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XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – October 5, 2026

D1 Timeframe

Price has already rebalanced the FVG and dropped sharply on Friday, which continues to support our bearish scenario.

D1 momentum is also showing signs of turning down, so we will wait for Monday’s market open to get further confirmation.

Looking at the current price, it is now very close to 3962, which is the invalidation level for the current bullish wave structure. Therefore, if the decline continues, we need to see the downside move slow down, showing signs that the corrective wave is approaching its final stage as selling pressure begins to weaken.
Most importantly, price must not break below 3962 if the current bullish wave structure is to remain valid.

H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is currently moving lower, so there is a strong possibility that the decline will continue when the market opens on Monday.

At the moment, we are temporarily labeling this decline as a 1-2-3-4-5 structure. Friday’s recovery did not move back into the territory of wave 1, so the current wave 4 structure remains valid.
The two downside targets for wave 5 remain 4110 and 4041, with my preference leaning more toward the 4041 area.

Looking at H4, we can see a very strong bearish candle, followed by the formation of an FVG. This is another sign supporting the possibility of further downside after the market opens.
We expect the decline to continue until H4 momentum reaches the oversold zone. At that point, depending on where price is trading relative to our two target areas at 4110 and 4041, we will start looking for Buy opportunities, with the expectation of a bullish move lasting around 3–5 H4 candles.

H1 Timeframe

An ABC corrective structure has already formed, followed by a strong decline on Friday. This supports the continuation of the bearish trend and suggests that the bearish structure of wave 5 may already have started.

Looking at price action, we can see that price swept above the top of wave A, taking liquidity from that area, and then dropped sharply, creating an FVG. This shows that the current bearish pressure remains very strong.

At the moment, we expect price to retrace upward to rebalance the FVG. Above this FVG, there is also a bearish Order Block, which could act as a potential area where price may retrace into before reversing lower again.

The targets for the current decline remain the two H4 wave 5 target areas at 4110 and 4041.
At the same time, these two areas will also be the zones where we consider potential Buy opportunities, especially if price reaches one of these targets while H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone.

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At the session open, price has reached the key area we’ve been focusing on. This is also an important time window when significant highs and lows can form, so stay focused and look for a bearish market structure shift before considering a Sell entry.

Can you spot the setup on the M2 timeframe?

We’ve already reached 2R, guys!🥰👍

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Market Update
H4 Timeframe

H4 momentum is still moving higher, so the bullish move is likely to continue.
Pay attention to the bearish Order Block around 4182. Combined with H4 momentum moving into the overbought zone, we will start looking for potential Sell setups and downside targets.

H1 Timeframe
Price is currently in the process of rebalancing the FVG.
During the previous decline, after price reached the bearish FVG, it slightly swept below Friday’s low at 4126, then rallied strongly and broke above the short-term high at 4162.
Pay attention to H1 momentum, which is approaching the oversold zone. This suggests that a bullish reversal could occur within the next 1–2 H1 candles.
At the same time, the bullish move on H1 has left an FVG below the current price. This will be an important area to watch for potential short-term Buy setups.