The Fear & Greed Index reached 74 on Aug. 25, its highest level since Oct. 5, 2025 β one day before Bitcoin hit its ATH.
After 106 straight days below 50, sentiment has flipped to 65.
$BTC is up 23% in a week, but ETFs remain net sellers and Coinbase premiums are still negative.
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DeFiLlama + Forgd launched Universal Token Ratings, grading 128 tokens from AAA to CCC using live market data.
$UNI is the only AAA-rated asset, while $MET, $CRV, $RAY, $JTO, $ETHFI, $DOGE, $ZAMA & $PYTH sit at AA.
Ratings can change in near real time.
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What does history say about September?
Backtest of 2013β2025:
β’ September avg: -3.08%
β’ Median: -3.12%
β’ Positive Septembers: 5/13
More interesting: when August gained 20%+, September was negative in both cases:
2017: Aug +65.32% β Sep -7.44%
2013: Aug +30.42% β Sep -1.76%
Historical setup: bearish September bias.
Not a predictionβjust the data.
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Bitcoin jumped $14,775, from $62,818 β $77,593 β a 23.5% weekly surge.
The rally was fueled by:
β’ Strongest US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows since Oct 2025
β’ $2.7B in crypto shorts liquidated
β’ Trump pushing the CLARITY Act
β’ Treasury expanding long-bond buybacks
ETF flows will be key to see if this rally survives into September. π
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πΊπΈ US hashrate share fell from 37.52% β 36.7%
π·πΊ Russia rose 16.42% β 17.2%
π¨π³ China rose 11.28% β 12.2%
π΅πΎ Paraguay jumped 4.03% β 4.7%
Bitcoinβs total hashrate now stands at 892 EH/s, down from 1,000+ EH/s earlier this year.
Meanwhile, mining hashprice has surged 27.4% in 30 days to $40.34/PH/s.
The global mining map is shifting. βοΈ #BTC $BTC
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An attacker drained ~$653,548 from Aviciβs $USDC card collateral vaults, despite docs stating only usersβ wallets could withdraw.
$AVICI crashed ~40% and now trades at $0.32.
The stolen funds equal nearly 20% of its market cap.
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Grayscale says bitcoin:nativeβs 90-day correlation with Nasdaq 100 has fallen from 60%+ to ~33%, while its correlation with gold surged from near 0% to 50%+.
With US debt now above $40T, the debasement trade is back in focus.
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$BTC sits at $78,425 with $54.82B in futures OI and ~$44B in options OI.
Calls still dominate the book at 60.9%, but puts captured 54.5% of the latest options volume.
With max-pain levels clustered around $70Kβ$80K, leverage is backβand traders are paying for protection.
September could get volatile. β οΈ
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After 10 straight monthly declines, Solana is up ~46% in August, trading around $106 and ~80% above its June low.
Whatβs driving it:
β’ $1.34B in U.S. spot SOL ETF inflows
β’ Institutional & corporate buying
β’ 67% vote to cut SOL issuance
β’ Record network activity
β’ $16M+ shorts liquidated
September is the real test. π
$SOL is still ~64% below its ~$293 ATH.
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Watch these 3 closely:
β’ $SUI β Sep 1: 13.53M tokens (~$9.73M)
β’ $ENA β Sep 2: 40.63M (~$6.05M)
β’ $HYPE β Sep 6: 9.92M (~$797M)
Also on watch: $EIGEN, $GUN & $GPS.
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Bitcoin enters September after a 24.95% August rally β powered largely by institutions.
πΊπΈ Spot BTC ETFs pulled in $3.52B in August, reversing the $5.30B net outflow from JanβJul.
But September brings risk:
β’ $BTC historically struggles after $3B+ ETF months
β’ Long-term holders were selling throughout the rally
β’ $3B Binance long liquidation leverage sits below price.
Key levels:
π΄ $77,057 support β risk toward $62,207
π’ $82,656 breakout β $91,719 β $100,782
September could decide whether August was the start of the next leg higher β or a liquidity-driven rally ready to unwind.
π Like & RP: https://x.com/WiseCrypto_/status/2094735637861793931
But September brings risk:
β’ $BTC historically struggles after $3B+ ETF months
β’ Long-term holders were selling throughout the rally
β’ $3B Binance long liquidation leverage sits below price.
Key levels:
π΄ $77,057 support β risk toward $62,207
π’ $82,656 breakout β $91,719 β $100,782
September could decide whether August was the start of the next leg higher β or a liquidity-driven rally ready to unwind.
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π΄ 50 major hacks β highest monthly count this year
πΈ $136.3M lost β down 49.5% from July
π Average loss fell to ~$2.7M per incident
Tectonicβs ~$74M exploit on Cronos dominated the month, but validators froze the network before the attacker could move most of the funds.
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One wallet turned ~$220K into $4.7M+ trading just two memecoins: $CASHCAT & $PONS.
β’ $106.5K β $672.6K on CASHCAT
β’ $113.7K β $4.3M+ on PONS, mostly unrealized
β’ Total profit: $4.7M+
The catch? Thin liquidity. Paper gains can disappear fast if selling hits.
Robinhood Chainβs memecoin gold rush continues.
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Bitcoin is hovering around $77.3K, but the key level is $75.8K.
π Lose $75.8K β bearish setup could strengthen
π Hold it β $83K May high could come back into focus.
The bigger concern: spot demand has turned negative, while long-term holder distribution jumped 61.5%, from 174.5K to 281.9K $BTC.
Pattern or not, supply vs. demand may decide $BTCβs next move. π
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β’ $NPC +206%
β’ $HNT +188.7%
β’ $PROM +154.1%
β’ $DOG +96.7%
β’ $PUMP +96.2%
β’ $STX +88.1%
But $KAITO crashed 67.9%. And history isnβt kind to September: $BTC has closed lower in ~8 of the last 13 years (61.5%).
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A 4H Head & Shoulders breakdown puts $71K in focus if the retest fails.
Seasonality points to ~$72.8K, while Glassnode sees deeper structural support at $62Kβ$65K.
The key level now? Reclaim the necklineβor risk $71K next. π
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But Fidelity isnβt ready to call the bear market over yet.
Low volatility + rising adoption could fuel the next leg higher, while the 4-year cycle still leaves room for another bottom.
Bull market or bounce?
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River estimates that if just 20β40% of global portfolios allocate 2β4% to $BTC, up to $5.3T could flow into Bitcoin.
With a fixed supply and a potential 3x market-value multiplier, Wall Street adoption could trigger a massive repricing.
$840K BTC? π
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