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Market Update
H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is still moving higher, so the bullish move is likely to continue.
Pay attention to the bearish Order Block around 4182. Combined with H4 momentum moving into the overbought zone, we will start looking for potential Sell setups and downside targets.

H1 Timeframe
Price is currently in the process of rebalancing the FVG.
During the previous decline, after price reached the bearish FVG, it slightly swept below Friday’s low at 4126, then rallied strongly and broke above the short-term high at 4162.
Pay attention to H1 momentum, which is approaching the oversold zone. This suggests that a bullish reversal could occur within the next 1–2 H1 candles.
At the same time, the bullish move on H1 has left an FVG below the current price. This will be an important area to watch for potential short-term Buy setups.

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Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – October 6, 2026

D1 Timeframe

D1 momentum is currently moving lower, so the bearish move may continue.
Looking at price action, we can see that price has already balanced the FVG and is now moving lower again. However, there is one important signal to note: the current decline is still relatively slow, with small candle bodies, which suggests that selling pressure is not particularly strong.

If this condition continues, once D1 momentum turns back upward, the next bullish move could potentially become the beginning of a new uptrend.

For now, we should continue monitoring price until D1 momentum reverses. The 3962 level remains especially important. As long as price does not break below this level, the current structure is not invalidated. We also have the FOMC meeting this week, so stronger volatility should be expected.

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is still moving lower, but it is also beginning to compress and overlap.
When price starts consolidating, momentum usually does not move strongly. In fact, this may be a positive sign that the current correction is approaching its final stage.

In terms of the wave structure, price is currently in wave 5 of wave (C). Wave 5 can normally develop as a five-wave structure or as an ending triangle.
In the current situation, if an ending triangle develops, it would provide a stronger indication that the bearish trend is approaching completion.
Wave 5 target: 4050.

H1 Timeframe

At the session open, price filled the gap on H1 and has continued to move lower up to the present time.
Below the current price, we have relatively equal lows around 4128. However, it is important to note that price has already tested this area twice, and on the second test, price failed to create a higher high compared with the previous swing.

This increases the probability that price may continue lower toward the next low at 4111.
When price sweeps an important high or low, this is the time to move down to the lower timeframes and look for a market structure shift to identify trading opportunities.
Therefore, the 4111 low is an important area to monitor, especially around 13:00, 17:00, and 20:00 GMT+7.
D
Today is likely to remain a bearish day, so we will use today’s daily open as an important reference level.
At the same time, on the M15 timeframe, focus on bearish FVGs or bearish OBs. If price retraces into these areas around the key time windows mentioned above, we will move down to the lower timeframes and look for a market structure shift to confirm Sell opportunities.