WavePoint FX

Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | October 2, 2026

D1 Timeframe

D1 momentum is currently approaching the overbought zone and beginning to show signs of curling over, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening significantly.

Looking at the price structure on D1, the current scenario remains an ABC corrective structure, with 3962 acting as the invalidation level if price breaks below it. However, wave B is somewhat unusual, as it may be developing as a Flat correction.

Below the current price, there is a Bullish Order Block (OB) that could act as a potential support zone if price retraces into this area.

Once D1 momentum turns bearish, we may expect approximately 3–5 days of downside movement. The key will be to observe how price behaves during this period. If strong bearish candles appear and create large FVGs, which then require a significant amount of time to rebalance, the decline could extend further toward 3962, potentially invalidating the current Elliott Wave count.

At this stage, long-term Buy opportunities should only be considered once D1 momentum moves into the oversold zone while price remains above the 3962 invalidation level.

H4 Timeframe

Wave (C) appears to be developing as a five-wave structure: 1–2–3–4–5. At the moment, price may be in wave 4, with two potential targets for wave 5 located at 4110 and 4041.

If this scenario is correct, wave 3 developed with a relatively steep decline but remained comparatively short and did not reach the 1.618 extension of wave 1. Especially near the end of a large accumulation phase, this can be considered normal as selling pressure begins to weaken.

To further support this scenario, wave 5 should ideally develop as a short and weak move, rather than becoming a strong and prolonged decline.

H4 momentum is currently still moving downward, so another bearish move remains possible. However, it is important to note that the current H4 candle still has more than one hour before closing, while momentum is already beginning to show signs of a possible reversal. Therefore, it is better to wait for the H4 candle close for additional confirmation.

H1 Timeframe

During the previous decline on H1, price broke below the previous low and created a bearish FVG. Price is now retracing back into this FVG.

Importantly, this FVG overlaps with the OTE zone (Fibonacci 0.618–0.786). This is a very good area to move down to lower timeframes and look for a bearish market structure shift in order to identify potential Sell opportunities.

However, we should also note that an upward momentum reversal has already occurred on H1.

Above the current price, there is an important intermediate-term high at 4193. This high is located below the major high at 4220 and has two smaller highs on both its left and right sides, which confirms it as an important intermediate-term high.
The fact that the current FVG is located below the 4193 high creates favorable conditions for looking for Sell opportunities.

On the other hand, if price breaks above the 4193 intermediate-term high, there is a higher probability that price will continue upward toward the FVG around 4234.

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