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Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | October 11, 2026

D1 Timeframe

Friday's strong bullish candle is a notable signal, suggesting that buying pressure is beginning to increase. However, price has not yet broken above the short-term high at 4228, so we still lack sufficient confirmation of a new bullish trend.

For further confirmation, we want to see price break above 4228, indicating a potential shift in market structure.

Therefore, on the D1 timeframe, we need to remain patient and wait for additional confirmation before concluding that a new bullish trend has begun.

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is currently declining. Ideally, we want momentum to continue moving into the oversold zone. Once that happens, the level at which the decline ends will play an important role in identifying the current Elliott Wave structure.

In terms of price action, price is currently trading within a bearish Order Block (OB), with its lower boundary at 4184. More importantly, this OB is associated with a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), making it a potential resistance area where selling pressure could trigger another decline.
To strengthen the bullish scenario, we need to see price break above this bearish OB and surpass the high of Wave B.

For now, we will continue monitoring the decline in H4 momentum and the level at which the corrective move ends to determine the most appropriate wave count.

H1 Timeframe

At first glance, the H1 chart may suggest that Waves 1–2–3 have already been completed and that price is currently forming Wave 4 or Wave 5.

However, there is an important detail to consider: Wave 3 has not yet reached its Fibonacci 1.618 target at 4229. In fact, price is still around the Fibonacci 1.0 level at 4187.
Therefore, we need to wait for the market to open and observe whether price can continue rising toward the Fibonacci 1.618 level.

If price advances strongly toward this target, the current correction could simply be a smaller Wave 4 within an extended Wave 3 structure.

On the other hand, we must also recognize that the bearish OB, particularly its 50% level, continues to act as strong resistance.


This means the current bullish structure could still represent only Wave C of an ABC correction. If this scenario develops, the next bearish move could be significantly deeper.

Trading Scenarios
At this stage, both bullish and bearish scenarios remain valid, with neither showing a clear advantage.
For this reason, we do not prioritize BUY or SELL positions at the current price level. Instead, we should remain patient and wait for the market to reveal a clearer directional intention.

Scenario 1: Wait for H4 Momentum to Reach Oversold Conditions
We will wait for H4 momentum to continue declining into the oversold zone, then observe where price completes its corrective move.
Once a potential reversal zone is identified, we will move to lower timeframes to look for confirmation signals and potential BUY opportunities.

Scenario 2: Price Continues Rising Toward Fibonacci 1.618 at 4229
If price continues rising toward the Fibonacci 1.618 level, we will have stronger evidence that Wave 3 may have been completed.
Rather than chasing the rally, we will wait for the Wave 4 correction to finish before looking for BUY signals to participate in the potential Wave 5 advance.

Scenario 3: Look for SELL Opportunities if the Bullish Recovery Weakens
After H4 momentum reaches the oversold zone, we will monitor the next upward momentum cycle as it approaches overbought conditions.

If price shows only a weak recovery during this phase, characterized by:
Small-bodied candles indicating weak buying pressure.
Overlapping price action with limited bullish expansion.
Most importantly, failure to establish a new high.
Under these conditions, we will begin looking for bearish confirmation signals and potential SELL opportunities.

Conclusion
XAUUSD is currently at a stage where additional confirmation is needed to determine the next Elliott Wave structure.
On the D1 timeframe, 4228 remains the key resistance level that must be broken to strengthen the

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XAUUSD Market Update

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is currently declining, suggesting that the bearish move could continue for another 2–3 H4 candles.
Price is currently facing resistance at a bearish Order Block (OB). Therefore, we will wait for H4 momentum to move into the oversold zone while observing price action to better identify the current Elliott Wave structure.

H1 Timeframe

On H1, we can observe a structure that closely resembles a completed five-wave pattern. However, as mentioned earlier, Wave 3 has not yet reached its expected price target.
For this reason, I am temporarily labeling this smaller five-wave structure as part of a larger wave formation. It could represent either Wave 3 or Wave C.

Although the five-wave structure appears complete, price has not yet reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target. Therefore, at this stage, I slightly favor the scenario in which the black five-wave structure represents Wave C.

We will monitor two main scenarios:

Scenario 1: Price Holds Above the Wave 4 Low
The Wave 4 low will be a key level to monitor.
If price remains above this level, the black five-wave structure could represent Wave 3 within a larger impulse wave. In that case, we could expect a strong bullish move to establish a new high and complete Wave 5. Under this scenario, Wave 5 could potentially extend.
The Wave 4 correction could develop into a Zigzag, Flat, or Triangle pattern, meaning the correction may unfold primarily as a sideways consolidation.
More importantly, if this corrective phase coincides with H4 momentum reaching the oversold zone, it would provide additional confluence for identifying the potential completion of Wave 4 and the beginning of Wave 5.

Scenario 2: Price Breaks Below the Wave 4 Low at 4168
If price breaks below the Wave 4 low at 4168, particularly if the breakdown occurs during the current single-leg bearish move, it would increase the probability that the previous bullish structure was merely a corrective rally.
In that case, price could continue declining toward lower levels.

Short-Term Trading Plan
Price has recently broken below a short-term low, indicating a bearish market structure shift.
There is an FVG above the current price. The bearish Order Block located above this FVG will be an important area to watch for potential SELL opportunities.
When price retraces into this zone, we can move to lower timeframes to look for bearish confirmation signals before entering a SELL position.
In particular, if the retracement coincides with H1 momentum reaching the overbought zone, it would provide additional confluence for identifying a potential selling opportunity.

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