this is an opportunity to take advantage of a number that we find to be a bit inflated. Comerica Park in Detroit is typically a pitcher friendly ballpark and these two teams are pretty mediocre on offense. Ranking 15th and 16th in runs per game. Obviously the pitchers are the primary factors to analyze. First for the Cubs Alec Mills will get the start. While he’s struggled his last two starts, we see this as a spot for some positive regression against a Tigers lineup that struggles significantly more against right handed pitching this year (taking a look here: https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/det) So far this year Mills has held right handed batters to a wOBA of 0.254 which is comparable to this number of an impressive 0.232 last season. The Tigers will have 5 righties and 4 lefties in the lineup, however out of all the left handed hitters none really have any advantages to right handed pitching, pretty much the same across the board. Not to make excuses for Mills in his last two games, the game against Milwaukee he allowed all of his runs in the 5th and 6th innings against St. Louis it was a 7 inning game, thus one can assume the mentality heading into a shortened game could have been different. The Tigers were the worst team in MLB last year, not an offense I’d be running to back an over with unless the matchup was very good.
Casey Mize will pitch for Detroit who was the number one pick in the 2018 MLB draft. With this in mind, we don’t have a lot of advanced stats to go by, only tendencies. Needless to say, Mize has potential. In his MLB debut he had 7 strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox. We believe he has similar upside again as the Cubs rank 3rd worst in terms of strikeouts per game. It’s just the runs and hits that need to be prevented. He gave up 7 hits and 3 runs in his MLB debut, but had no walks. He relies primarily on his cutter and split finger fastball. His cutter wasn’t doing well in his first game but still managed to get solid production without it. According this Mize, “My cutter is my highest spin rate," Mize said Sunday. "I think up and in (against) lefties is a really quality pitch, maybe a front-door to a righty every now and then. And then I just reduce spin drastically with the splitter and it falls. It's a good combo." It’s a positive quote to hear considering his cutter seems to be his most consistent pitch typically. With the Cubs first 6 hitters in their lineup, only Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber have a wOBA above the average of 0.325. It’s a unique handicap of this game, but this is a spot where we believe his cutter will be more effective. Nonetheless, it’s likely Mize will be more comfortable also in his 2nd game. 3 runs isn’t great but we believe he can at least match this or do slightly better. Factoring both pitchers, we feel 5.5 runs is a fair number and one we’ll take the under with.
Cubs - Tigers F5 Under 5.5 ❌
7 runs scored, unfortunately 4 of them came in the top of the 4th. As mentioned earlier, will continue to assess. Whether it be variance with close losses or other factors, this will not continue if we can’t produce respectable results here like last MLB season
7 runs scored, unfortunately 4 of them came in the top of the 4th. As mentioned earlier, will continue to assess. Whether it be variance with close losses or other factors, this will not continue if we can’t produce respectable results here like last MLB season
Cincinnati Reds F5 ML (Tie no bet) @ (-107/1.93)
Despite the rough times right now we’ll follow our process and take the Reds with a tie no bet option over the first 5 innings for the following reasons. For the Reds, Luis Castillo will pitch. Matchup wise we’re liking the spot for him in this matchup. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.19, over a full point lower than his ERA of 4.44. We see this as a potential sign of positive regression and believe his matchup with the Brewers tonight makes this possible. Castillo in general relies on strikeouts to generate a lot of his production. He has a 30.3% strikeout currently which is right in line with his 28.9% strikeout last year. This is notable as the Brewers as a team rank 5th worst this season in terms of strikeouts per game as a team at a rate of 31.1% for their projected lineup. Castillo has been a bit up and down this year so far but it’s worth mentioning he has faced the Royals and Tigers twice. He did better in each of the first matchups and struggled more in the 2nd matchup which makes sense with hitters seeing him for the second time. Through 92 at bats total against the Brewers current team, Castillo has held them to a 0.231 average and 0.312 wOBA. Right in line with most of his stats this season. Castillo has upside any given night and what’s promising about this matchup is the Brewers also rank 5th worst in batting average with balls put into the field of play (BABIP). Brewers aren’t making great contact which helps for Castillo.
On the other side, we see Brandon Woodruff. Like Castillo, he’s a solid pitcher. We’re not going to sit here and talk too bad about his ability, however what we will talk about is his historic struggles against lefties. Like Castillo, Woodruff relies on strikeouts with a 28.4% rate. Also in his career, he has shown consistently worse stats against left handed batters. (0.268 average to left handed batters, and a 0.738 OPS) (0.217 average to right handed batters and a 0.589 OPS) Overall, he is great against right handed batters but is more vulnerable against lefties. The problem with these two tendencies is the fact Cincinnati has up to 7 lefties in their lineup and as a team only have a strikeout rate of 21.5% good enough for 7th best in MLB. The Reds have faced Woodruff once already, scoring two runs against him in just 4 innings. Lifetime, the Reds current team has a 0.347 average and 0.425 wOBA against him through 49 at bats. Pretty small sample size but nonetheless most of these stats are favoring the Reds and we see a tie no bet option for the first five innings to be a solid value and an opportunity to finally get us out of this slump.
Despite the rough times right now we’ll follow our process and take the Reds with a tie no bet option over the first 5 innings for the following reasons. For the Reds, Luis Castillo will pitch. Matchup wise we’re liking the spot for him in this matchup. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.19, over a full point lower than his ERA of 4.44. We see this as a potential sign of positive regression and believe his matchup with the Brewers tonight makes this possible. Castillo in general relies on strikeouts to generate a lot of his production. He has a 30.3% strikeout currently which is right in line with his 28.9% strikeout last year. This is notable as the Brewers as a team rank 5th worst this season in terms of strikeouts per game as a team at a rate of 31.1% for their projected lineup. Castillo has been a bit up and down this year so far but it’s worth mentioning he has faced the Royals and Tigers twice. He did better in each of the first matchups and struggled more in the 2nd matchup which makes sense with hitters seeing him for the second time. Through 92 at bats total against the Brewers current team, Castillo has held them to a 0.231 average and 0.312 wOBA. Right in line with most of his stats this season. Castillo has upside any given night and what’s promising about this matchup is the Brewers also rank 5th worst in batting average with balls put into the field of play (BABIP). Brewers aren’t making great contact which helps for Castillo.
On the other side, we see Brandon Woodruff. Like Castillo, he’s a solid pitcher. We’re not going to sit here and talk too bad about his ability, however what we will talk about is his historic struggles against lefties. Like Castillo, Woodruff relies on strikeouts with a 28.4% rate. Also in his career, he has shown consistently worse stats against left handed batters. (0.268 average to left handed batters, and a 0.738 OPS) (0.217 average to right handed batters and a 0.589 OPS) Overall, he is great against right handed batters but is more vulnerable against lefties. The problem with these two tendencies is the fact Cincinnati has up to 7 lefties in their lineup and as a team only have a strikeout rate of 21.5% good enough for 7th best in MLB. The Reds have faced Woodruff once already, scoring two runs against him in just 4 innings. Lifetime, the Reds current team has a 0.347 average and 0.425 wOBA against him through 49 at bats. Pretty small sample size but nonetheless most of these stats are favoring the Reds and we see a tie no bet option for the first five innings to be a solid value and an opportunity to finally get us out of this slump.
Cincinnati Reds F5 ML ❌
Quite frankly comical in many ways. Leading 2-0, the Reds make a costly error in bottom of the 4th inning that leads to 3 Brewers runs. In the top of the 5th inning, the Reds with the bases loaded with no outs fail to score. Bad beats will certainly happen but will say our perception of this MLB season is changing with such situations that we rarely encountered (in our favor or against us last year). Will probably post something more about this in the near future
Quite frankly comical in many ways. Leading 2-0, the Reds make a costly error in bottom of the 4th inning that leads to 3 Brewers runs. In the top of the 5th inning, the Reds with the bases loaded with no outs fail to score. Bad beats will certainly happen but will say our perception of this MLB season is changing with such situations that we rarely encountered (in our favor or against us last year). Will probably post something more about this in the near future
143 picks. 58% win rate. Average odds of (-115/1.87). 9% yield. That’s our MLB results since last June.
Considering we ended the 2019 MLB playoffs on a 0-5 losing streak and have gone 5-12 since the restart, must say we’re impressed with what we’ve done here. But that’s exactly why we have decided to slow this down or take a step back for now. Although the sample size is very small this year, we cannot continue when the confidence in our stats just isn’t there at this moment.
We might be back if we find new strategies or find a bit of confidence with games in this type of environment but we’ve discovered over the last 143 picks what works and what doesn’t using the process we have. I do not think the times we’ve been most profitable is coincidental. This record started back in June right when we had about two months of data to work with. Anyone who takes the time to read our write-ups knows that nearly everything revolves around the stats we have in front of us. Our process has worked in the right circumstances, but as of right now, with the system we like to use, the two of us who decide on these picks find the inconsistencies troubling.
This is not to say other cappers aren’t successful during this shortened season or others haven’t evolved, but right now we’re concerned enough to stop and observe for now. Not once have we hit a stretch like this with baseball during the regular season, and after almost 150 picks, the inconsistency this year may not be coincidental. Not because we don’t know baseball or we don’t believe in our knowledge, but because our process with some of many factors we discussed the other day is pushing our comfort level. Will probably privately be tracking picks over the next week or two to see where we’re at but as of right now, the uncertainty this season has brought hasn’t been welcoming. Amazingly the season will be over pretty soon as it is so will probably update this page again at some point in the not so distant future
Considering we ended the 2019 MLB playoffs on a 0-5 losing streak and have gone 5-12 since the restart, must say we’re impressed with what we’ve done here. But that’s exactly why we have decided to slow this down or take a step back for now. Although the sample size is very small this year, we cannot continue when the confidence in our stats just isn’t there at this moment.
We might be back if we find new strategies or find a bit of confidence with games in this type of environment but we’ve discovered over the last 143 picks what works and what doesn’t using the process we have. I do not think the times we’ve been most profitable is coincidental. This record started back in June right when we had about two months of data to work with. Anyone who takes the time to read our write-ups knows that nearly everything revolves around the stats we have in front of us. Our process has worked in the right circumstances, but as of right now, with the system we like to use, the two of us who decide on these picks find the inconsistencies troubling.
This is not to say other cappers aren’t successful during this shortened season or others haven’t evolved, but right now we’re concerned enough to stop and observe for now. Not once have we hit a stretch like this with baseball during the regular season, and after almost 150 picks, the inconsistency this year may not be coincidental. Not because we don’t know baseball or we don’t believe in our knowledge, but because our process with some of many factors we discussed the other day is pushing our comfort level. Will probably privately be tracking picks over the next week or two to see where we’re at but as of right now, the uncertainty this season has brought hasn’t been welcoming. Amazingly the season will be over pretty soon as it is so will probably update this page again at some point in the not so distant future
It’s already September and just a month left of regular season baseball. As mentioned last week, we wanted to take some time off posting to consider some stuff going forward. As of right now we’ll continue to sit out at this time.
It’s definitely disappointing and will update this page again if anything changes. We’ve been privately tracking picks for the sake of analyzing and will continue to do so. Since we started, the results of the picks are still not consistent enough to be sharing here. Right now we’re not comfortable with the reliability of the stats to either, A): Post at a low volume when there is clearly too much volatility with our selections or B): Post at a higher volume as we “work through the process”.
Our restart here was tough, some unlucky ones as well, but it became clear that using our system from last year in this type of environment was going to be challenging to reach our goal. We still have work to do. For us, it’s more important to have a system that works than to throw out picks we just think are logical. I have no doubt we can figure this out but with only a month left, along with the recent trade deadline and playoff race coming up, it’s cutting it close.
We’ll see what happens, but as of right now we probably won’t be sharing anything here for a while or even potentially until next season. It took us time to get to the level we were at last year hitting around 60-65% most weeks. We like this channel to be thoughtful, analytical and intended to help. Have gotten a lot of positive feedback about this, so it’ll still be worth our time in future seasons if the interest is still there. Maybe will get into postseason baseball as it is expanded this year and there could be some things that are more favorable for low volume. We’ll keep on eye on it and will update this page if we do.
It’s definitely disappointing and will update this page again if anything changes. We’ve been privately tracking picks for the sake of analyzing and will continue to do so. Since we started, the results of the picks are still not consistent enough to be sharing here. Right now we’re not comfortable with the reliability of the stats to either, A): Post at a low volume when there is clearly too much volatility with our selections or B): Post at a higher volume as we “work through the process”.
Our restart here was tough, some unlucky ones as well, but it became clear that using our system from last year in this type of environment was going to be challenging to reach our goal. We still have work to do. For us, it’s more important to have a system that works than to throw out picks we just think are logical. I have no doubt we can figure this out but with only a month left, along with the recent trade deadline and playoff race coming up, it’s cutting it close.
We’ll see what happens, but as of right now we probably won’t be sharing anything here for a while or even potentially until next season. It took us time to get to the level we were at last year hitting around 60-65% most weeks. We like this channel to be thoughtful, analytical and intended to help. Have gotten a lot of positive feedback about this, so it’ll still be worth our time in future seasons if the interest is still there. Maybe will get into postseason baseball as it is expanded this year and there could be some things that are more favorable for low volume. We’ll keep on eye on it and will update this page if we do.