XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – October 9, 2026

Daily Timeframe (D1)

Looking at the overall D1 structure, price is still consolidating and moving sideways within a tight range. One notable development is that, after a bearish candle swept below the previous low and formed a long lower wick, the market recorded two consecutive bullish sessions. This is a positive signal, suggesting that buying pressure is beginning to emerge.

However, we still need further confirmation to determine whether wave (Y) has truly completed.
Specifically, price needs to break above the short-term high at 4228 to confirm a market structure shift. If this happens, I would like to see multiple bullish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) forming on lower timeframes, such as H4 or H1. This would indicate strong buying participation and strengthen the possibility of a new bullish trend developing.

H4 Timeframe

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we cannot yet determine whether the current upward movement is developing as an ABC corrective structure or a five-wave impulse.
The positive sign is that price is currently advancing sharply, supported by a strong bullish H4 candle with a wide range.

However, the 4184 level corresponds to the Fibonacci 1.0 extension, where wave C equals wave A in length. This is an important area to monitor, as price reaction here may help distinguish between two scenarios:

Scenario 1: If price breaks strongly above 4184 and continues moving higher, it would strengthen the possibility that the current rally is developing into a five-wave impulse.
Scenario 2: If price fails to break above this level and shows a bearish reaction, the probability of a three-wave ABC corrective structure would increase.

Regarding momentum, H4 momentum remains bullish. However, it has already entered overbought territory, suggesting that buying pressure may gradually weaken.
Therefore, we should pay particular attention to how price reacts around the Fibonacci 1.0 level before confirming the next directional scenario.

H1 Timeframe

On the H1 timeframe, we are temporarily maintaining the Elliott Wave labels shown on the chart.
Current price action is increasingly supporting the possibility that wave 3 of a five-wave impulse is developing, as the upward movement is strong and steep.

If this scenario is correct, price should continue advancing toward the Fibonacci 1.618 extension above, which serves as the potential target for wave 3.

However, there is an important resistance area ahead, where the Fibonacci 1.0 extension aligns with a bearish Order Block (OB). We need to carefully observe price reaction around this zone.
There is also a previous high in this area, where liquidity from sellers' stop-loss orders may be resting. We will monitor whether price sweeps above this high.

If price sweeps the high and subsequently shows bearish reversal signals, we will move down to lower timeframes to look for a bearish market structure shift and identify potential Sell entries.
On the other hand, if price closes strongly above this resistance zone, it would strengthen the possibility of further upside toward the Fibonacci 1.618 extension.

We must be particularly cautious when taking countertrend Sell positions, because wave 3 typically produces strong and steep price movements. Attempting to sell against a developing wave 3 can carry significant risk.

For the bullish scenario, corrective pullbacks that coincide with H1 momentum returning to oversold territory will be potential opportunities to look for Buy setups.
At that point, we will move to lower timeframes and wait for a bullish market structure shift to identify suitable Buy entries.

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LONDON SESSION – MARKET UPDATE

Price is currently consolidating in an ABC corrective pattern. Wave A and Wave B may have already completed, while Wave C appears to be developing.

If this scenario is correct, price could continue lower and break the short-term low at 4189 before a potential bullish reversal.

We have two key target zones below to watch for BUY opportunities:
Zone 1: 4184
Zone 2: 4173

When price reaches either of these zones, switch to lower timeframes and look for a bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) to confirm a potential BUY entry.

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PU Prime is currently one of the brokers attracting a lot of attention from traders.

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If you are already familiar with PU Prime and are satisfied with trading on the platform, feel free to message me directly. I’ll guide you through the promotional program and help you get completely free access to the VIP group.

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Suitable for traders who want to follow the main market outlook and receive a limited number of selected trading signals.

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Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | October 11, 2026

D1 Timeframe

Friday's strong bullish candle is a notable signal, suggesting that buying pressure is beginning to increase. However, price has not yet broken above the short-term high at 4228, so we still lack sufficient confirmation of a new bullish trend.

For further confirmation, we want to see price break above 4228, indicating a potential shift in market structure.

Therefore, on the D1 timeframe, we need to remain patient and wait for additional confirmation before concluding that a new bullish trend has begun.

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is currently declining. Ideally, we want momentum to continue moving into the oversold zone. Once that happens, the level at which the decline ends will play an important role in identifying the current Elliott Wave structure.

In terms of price action, price is currently trading within a bearish Order Block (OB), with its lower boundary at 4184. More importantly, this OB is associated with a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), making it a potential resistance area where selling pressure could trigger another decline.
To strengthen the bullish scenario, we need to see price break above this bearish OB and surpass the high of Wave B.

For now, we will continue monitoring the decline in H4 momentum and the level at which the corrective move ends to determine the most appropriate wave count.

H1 Timeframe

At first glance, the H1 chart may suggest that Waves 1–2–3 have already been completed and that price is currently forming Wave 4 or Wave 5.

However, there is an important detail to consider: Wave 3 has not yet reached its Fibonacci 1.618 target at 4229. In fact, price is still around the Fibonacci 1.0 level at 4187.
Therefore, we need to wait for the market to open and observe whether price can continue rising toward the Fibonacci 1.618 level.

If price advances strongly toward this target, the current correction could simply be a smaller Wave 4 within an extended Wave 3 structure.

On the other hand, we must also recognize that the bearish OB, particularly its 50% level, continues to act as strong resistance.


This means the current bullish structure could still represent only Wave C of an ABC correction. If this scenario develops, the next bearish move could be significantly deeper.

Trading Scenarios
At this stage, both bullish and bearish scenarios remain valid, with neither showing a clear advantage.
For this reason, we do not prioritize BUY or SELL positions at the current price level. Instead, we should remain patient and wait for the market to reveal a clearer directional intention.

Scenario 1: Wait for H4 Momentum to Reach Oversold Conditions
We will wait for H4 momentum to continue declining into the oversold zone, then observe where price completes its corrective move.
Once a potential reversal zone is identified, we will move to lower timeframes to look for confirmation signals and potential BUY opportunities.

Scenario 2: Price Continues Rising Toward Fibonacci 1.618 at 4229
If price continues rising toward the Fibonacci 1.618 level, we will have stronger evidence that Wave 3 may have been completed.
Rather than chasing the rally, we will wait for the Wave 4 correction to finish before looking for BUY signals to participate in the potential Wave 5 advance.

Scenario 3: Look for SELL Opportunities if the Bullish Recovery Weakens
After H4 momentum reaches the oversold zone, we will monitor the next upward momentum cycle as it approaches overbought conditions.

If price shows only a weak recovery during this phase, characterized by:
Small-bodied candles indicating weak buying pressure.
Overlapping price action with limited bullish expansion.
Most importantly, failure to establish a new high.
Under these conditions, we will begin looking for bearish confirmation signals and potential SELL opportunities.

Conclusion
XAUUSD is currently at a stage where additional confirmation is needed to determine the next Elliott Wave structure.
On the D1 timeframe, 4228 remains the key resistance level that must be broken to strengthen the