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Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | October 8, 2026

Daily Timeframe (D1)

Yesterday, price made a strong sweep below the previous low before sharply rejecting lower levels and forming a long lower wick. This is an early signal of a potential new bullish trend.

Today's price action will provide further confirmation. If the daily candle closes strongly near its high, it will strengthen the possibility of a new bullish trend. However, if price fails to sustain its upward momentum, the market is likely still within the current corrective phase.

Daily momentum has also turned bullish, so we will continue monitoring price action over the coming sessions.

H4 Timeframe

On H4, momentum is approaching the overbought zone. This suggests that the current bullish move is gradually losing strength, with a potential bearish momentum reversal within the next 1–2 H4 candles.
The key level to watch is 4182. If price breaks above this level, it will provide additional confirmation of a potential new bullish trend.

Looking at the structure of wave C, we can see that the internal waves are overlapping. If the decline continues and price forms a new low, we should consider the possibility that wave C is developing into an ending diagonal pattern.

H1 Timeframe

Yesterday's decline swept the previous liquidity. Price is now recovering, and we can identify two potential wave structures: ABC or 1-2-3-4-5.

Both structures initially point toward the Fibonacci 1.0 level at 4160, where wave C = wave A.
If the bullish move ends around 4160, it would strengthen the possibility that the current structure is an ABC correction.

If price continues rising strongly toward the Fibonacci 1.618 level at 4197, this could represent the potential target of wave 3, increasing the probability that we are witnessing a five-wave impulsive structure (1-2-3-4-5).

Besides price targets, the characteristics of the wave movement are equally important. If price continues to rise rapidly, strongly, and sharply, this would be more consistent with the typical behavior of wave 3.
Trading Strategy

Our primary strategy is to move down to the lower timeframes and look for BUY setups aligned with the current bullish direction.

Additionally, the Fibonacci 1.0 level at 4160 aligns with an FVG, creating an important confluence zone.
If price reaches this area under the following conditions:
H4 momentum reverses bearish.
H1 momentum enters the overbought zone.
Price shows a strong bearish reaction.
We will then move down to the lower timeframes to look for a market structure shift (MSS) and potential SELL opportunities.

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temporarily closed at the entry point