Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – October 6, 2026

D1 Timeframe

D1 momentum is currently moving lower, so the bearish move may continue.
Looking at price action, we can see that price has already balanced the FVG and is now moving lower again. However, there is one important signal to note: the current decline is still relatively slow, with small candle bodies, which suggests that selling pressure is not particularly strong.

If this condition continues, once D1 momentum turns back upward, the next bullish move could potentially become the beginning of a new uptrend.

For now, we should continue monitoring price until D1 momentum reverses. The 3962 level remains especially important. As long as price does not break below this level, the current structure is not invalidated. We also have the FOMC meeting this week, so stronger volatility should be expected.

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is still moving lower, but it is also beginning to compress and overlap.
When price starts consolidating, momentum usually does not move strongly. In fact, this may be a positive sign that the current correction is approaching its final stage.

In terms of the wave structure, price is currently in wave 5 of wave (C). Wave 5 can normally develop as a five-wave structure or as an ending triangle.
In the current situation, if an ending triangle develops, it would provide a stronger indication that the bearish trend is approaching completion.
Wave 5 target: 4050.

H1 Timeframe

At the session open, price filled the gap on H1 and has continued to move lower up to the present time.
Below the current price, we have relatively equal lows around 4128. However, it is important to note that price has already tested this area twice, and on the second test, price failed to create a higher high compared with the previous swing.

This increases the probability that price may continue lower toward the next low at 4111.
When price sweeps an important high or low, this is the time to move down to the lower timeframes and look for a market structure shift to identify trading opportunities.
Therefore, the 4111 low is an important area to monitor, especially around 13:00, 17:00, and 20:00 GMT+7.
D
Today is likely to remain a bearish day, so we will use today’s daily open as an important reference level.
At the same time, on the M15 timeframe, focus on bearish FVGs or bearish OBs. If price retraces into these areas around the key time windows mentioned above, we will move down to the lower timeframes and look for a market structure shift to confirm Sell opportunities.

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Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – October 7, 2026

D1 Timeframe

D1 momentum is currently still declining, but the momentum lines are beginning to converge and overlap. This is usually a phase where price becomes compressed, so we need to remain patient and wait for momentum to reverse upward.

In terms of price structure, XAUUSD is consolidating within a very tight range around the 50% level of the FVG. This is exactly what we want to see when price is approaching the final stage of an accumulation phase within a WXY structure.

However, we still need to closely monitor the structure invalidation level at 3962.
A downside liquidity sweep before price rebounds is entirely possible. However, this move must not violate the 3962 level if the current wave structure is to remain valid.

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is currently declining, which suggests that price may continue moving lower.
A typical momentum decline usually lasts around 5 H4 candles. Based on the current development, we may still have approximately 2 more H4 candles before momentum reaches the oversold zone.

However, when price is moving sideways, it becomes much more difficult to predict the exact timing of momentum turns. Therefore, at this stage, momentum should only be used as a reference to help identify potential timing for trade setups rather than as a standalone signal.

Regarding the wave structure:

The structure is easier to visualize on the D1 timeframe, where a double Zigzag (WXY) pattern may be forming.
However, as price moves closer to the invalidation level at 3962, we should avoid becoming too attached to any specific wave count, as this can easily create analytical bias.
This is especially important on lower timeframes such as H4 and H1, where the wave structure is currently quite complex. We should remain flexible and focus on actual price behavior rather than forcing the market into a specific wave pattern.

H1 Timeframe

Price reached the bearish OB at 4181, while also sweeping a previous high for liquidity before sharply reversing lower.

This decline broke the most recent low and created a market structure shift. This is a warning that price may continue moving deeper to the downside.

The strong bearish move also created a bearish FVG below the bearish OB around 4170.
Therefore, this FVG together with the bearish OB will be the key area we monitor for a potential retracement, where we can look for SELL setups.

Next price scenario:

With the liquidity above already swept, price may continue moving lower toward the 4113 or 4103 lows.
When price approaches these areas, we will combine this with H4 momentum, especially when momentum reaches the oversold zone, to assess which low price is more likely to sweep through.
From there, we will look for potential BUY setups around the appropriate price zones.

⚠️ FOMC WARNING

The market is entering a sensitive period ahead of the FOMC meeting. During this time, price action can become highly unpredictable, with frequent liquidity sweeps, false breakouts, and sharp reversals.

Try to limit your trading, reduce position size, and only enter when the market structure is truly clear.

Most importantly, avoid FOMO before and during the news release.

Protecting your capital is always more important than forcing a trade.

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