XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – October 9, 2026

Daily Timeframe (D1)

Looking at the overall D1 structure, price is still consolidating and moving sideways within a tight range. One notable development is that, after a bearish candle swept below the previous low and formed a long lower wick, the market recorded two consecutive bullish sessions. This is a positive signal, suggesting that buying pressure is beginning to emerge.

However, we still need further confirmation to determine whether wave (Y) has truly completed.
Specifically, price needs to break above the short-term high at 4228 to confirm a market structure shift. If this happens, I would like to see multiple bullish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) forming on lower timeframes, such as H4 or H1. This would indicate strong buying participation and strengthen the possibility of a new bullish trend developing.

H4 Timeframe

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we cannot yet determine whether the current upward movement is developing as an ABC corrective structure or a five-wave impulse.
The positive sign is that price is currently advancing sharply, supported by a strong bullish H4 candle with a wide range.

However, the 4184 level corresponds to the Fibonacci 1.0 extension, where wave C equals wave A in length. This is an important area to monitor, as price reaction here may help distinguish between two scenarios:

Scenario 1: If price breaks strongly above 4184 and continues moving higher, it would strengthen the possibility that the current rally is developing into a five-wave impulse.
Scenario 2: If price fails to break above this level and shows a bearish reaction, the probability of a three-wave ABC corrective structure would increase.

Regarding momentum, H4 momentum remains bullish. However, it has already entered overbought territory, suggesting that buying pressure may gradually weaken.
Therefore, we should pay particular attention to how price reacts around the Fibonacci 1.0 level before confirming the next directional scenario.

H1 Timeframe

On the H1 timeframe, we are temporarily maintaining the Elliott Wave labels shown on the chart.
Current price action is increasingly supporting the possibility that wave 3 of a five-wave impulse is developing, as the upward movement is strong and steep.

If this scenario is correct, price should continue advancing toward the Fibonacci 1.618 extension above, which serves as the potential target for wave 3.

However, there is an important resistance area ahead, where the Fibonacci 1.0 extension aligns with a bearish Order Block (OB). We need to carefully observe price reaction around this zone.
There is also a previous high in this area, where liquidity from sellers' stop-loss orders may be resting. We will monitor whether price sweeps above this high.

If price sweeps the high and subsequently shows bearish reversal signals, we will move down to lower timeframes to look for a bearish market structure shift and identify potential Sell entries.
On the other hand, if price closes strongly above this resistance zone, it would strengthen the possibility of further upside toward the Fibonacci 1.618 extension.

We must be particularly cautious when taking countertrend Sell positions, because wave 3 typically produces strong and steep price movements. Attempting to sell against a developing wave 3 can carry significant risk.

For the bullish scenario, corrective pullbacks that coincide with H1 momentum returning to oversold territory will be potential opportunities to look for Buy setups.
At that point, we will move to lower timeframes and wait for a bullish market structure shift to identify suitable Buy entries.

China Restarts Fuel Exports

China has decided to restart exports of fuels, after a one-week suspension. This should bring some relief to fuel markets, and especially diesel markets, where prices are running at record highs, not least because of the fuel export suspension news out of China last week. The information comes from

LONDON SESSION – MARKET UPDATE

Price is currently consolidating in an ABC corrective pattern. Wave A and Wave B may have already completed, while Wave C appears to be developing.

If this scenario is correct, price could continue lower and break the short-term low at 4189 before a potential bullish reversal.

We have two key target zones below to watch for BUY opportunities:
Zone 1: 4184
Zone 2: 4173

When price reaches either of these zones, switch to lower timeframes and look for a bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) to confirm a potential BUY entry.

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