在柏拉图的洞穴里，囚犯们从小就被排成一排，关在一个黑暗的洞穴里。
他们被铁链锁住，身体不能动弹，头也被束缚住，只能面向前方，朝向墙壁。
他们能听能说，但看不见对方，也看不见自己。他们身后是一团火。
火光照出墙上囚犯的影子。
在囚犯和火堆之间，还有人和动物在上演着逼真的戏剧，他们的影子也投射在墙上。
囚犯们只能看到影子，却能听到所有的声音。
他们自然而然地认为世界是由墙上的影子组成的，而他们自己就是墙上的影子。
影子们互相交谈、互动，这一切对囚犯来说都是有意义的，他们认为墙上的所有影子都和自己一样。
囚犯们甚至可以通过看到的影子和听到的声音相互了解，他们还可以通过识别其他影子并预测他们会做什么来获得地位。
现在，想象一下，其中一名囚犯被释放了。
他的镣铐掉在地上，他可以转过头来。
他看到其他囚犯被锁在地上，坐成一排，他惊恐万分。
他还看到了囚犯和火堆之间的演员和动物。
他看到洞口，于是冒险走了出去。
他被光线蒙住了双眼，但终于看清了全貌： 他的一生都坐在山洞里，被铁链锁在地上，以为墙就是它。
现在他意识到，墙壁上的行动主要由几个演员引导，囚犯们提供解说。
现在，他看到了现实世界中的机遇。
他觉得自己有责任回去把情况告诉囚犯，并设法释放他们。
首先，他试图向囚犯们解释傀儡师的存在，但傀儡师们不太可能证实他的说法，因为他们从当前的世界方式中获得了很多个人利益。
然后，他试图向囚犯和洞穴解释这个系统是如何安排的。
不幸的是，他发现囚犯们比他预想的更加抵触。
大多数人都不相信他，他们为什么要相信呢？
在适应了外面的光线后，他无法像他们一样看清阴影。
“真是个笨蛋” 取下锁链需要很大的力气，所以大多数人还是坐着。
这些人在识别、命名和对付影子方面非常擅长，也很成功，所以他们可能不想离开。
也有一些人觉得有必要离开。
离开并不容易；
这需要大量的学习，需要重新定位自己的价值观，从把成功等同于识别阴影，转变为把成功等同于在现实世界中四处走动。
他们被铁链锁住，身体不能动弹，头也被束缚住，只能面向前方，朝向墙壁。
他们能听能说，但看不见对方，也看不见自己。他们身后是一团火。
火光照出墙上囚犯的影子。
在囚犯和火堆之间，还有人和动物在上演着逼真的戏剧，他们的影子也投射在墙上。
囚犯们只能看到影子，却能听到所有的声音。
他们自然而然地认为世界是由墙上的影子组成的，而他们自己就是墙上的影子。
影子们互相交谈、互动，这一切对囚犯来说都是有意义的，他们认为墙上的所有影子都和自己一样。
囚犯们甚至可以通过看到的影子和听到的声音相互了解，他们还可以通过识别其他影子并预测他们会做什么来获得地位。
现在，想象一下，其中一名囚犯被释放了。
他的镣铐掉在地上，他可以转过头来。
他看到其他囚犯被锁在地上，坐成一排，他惊恐万分。
他还看到了囚犯和火堆之间的演员和动物。
他看到洞口，于是冒险走了出去。
他被光线蒙住了双眼，但终于看清了全貌： 他的一生都坐在山洞里，被铁链锁在地上，以为墙就是它。
现在他意识到，墙壁上的行动主要由几个演员引导，囚犯们提供解说。
现在，他看到了现实世界中的机遇。
他觉得自己有责任回去把情况告诉囚犯，并设法释放他们。
首先，他试图向囚犯们解释傀儡师的存在，但傀儡师们不太可能证实他的说法，因为他们从当前的世界方式中获得了很多个人利益。
然后，他试图向囚犯和洞穴解释这个系统是如何安排的。
不幸的是，他发现囚犯们比他预想的更加抵触。
大多数人都不相信他，他们为什么要相信呢？
在适应了外面的光线后，他无法像他们一样看清阴影。
“真是个笨蛋” 取下锁链需要很大的力气，所以大多数人还是坐着。
这些人在识别、命名和对付影子方面非常擅长，也很成功，所以他们可能不想离开。
也有一些人觉得有必要离开。
离开并不容易；
这需要大量的学习，需要重新定位自己的价值观，从把成功等同于识别阴影，转变为把成功等同于在现实世界中四处走动。
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In real life, the prisoners of Plato's Cave are those who are prisoners or slaves to their wages and their culture.
A wage slave is a wage earner who is entirely dependent on their wages.
While the wage slave is free to leave the current job, he isn't free to leave the job market altogether and he can likely not imagine the possibility of doing so.
He is still entirely focused on the wall.
The wall shows other people not as who they are, but as what they own.
There goes a man in his new sports car--what is not seen is that the car is bought on credit and that the man is stressed because he is having trouble making the payments.
在现实生活中，柏拉图洞穴中的囚徒就是那些成为工资和文化囚徒或奴隶的人。
工资奴隶是指完全依赖工资的工薪阶层。
虽然工资奴隶可以自由地离开目前的工作，但他不能自由地完全离开就业市场，他很可能无法想象这样做的可能性。
他的注意力仍然完全集中在墙上。
这面墙展示的不是其他人的身份，而是他们所拥有的东西。
有一个人开着他的新跑车--人们没有看到的是，这辆车是赊账买的，而这个人因为还款有困难而倍感压力。
A wage slave is a wage earner who is entirely dependent on their wages.
While the wage slave is free to leave the current job, he isn't free to leave the job market altogether and he can likely not imagine the possibility of doing so.
He is still entirely focused on the wall.
The wall shows other people not as who they are, but as what they own.
There goes a man in his new sports car--what is not seen is that the car is bought on credit and that the man is stressed because he is having trouble making the payments.
在现实生活中，柏拉图洞穴中的囚徒就是那些成为工资和文化囚徒或奴隶的人。
工资奴隶是指完全依赖工资的工薪阶层。
虽然工资奴隶可以自由地离开目前的工作，但他不能自由地完全离开就业市场，他很可能无法想象这样做的可能性。
他的注意力仍然完全集中在墙上。
这面墙展示的不是其他人的身份，而是他们所拥有的东西。
有一个人开着他的新跑车--人们没有看到的是，这辆车是赊账买的，而这个人因为还款有困难而倍感压力。
Wage slaves have jobs where they can go and spend their most productive hours writing high-powered memos so they can be more productive,while other people spend their time ignoring memos so they can be more productive too.
工资奴隶们的工作就是用他们最有生产力的时间去写高功率（？）的备忘录，这样他们就能更有生产力，而其他人则用他们的时间去忽略备忘录，这样他们也能更有生产力。
This is how it goes.
In fact, one of the great inventions of the 20th century, the personal computer, has made it possible to write even more memos and notices.
事实上，20 世纪最伟大的发明之一--个人电脑--使得人们有可能写更多的备忘录和通知。
This is great because it allows people to do their job while looking busier than ever.
这很好，因为它让人们在完成工作的同时，看起来比以往任何时候都忙碌。
Looking busy is important because in this culture business is a virtue, just as being in debt is a virtue, and the most virtuous are those with the highest credit scores.
看起来很忙很重要，因为在这种文化中，做生意是一种美德，就像欠债是一种美德一样，而最有美德的人就是那些信用分数最高的人。
They're better at being in debt compared to other people.
与其他人相比，他们更善于负债。
This endless working and paying is called "making a living," yet people are so busy "making a living" that they have no time for living.
这种无休止的工作和付出被称为 “谋生”，然而人们却忙于 “谋生”，无暇顾及生活。
A wage slave is a person who is not only economically bound by mortgages, loans, and other obligations, but also mentally bound by an inability to perceive that there are other options available, like the prisoners in Plato's Cave.
工资奴隶不仅在经济上被抵押、贷款和其他义务所束缚，而且在精神上也被束缚，因为他们无法意识到还有其他选择，就像柏拉图洞穴中的囚犯一样。
Their chains are not physical like those of 150 years ago (though they still are in some parts of the world); the chains are mental, which in some sense makes them worse, because it turns the prisoners into their own prison wardens.
Like the slaves in Plato's Cave, the only commonly accepted way for one of them to leave is to win the "prison game," which means accumulating at least a million to retire.
就像柏拉图《洞穴》中的奴隶一样，他们中唯一被普遍接受的离开方式就是赢得 “监狱游戏”，这意味着积累至少一百万来退休。
工资奴隶们的工作就是用他们最有生产力的时间去写高功率（？）的备忘录，这样他们就能更有生产力，而其他人则用他们的时间去忽略备忘录，这样他们也能更有生产力。
This is how it goes.
In fact, one of the great inventions of the 20th century, the personal computer, has made it possible to write even more memos and notices.
事实上，20 世纪最伟大的发明之一--个人电脑--使得人们有可能写更多的备忘录和通知。
This is great because it allows people to do their job while looking busier than ever.
这很好，因为它让人们在完成工作的同时，看起来比以往任何时候都忙碌。
Looking busy is important because in this culture business is a virtue, just as being in debt is a virtue, and the most virtuous are those with the highest credit scores.
看起来很忙很重要，因为在这种文化中，做生意是一种美德，就像欠债是一种美德一样，而最有美德的人就是那些信用分数最高的人。
They're better at being in debt compared to other people.
与其他人相比，他们更善于负债。
This endless working and paying is called "making a living," yet people are so busy "making a living" that they have no time for living.
这种无休止的工作和付出被称为 “谋生”，然而人们却忙于 “谋生”，无暇顾及生活。
A wage slave is a person who is not only economically bound by mortgages, loans, and other obligations, but also mentally bound by an inability to perceive that there are other options available, like the prisoners in Plato's Cave.
工资奴隶不仅在经济上被抵押、贷款和其他义务所束缚，而且在精神上也被束缚，因为他们无法意识到还有其他选择，就像柏拉图洞穴中的囚犯一样。
Their chains are not physical like those of 150 years ago (though they still are in some parts of the world); the chains are mental, which in some sense makes them worse, because it turns the prisoners into their own prison wardens.
Like the slaves in Plato's Cave, the only commonly accepted way for one of them to leave is to win the "prison game," which means accumulating at least a million to retire.
就像柏拉图《洞穴》中的奴隶一样，他们中唯一被普遍接受的离开方式就是赢得 “监狱游戏”，这意味着积累至少一百万来退休。
The disenchanted grumble about "the system" or "the man."
失意者抱怨 “制度 ”或 “人”。
The analogy of "the system" is the people walking around behind the chained slaves, keeping them going.
However, it's mainly the slaves themselves who keep themselves going.
然而，主要是奴隶们自己在支撑着自己。
We don't realize that we maintain this system by lack of imagination and questioning.
我们没有意识到，我们是在缺乏想象力和质疑的情况下维持着这个系统。
Like birds, which never seem to have a flight plan, yet always seem to fly together in a swarming flock, we don't question.
我们就像鸟儿一样，似乎从来没有飞行计划，但却总是成群结队地飞在一起。
We obediently pick whatever options are handed to us, often choosing based on what our neighbors have chosen.
我们顺从地选择任何交给我们的选项，往往是根据邻居的选择来选择。
We make the best of the shadows on the wall, but we do not question the wall.
我们把墙上的阴影利用到极致，但我们并不质疑这堵墙。
The best prison is the one with invisible bars.
最好的监狱就是有看不见的栅栏的监狱。
失意者抱怨 “制度 ”或 “人”。
The analogy of "the system" is the people walking around behind the chained slaves, keeping them going.
However, it's mainly the slaves themselves who keep themselves going.
然而，主要是奴隶们自己在支撑着自己。
We don't realize that we maintain this system by lack of imagination and questioning.
我们没有意识到，我们是在缺乏想象力和质疑的情况下维持着这个系统。
Like birds, which never seem to have a flight plan, yet always seem to fly together in a swarming flock, we don't question.
我们就像鸟儿一样，似乎从来没有飞行计划，但却总是成群结队地飞在一起。
We obediently pick whatever options are handed to us, often choosing based on what our neighbors have chosen.
我们顺从地选择任何交给我们的选项，往往是根据邻居的选择来选择。
We make the best of the shadows on the wall, but we do not question the wall.
我们把墙上的阴影利用到极致，但我们并不质疑这堵墙。
The best prison is the one with invisible bars.
最好的监狱就是有看不见的栅栏的监狱。
Perhaps one reason for this complacency is the large quantity of material goods available to the chain gang.
Material goods are often used as compensation.
Frequently, when someone is depressed, the advice is "Go out and spend some money.Buy yourself something nice. Treat yourself. Try a little retail therapy."
People don't seem to realize that this attempt to feel good is exactly what propagates the problem.
Compared to people just 50 years ago, modern wage slaves live a life of material abundance.
They're consumers.
They have big-screen TVs, movies on demand, microwave ovens, food processors, and 24-piece flatware.
They own multiple pairs of shoes and enough clothes for more than a week without doing laundry.
They have carpeted floors, matching furniture, and vacuum cleaners.
They have expensive toys.
They have car payments,college degrees, five-bedroom/three-bathroom mortgages, laptop computers, cell phone contracts, power tools with 108-piece bit sets, premium cable, air conditioning systems, blenders, food processors, pool tables, DVD players, and granite countertops.
They redecorate, attend sporting events, go on vacations, and occasionally play with their toys.
造成这种自满情绪的原因之一，或许是连锁帮派可以获得大量的物质财富。
物质财富常常被用来作为补偿。
当一个人情绪低落时，人们经常会建议他 "出去花点钱，给自己买点好东西。给自己买点好东西。尝试一下零售疗法"。
人们似乎没有意识到，这种试图让自己感觉良好的做法恰恰助长了问题的蔓延。
与 50 年前的人们相比，现代的工资奴隶过着物质丰富的生活。
他们是消费者。
他们拥有大屏幕电视、点播电影、微波炉、食品加工机和 24 件餐具。
他们拥有多双鞋子，衣服足够穿一个多星期而不用洗。
他们有地毯地板、配套家具和吸尘器。
他们有昂贵的玩具。
他们有车贷、大学文凭、五居室/三浴室抵押贷款、笔记本电脑、手机合同、108 件套的电动工具、高级有线电视、空调系统、搅拌机、食品加工机、台球桌、DVD 播放机和花岗岩台面。
他们重新装修，参加体育赛事，外出度假，偶尔玩玩玩具。
Material goods are often used as compensation.
Frequently, when someone is depressed, the advice is "Go out and spend some money.Buy yourself something nice. Treat yourself. Try a little retail therapy."
People don't seem to realize that this attempt to feel good is exactly what propagates the problem.
Compared to people just 50 years ago, modern wage slaves live a life of material abundance.
They're consumers.
They have big-screen TVs, movies on demand, microwave ovens, food processors, and 24-piece flatware.
They own multiple pairs of shoes and enough clothes for more than a week without doing laundry.
They have carpeted floors, matching furniture, and vacuum cleaners.
They have expensive toys.
They have car payments,college degrees, five-bedroom/three-bathroom mortgages, laptop computers, cell phone contracts, power tools with 108-piece bit sets, premium cable, air conditioning systems, blenders, food processors, pool tables, DVD players, and granite countertops.
They redecorate, attend sporting events, go on vacations, and occasionally play with their toys.
造成这种自满情绪的原因之一，或许是连锁帮派可以获得大量的物质财富。
物质财富常常被用来作为补偿。
当一个人情绪低落时，人们经常会建议他 "出去花点钱，给自己买点好东西。给自己买点好东西。尝试一下零售疗法"。
人们似乎没有意识到，这种试图让自己感觉良好的做法恰恰助长了问题的蔓延。
与 50 年前的人们相比，现代的工资奴隶过着物质丰富的生活。
他们是消费者。
他们拥有大屏幕电视、点播电影、微波炉、食品加工机和 24 件餐具。
他们拥有多双鞋子，衣服足够穿一个多星期而不用洗。
他们有地毯地板、配套家具和吸尘器。
他们有昂贵的玩具。
他们有车贷、大学文凭、五居室/三浴室抵押贷款、笔记本电脑、手机合同、108 件套的电动工具、高级有线电视、空调系统、搅拌机、食品加工机、台球桌、DVD 播放机和花岗岩台面。
他们重新装修，参加体育赛事，外出度假，偶尔玩玩玩具。
Society has made it very easy to spend money.
社会让花钱变得非常容易。
Shopping centers line every street.
Many creative means of spending money have been devised.
人们发明了许多创造性的花钱方式。
Instead of spending 30 seconds opening a can of tomatoes with a traditional can opener, it's now possible to spend 30 minutes working to pay for an electric can opener that can open the can in the same amount of time.
Similarly, many of the ways we used to do things have been redesigned to ensure that instead of doing it ourselves, we can buy some gadget or some service to have it done for us.
同样，我们过去做事的许多方式都经过了重新设计，以确保我们可以购买一些小工具或服务来代替自己动手。
This is convenient,because we're usually too busy working to pay for it to do it ourselves.
这很方便，因为我们通常忙于工作，没有时间花钱自己动手。
This is the gist of the service economy; presumably, if we didn't create enough problems to spend time solving them, the economy would collapse.
这就是服务经济的要旨；可以推测，如果我们不制造足够多的问题来花时间解决问题，经济就会崩溃。
社会让花钱变得非常容易。
Shopping centers line every street.
Many creative means of spending money have been devised.
人们发明了许多创造性的花钱方式。
Instead of spending 30 seconds opening a can of tomatoes with a traditional can opener, it's now possible to spend 30 minutes working to pay for an electric can opener that can open the can in the same amount of time.
Similarly, many of the ways we used to do things have been redesigned to ensure that instead of doing it ourselves, we can buy some gadget or some service to have it done for us.
同样，我们过去做事的许多方式都经过了重新设计，以确保我们可以购买一些小工具或服务来代替自己动手。
This is convenient,because we're usually too busy working to pay for it to do it ourselves.
这很方便，因为我们通常忙于工作，没有时间花钱自己动手。
This is the gist of the service economy; presumably, if we didn't create enough problems to spend time solving them, the economy would collapse.
这就是服务经济的要旨；可以推测，如果我们不制造足够多的问题来花时间解决问题，经济就会崩溃。
To speed up consumption, it's possible to obtain loans and spend money that's yet to be earned.
All it requires is a promise of increased amounts of work in the future, and a commitment of up to 30 years to pay the money back--plus twice the amount in interest.
为了加快消费，有可能获得贷款，花掉尚未赚到的钱。
这只需要承诺将来会增加工作量，并承诺在长达 30 年的时间里还钱--外加两倍的利息。
All it requires is a promise of increased amounts of work in the future, and a commitment of up to 30 years to pay the money back--plus twice the amount in interest.
为了加快消费，有可能获得贷款，花掉尚未赚到的钱。
这只需要承诺将来会增加工作量，并承诺在长达 30 年的时间里还钱--外加两倍的利息。
Lots of personal finance gurus are willing to charge you money (some will do it for free) to advise you as to exactly how to distribute your money into retirement plans, college savings plans, mortgages, credit cards, etc. to maximize your lifetime consumption.
很多个人理财大师都愿意向你收钱（有些是免费的），告诉你如何将钱分配到退休计划、大学储蓄计划、抵押贷款、信用卡等，以最大限度地提高你一生的消费水平。
很多个人理财大师都愿意向你收钱（有些是免费的），告诉你如何将钱分配到退休计划、大学储蓄计划、抵押贷款、信用卡等，以最大限度地提高你一生的消费水平。
Many realize that demonstrating their personal values through the color and build of their cell phone is perhaps inadequate and then move on to bigger and more expensive propositions like large cars, redecorating, or kitchen renovating.
Not that there's anything wrong with such creative outlets, but the scale of these "projects" is often mind-boggling, with tens of thousands being spent on marginal increases in functionality.
许多人意识到，通过手机的颜色和款式来展示个人价值可能还不够，于是便转向更大、更昂贵的项目，如大型汽车、重新装修或厨房翻新。
这并不是说这些创造性活动有什么不好，但这些 “项目 ”的规模往往令人匪夷所思，花费数以万计却只能增加微不足道的功能。
Not that there's anything wrong with such creative outlets, but the scale of these "projects" is often mind-boggling, with tens of thousands being spent on marginal increases in functionality.
许多人意识到，通过手机的颜色和款式来展示个人价值可能还不够，于是便转向更大、更昂贵的项目，如大型汽车、重新装修或厨房翻新。
这并不是说这些创造性活动有什么不好，但这些 “项目 ”的规模往往令人匪夷所思，花费数以万计却只能增加微不足道的功能。
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In the same vein, tally up the sum total of your earned income so far, subtract your savings, and compare the difference to your pile of stuff. Was it really a good deal?
统计一下你迄今为止赚取的收入总和，减去你的积蓄，然后将差额与你的那堆东西进行比较。这真的划算吗？
统计一下你迄今为止赚取的收入总和，减去你的积蓄，然后将差额与你的那堆东西进行比较。这真的划算吗？
To navigate a map, you must first understand your present environment objectively; that is, your reality must match the reality. It would not be an exaggeration to say that anyone who has been brought up in our modern way of life knows very little about their environment, except a few particular details they need to operate some machine in a job, push papers around a bureaucracy, or manage those who do so. A broad view of the world is therefore described in The lock-in. You must then understand how your environment, your present position, and your destination relate to the map.
要想驾驭地图，首先必须客观地了解自己目前所处的环境；也就是说，你的现实情况必须与现实相符。毫不夸张地说，在我们现代生活方式中长大的人，除了在工作中操作某些机器、在官僚机构中推动文件或管理那些人所需的一些特定细节外，对自己所处的环境知之甚少。因此，The lock-in 中描述了一个广阔的世界观。然后，你必须了解你所处的环境、你目前的位置以及你的目的地与地图之间的关系。
要想驾驭地图，首先必须客观地了解自己目前所处的环境；也就是说，你的现实情况必须与现实相符。毫不夸张地说，在我们现代生活方式中长大的人，除了在工作中操作某些机器、在官僚机构中推动文件或管理那些人所需的一些特定细节外，对自己所处的环境知之甚少。因此，The lock-in 中描述了一个广阔的世界观。然后，你必须了解你所处的环境、你目前的位置以及你的目的地与地图之间的关系。
You must understand how your environment affects your choices as well as your motivation for choosing. This is described in Economic degrees of freedom. To get somewhere you must have a deliberate purpose in mind and a vision of the destination that drives your actions. This vision is described in The renaissance ideal. To make deliberate choices, you must know how to creatively deal with your environment.
您必须了解环境如何影响您的选择以及您选择的动机。这在《经济自由度》中有详细描述。要想到达某个地方，你必须有一个深思熟虑的目的，有一个驱动你行动的目的地愿景。文艺复兴时期的理想描述了这一愿景。要做出深思熟虑的选择，就必须知道如何创造性地应对环境。
您必须了解环境如何影响您的选择以及您选择的动机。这在《经济自由度》中有详细描述。要想到达某个地方，你必须有一个深思熟虑的目的，有一个驱动你行动的目的地愿景。文艺复兴时期的理想描述了这一愿景。要做出深思熟虑的选择，就必须知道如何创造性地应对环境。
Many people associate their ideas and thoughts with who they are as a person. This is a significant barrier, since admitting that an alternative is better is perceived as a personal failure. Barriers are therefore raised to protect the ego and avoid a change of perceptions. This is done by adopting one of the counterstrategies to the list above. The most common counter-arguments are that the barriers to the proposed behavior are too high: "I can't give up my car." The second most common counter arguments are that the benefits of the proposed behavior are too low: "I don't know what I'd do if I didn't have to go to work all day every day." The third most common is that the barriers to the competing behavior are low enough:"I'm already doing it this way--I got too much invested already." The fourth most common is that the benefits of the competing behavior are
sufficiently high: "Although I'm miserable, at least I'm comfortable." This varies depending on who you are.
许多人把自己的想法和思想与自己的为人联系在一起。这是一个很大的障碍，因为承认另一种选择更好会被视为个人的失败。因此，人们会设置障碍来保护自我，避免改变观念。要做到这一点，就要采取上述反驳策略中的一种。最常见的反驳理由是，建议行为的障碍太高：“我不能放弃我的车”。其次，最常见的反驳理由是，建议行为的益处太低：“如果我不用每天都去上班，我不知道我会做什么”。第三种最常见的说法是，竞争行为的障碍已经够低了：“我已经在这样做了--我已经投入太多了”。第四种最常见的情况是，竞争行为的收益足够高："虽然我已经在这样做了，但我已经投入了太多。
“虽然我很痛苦，但至少我很舒服"。这种情况因人而异。
sufficiently high: "Although I'm miserable, at least I'm comfortable." This varies depending on who you are.
许多人把自己的想法和思想与自己的为人联系在一起。这是一个很大的障碍，因为承认另一种选择更好会被视为个人的失败。因此，人们会设置障碍来保护自我，避免改变观念。要做到这一点，就要采取上述反驳策略中的一种。最常见的反驳理由是，建议行为的障碍太高：“我不能放弃我的车”。其次，最常见的反驳理由是，建议行为的益处太低：“如果我不用每天都去上班，我不知道我会做什么”。第三种最常见的说法是，竞争行为的障碍已经够低了：“我已经在这样做了--我已经投入太多了”。第四种最常见的情况是，竞争行为的收益足够高："虽然我已经在这样做了，但我已经投入了太多。
“虽然我很痛苦，但至少我很舒服"。这种情况因人而异。
别的书摘与政治不正确玩梗
它也和称做拒斥历史的问题有关，因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得，发生在别人身上的事情，不见得会发生在他们身上。
现实主义者会遭到沉重的打击，概率怀疑论者的下场更糟。戴着概率的眼镜过日子很辛苦，因为会在各式各样的状况中，看到身边到处是不懂随机性的傻瓜，执著于自己认知中的假象。
我们很难想象亚历山大大帝或者恺撒在发生的历史中只打胜仗，却在未曾发生的历史中吃败仗。我们能够听到他们的大名，只是因为他们和其他成千上万的人一样，冒了很大的风险，最后碰巧取得胜利。他们十分聪明、有勇气、高尚，拥有当时所能产生的最高文化水平；但是其他数以千计、活在不显眼的历史脚注中的人物也是如此。他们打了胜仗，这一点我没有异议，我唯一有异议的地方，是胜利和他们处事的谋略品质有关的说法。
最近重读《伊利亚特》叙事诗，我的第一印象是，叙事诗人并没有以成败论英雄。英雄打胜仗或败仗，和他们本身的英勇行为完全无关；他们的命运完全取决于外部的力量，而这通常是命运之神的杰作。英雄之所以是英雄，是因为他们的行为十分英勇，而不是因为战场上的成败。帕特洛克勒斯不是因为他的成就而成为英雄（他很快就被杀了），而是因为他宁死也不愿见到阿基里斯因愤怒而失去行为能力。叙事诗人显然了解未发生的历史。后来的思想家和诗人有更精巧的方法，去处理随机性，例如斯多噶哲学就是如此。
我们很难想象亚历山大大帝或者恺撒在发生的历史中只打胜仗，却在未曾发生的历史中吃败仗。我们能够听到他们的大名，只是因为他们和其他成千上万的人一样，冒了很大的风险，最后碰巧取得胜利。他们十分聪明、有勇气、高尚，拥有当时所能产生的最高文化水平；但是其他数以千计、活在不显眼的历史脚注中的人物也是如此。他们打了胜仗，这一点我没有异议，我唯一有异议的地方，是胜利和他们处事的谋略品质有关的说法。
最近重读《伊利亚特》叙事诗，我的第一印象是，叙事诗人并没有以成败论英雄。英雄打胜仗或败仗，和他们本身的英勇行为完全无关；他们的命运完全取决于外部的力量，而这通常是命运之神的杰作。英雄之所以是英雄，是因为他们的行为十分英勇，而不是因为战场上的成败。帕特洛克勒斯不是因为他的成就而成为英雄（他很快就被杀了），而是因为他宁死也不愿见到阿基里斯因愤怒而失去行为能力。叙事诗人显然了解未发生的历史。后来的思想家和诗人有更精巧的方法，去处理随机性，例如斯多噶哲学就是如此。
前人的智慧不见得正确，我必须费很大的劲，才能不被动听的话牵着鼻子走。我提醒自己，爱因斯坦说过，常识不过是18岁以前学得的一大堆错误看法。此外，谈话中、会议里，尤其是新闻媒体上听起来很有智慧的话，都是值得怀疑的。