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Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – October 7, 2026

D1 Timeframe

D1 momentum is currently still declining, but the momentum lines are beginning to converge and overlap. This is usually a phase where price becomes compressed, so we need to remain patient and wait for momentum to reverse upward.

In terms of price structure, XAUUSD is consolidating within a very tight range around the 50% level of the FVG. This is exactly what we want to see when price is approaching the final stage of an accumulation phase within a WXY structure.

However, we still need to closely monitor the structure invalidation level at 3962.
A downside liquidity sweep before price rebounds is entirely possible. However, this move must not violate the 3962 level if the current wave structure is to remain valid.

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is currently declining, which suggests that price may continue moving lower.
A typical momentum decline usually lasts around 5 H4 candles. Based on the current development, we may still have approximately 2 more H4 candles before momentum reaches the oversold zone.

However, when price is moving sideways, it becomes much more difficult to predict the exact timing of momentum turns. Therefore, at this stage, momentum should only be used as a reference to help identify potential timing for trade setups rather than as a standalone signal.

Regarding the wave structure:

The structure is easier to visualize on the D1 timeframe, where a double Zigzag (WXY) pattern may be forming.
However, as price moves closer to the invalidation level at 3962, we should avoid becoming too attached to any specific wave count, as this can easily create analytical bias.
This is especially important on lower timeframes such as H4 and H1, where the wave structure is currently quite complex. We should remain flexible and focus on actual price behavior rather than forcing the market into a specific wave pattern.

H1 Timeframe

Price reached the bearish OB at 4181, while also sweeping a previous high for liquidity before sharply reversing lower.

This decline broke the most recent low and created a market structure shift. This is a warning that price may continue moving deeper to the downside.

The strong bearish move also created a bearish FVG below the bearish OB around 4170.
Therefore, this FVG together with the bearish OB will be the key area we monitor for a potential retracement, where we can look for SELL setups.

Next price scenario:

With the liquidity above already swept, price may continue moving lower toward the 4113 or 4103 lows.
When price approaches these areas, we will combine this with H4 momentum, especially when momentum reaches the oversold zone, to assess which low price is more likely to sweep through.
From there, we will look for potential BUY setups around the appropriate price zones.

⚠️ FOMC WARNING

The market is entering a sensitive period ahead of the FOMC meeting. During this time, price action can become highly unpredictable, with frequent liquidity sweeps, false breakouts, and sharp reversals.

Try to limit your trading, reduce position size, and only enter when the market structure is truly clear.

Most importantly, avoid FOMO before and during the news release.

Protecting your capital is always more important than forcing a trade.

PU Prime is currently one of the brokers attracting a lot of attention from traders.

Above are the countries where PU Prime currently has offices.

If you are already familiar with PU Prime and are satisfied with trading on the platform, feel free to message me directly. I’ll guide you through the promotional program and help you get completely free access to the VIP group.

FREE CHANNEL

Suitable for traders who want to follow the main market outlook and receive a limited number of selected trading signals.

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VIP is not simply about receiving more signals.

The key difference is that you receive daily trading plans, 6–8 signals per day, detailed explanations behind each setup, and practical guidance on how to manage trades and adjust Stop Loss according to real market conditions.

VIP is not just about following signals — it is about understanding why we enter a trade and how to manage it effectively.

📩 For access details, contact: Ethan_WavePoint_FX
🔗 Telegram: http://t.me/Ethan_WavePoint_FX