gm ☀️

> Market is weak but that understandable.

- US Gov still shutdown
- FED member still not clear about December rate cut yet as economic data will be delayed because GOV shutdown
- US Gov TGA add more to the balance nearly 1T (939 B now) just before the Gov shutdown so it is like take money from the market and then lock without ability to spend yet until Gov reopen
- Many rumors about Private market insolvency and can impact the banking sector. Big news last couple weeks and US bank stock down a lot but it seems to be quite now. However the risk still there if market still lack of liquidity.
- There are some concerns that US might start a war with Venezuela.
- Crypto is weak for long time compare to equities and gold. Big liquidation event on 10th Oct lead to most investors double check before they rotate money to this risky asset class. Ask yourself why you sell your stock or gold to buy crypto now when you see many weak points of macro economics and the sector that just has the biggest liquidation in the history without even see any dead body floating yet.
- Balancer just get hack for over 120M
- Stream finance stable coin depeg and now drag a couple stable coins more to depeg with it. We still don’t know how it can impact more DeFi money market or not. It is not as big as UST depeg during Luna collapse but it brings back the question again that are DeFi really safe and ready for mass adoption?
- DATs (Digital Asset Treasury Company) start to unwind as most companies trading below mNAV.

> What can be the bullish catalyst before the year end?

- US Gov reopen in this month, the 1T sit on TGA start flow back to the market by Gov spending.
- We have more US economic data which should be more weak unemployment rate (enough not to be in the big recession concerns) so we can guarantee the more rate cut in December.
- We have QT end on early December. Even this is not QE, it is still a welcome to help market liquidity.
- No more big war, No more trade war as US-China has some good deal already at least for the next 12months.
- AI narrative still in play so stock market still on the up trend.
- We always see the big correction during Bull market 20% to 30%, so this one might be not different and market need to convince enough people that the bull is over before we can have a foundation and rally back again.

Example many people set the 100k price for their invalidation points so we might go lower then 100k for one week and everybody lose hope then market can rally back. That always happens in the last couple bull market.

> At the end of the day, no one can predict what happens in the future. We can only think about some scenario then prepare our risk management accordingly.

Our long term investment should not impact by short term market price actions.

Our short term or trading fund should flexible follow the market conditions and what we believe happens next.

Sorry for not writing in Khmer, just write a draft of what I’m thinking so English is better to list those down. I might miss some points as this is just sit and write for you guys. Don’t even plan for it.

I will try to check more news/info and write full article or may be video in Khmer later.

Good luck