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Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | October 13, 2026

1. Daily Timeframe (D1)

D1 momentum has reached the overbought zone and is now preparing to reverse downward. If today's daily candle continues to maintain bearish momentum, the market could enter a corrective decline lasting approximately 3–5 trading days.

At this stage, as we expect wave (Y) to be approaching its completion, what we want to see is a strong and decisive bullish move that breaks above previous highs, confirming the beginning of a new uptrend. However, the current price action has yet to demonstrate this strength.
In particular, the recent swing high at 4228 remains unbroken, meaning the market has not yet confirmed a bullish market structure shift.

Therefore, if D1 momentum begins to reverse downward, we will patiently wait for it to return to the oversold zone. At that point, we will resume looking for signals suggesting the potential beginning of a new bullish move.

From a broader perspective, price continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range, with small daily candle bodies. This consolidation structure suggests that another downside liquidity sweep could occur before a new trend begins.

2. H4 Timeframe
H4 momentum is currently reversing upward, suggesting that a corrective bullish retracement may be developing.
From a market structure perspective, H4 has already broken its previous bullish structure after price dropped below 4168.
Notably, the decline from the recent high has left behind a bearish Order Block (OB) associated with a Fair Value Gap (FVG). The confluence of these two elements makes this area an attractive zone to look for potential SELL opportunities.
Our preferred scenario is for price to retrace toward the bearish OB while H4 momentum moves into the overbought zone. If both conditions are met, we will look for additional bearish confirmation before executing SELL positions in line with the current bearish structure.

3. H1 Timeframe
Looking at the Elliott Wave structure on H1, price has already broken below the previous wave 4 low at 4168 and is gradually approaching the invalidation level of the blue five-wave bullish structure (1–2–3–4–5) at 4143.
This suggests that the blue five-wave bullish count is increasingly at risk of being invalidated.

Given the current decline, we need to consider two possible scenarios:

Scenario 1 – The decline is part of a larger corrective structure
If the blue five-wave bullish count is invalidated, the previous upward movement may have been part of a larger corrective structure rather than the beginning of a new bullish impulse.
In this case, price could experience a much deeper decline.

Scenario 2 – The current decline represents wave 2
If the previous bullish move was indeed wave 1 of a new upward structure, the current decline could represent a corrective wave 2.
Under this scenario, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire previous bullish wave will be an important support area to monitor when evaluating the potential completion of wave 2.

4. Trading Plan

For now, price is recovering as H4 momentum reverses upward.
We have identified a more refined trading zone: the Breaker Block (BB) at 4187, which overlaps with the H4 bearish Order Block.
This will be our preferred area to look for SELL opportunities if price retraces higher.

Key conditions to monitor:
Price retraces toward the BB at 4187.
H4 momentum continues rising and approaches the overbought zone.
On lower timeframes, look for bearish market structure confirmation before executing a SELL position.
Meanwhile, on H1, we will continue monitoring the 4143 level to evaluate whether the blue five-wave bullish count becomes invalidated and determine the next potential Elliott Wave scenario.

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📊 WHY DO TRADERS LOSE MONEY EVEN WHEN THEIR ANALYSIS IS CORRECT?

One of the most common mistakes traders make is confusing predicting the right market direction with choosing the right time to enter a trade.
You expect gold to rise, and eventually, it does. But before moving higher, the market drops sharply, hits your Stop Loss, and only then moves in your predicted direction.
So, what went wrong?

1. Being Right About Direction Doesn't Mean Your Timing Is Right
An uptrend on H4 can include multiple bearish corrections on M15 or H1. Entering a BUY position too early can result in a loss, even when your overall market analysis is completely correct.

2. Analysis Gives Us Expectations; Price Structure Gives Us Entry Opportunities
Instead of buying immediately because you expect prices to rise, patiently wait for the correction to complete and look for confirmation signals such as liquidity sweeps, strong displacement, and a Market Structure Shift (MSS).

3. A Correct Trading Idea Can Still Result in a Losing Trade
Entry timing, Stop Loss placement, and risk management determine whether your position can survive market fluctuations before price moves in your expected direction.

💡 KEY TAKEAWAY
Market analysis helps us identify where price is likely to go.
Trading skills help us determine when to enter and when to stay out.
A successful trader doesn't just predict market direction correctly. They also know how to wait for the right opportunity to act.

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VIP is not simply about receiving more signals.

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VIP is not just about following signals — it is about understanding why we enter a trade and how to manage it effectively.

📩 For access details, contact: Ethan_WavePoint_FX
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XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – October 14, 2026

1. Daily Timeframe (D1)

The key point to watch on the daily timeframe is that D1 momentum has turned bearish, suggesting the possibility of a downward move lasting approximately 3–5 trading days.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current price action continues to support the WXY corrective structure. The invalidation level for this wave count remains at 3962, and we can see that price has shown signs of slowing down as it approaches this area.

However, so far, the market has not provided sufficiently clear signals to confirm the beginning of a new bullish move. At a minimum, we need to see price close above the short-term high at 4288 to gain further confirmation that a new bullish trend may be developing.

2. H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is currently turning bullish, suggesting that the market may experience an upward move or sideways consolidation with a bullish bias over the next 3–5 H4 candles.
From a wave structure perspective, an ABC-like pattern appears to be developing, with price currently recovering alongside the bullish momentum on H4.

If price breaks above the 4200 high, this would provide confirmation of a market structure shift. If the upward move also creates significant bullish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) on the H4 or H1 timeframe, it would provide stronger evidence supporting the potential formation of a new bullish trend on H4.

However, one important factor requires attention: the previous bearish move on H4 created a bearish FVG. Therefore, the current rally may simply be a corrective retracement intended to rebalance this FVG before the market resumes its decline.

In this scenario, we will use the next reversal in H4 momentum as a key observation point to evaluate price action. When H4 momentum turns bearish again, we will assess the following possibilities:
If price establishes a new high and creates strong bullish FVGs, this would strengthen the case for an emerging bullish trend.

If price merely retraces into the bearish FVG to rebalance it and then shows signs of weakness, the possibility of a continued decline should remain our primary focus.

3. H1 Timeframe

During yesterday's decline, price completely filled the bullish FVG on the left side of the chart before bouncing from the bullish Order Block (OB) immediately below.
Currently, an ABC-like corrective structure appears to be forming.

If this structure develops into a confirmed ABC correction, the key downside target is located at 4134, corresponding to the Fibonacci 1.0 extension, where Wave C equals Wave A in length (WC = WA).

This price area contains several important confluence factors:
The Fibonacci 1.0 target of the ABC structure at 4134.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bullish move.
A bullish Order Block acting as potential support.

Given these confluence factors, if price declines toward 4134, we have reasonable grounds to anticipate at least a bullish reaction from this area.

However, it is important to note that a decline toward 4134 would invalidate the previously labeled blue bullish 1-2-3-4-5 wave structure. In that case, any subsequent upward move could simply represent a corrective rally within a larger corrective structure rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend.

Key Price Area to Watch for SELL Opportunities
Above the current price, there is a bearish Order Block on the M15 timeframe, positioned above the H4 bearish FVG.
This is an important area to monitor for potential SELL setups, particularly if price retraces into this zone while H4 momentum enters overbought territory.
The confluence of the M15 bearish Order Block, the H4 bearish FVG, and overbought H4 momentum would provide a strong technical basis for watching for a potential bearish move.

That concludes today's market analysis.
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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/a7QCwJje/