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Elliott Wave & SMC Analysis – XAUUSD – August 10, 2026

D1 Timeframe

D1 momentum has currently moved into the overbought zone. Therefore, during the new trading week, there is a strong possibility that we will see at least one corrective move.

Price has rallied strongly after completing the triangle corrective structure. However, to confirm whether this advance is actually wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish structure, we need to wait for the upcoming correction to complete.

If the correction does not create a lower low below the starting point of the current bullish move, the probability of a developing five-wave bullish structure will increase.

Looking at the current price position, price has already reached the upper FVG and is now only a short distance away from the 50% equilibrium level of the previous decline. Above this equilibrium level, there is another FVG, together with an Equal Highs liquidity area. This could become the next upside target for price.

However, last week's rally created a bullish FVG around 4146. Combined with D1 momentum currently being overbought, there is a possibility that price may retrace during this week to rebalance this FVG.

If the 4146 FVG is rebalanced while D1 momentum simultaneously moves into the oversold zone, this would provide a very favorable condition for looking for Buy opportunities.

H4 Timeframe

During the wave 5 rally, price continued to create FVGs. This suggests that bullish momentum on the H4 timeframe remains strong.

Therefore, there is still a possibility that price could make another push higher to sweep the liquidity above the 4382 high before a more significant decline begins.

H4 momentum is currently moving lower, so at the beginning of the new trading week, price may first decline to rebalance the FVG below before bouncing higher again.

H1 Timeframe

Price may currently be in the final stage of wave (5). After the completion of a five-wave bullish structure, we should expect at least a corrective move.

Price has already entered the D1 FVG. Therefore, what we need now is confirmation of a bearish MSS (Market Structure Shift) from the high.

More specifically, during the coming week, I want to see price first sweep above the PDH (Previous Day High). Ideally, price would sweep above the liquidity resting at the 4382 D1 high, followed by a strong bearish Displacement.

If this scenario occurs, it would provide the confirmation we need to begin looking for Sell opportunities.

The downside targets are:
The FVG below, which still needs to be rebalanced.
The liquidity resting below the wave (4) low.
The FVG around 4175.

ICT NASDAQ Analysis — August 10, 2026

Market Context

Last week was a strong bullish week, and weekly momentum remains bullish. Therefore, there is a good possibility that the market will continue higher this week.

Price is currently trading above the Weekly Open. Because of this, during today’s session, we should be aware of the possibility that price may first trade below the Weekly Open, then reject that area and rally back higher. If this happens, it could form the lower wick of this week’s weekly candle.

We will use the M15 timeframe to analyze today’s trading opportunities.

M15 Analysis

Price is currently trading above the Weekly Open and also above Friday’s high.

In principle, when price trades above Friday’s high, it is sweeping the Buy-Side Liquidity resting above that area.

If price is going to reverse after taking this liquidity, we need to see a fast and aggressive move lower that creates a clear Bearish Displacement. This would be an important indication that price may begin delivering lower.

Since the market opened, price has been trading sideways within a relatively narrow Asian Session Range. This suggests that liquidity is currently being accumulated within this consolidation.

With such a narrow range, liquidity is being built on both sides — above the highs and below the lows of the consolidation.

Key Price Levels
Above the current consolidation is a Bearish Order Block.

Within this Bearish OB, I have marked the 50% level at 29,876.12.

This is an important price level that requires close attention.

Below the current consolidation is an FVG that has not yet been completely filled.

Further below, there are three important liquidity areas:

29,564.57
29,465.57 — Friday’s New York Session Low
29,347.00 — Friday’s PDL

At this stage, we need to wait for the 00:00 AM New York Open and use that opening price as the reference point for today’s trading setup.

Scenario 1 — Price Remains Above the 00:00 AM Open

If, between 00:00 AM and 02:00 AM New York time, price trades above the 00:00 AM New York Open but fails to create a clear Bullish Displacement, we will begin looking for Sell opportunities.

The main areas to watch for a potential Sell setup are:

The Bearish Order Block
The highs above the current range
Most importantly, the 50% level of the Bearish OB at 29,876.12

This is the key area to monitor.

If price reaches this area and then produces a strong move lower with clear Bearish Displacement, price may begin declining and potentially form today’s low during the London Session or in the early New York Session.

The entry condition is that price must first produce a strong bearish move with clear Displacement.

After that, we will look for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) on a lower timeframe to confirm a Sell entry.

Scenario 2 — Price Moves Lower After 00:00 AM

If, between 00:00 AM and 02:00 AM New York time, price begins moving lower, we will not immediately enter a trade.

Instead, we will wait for the London Kill Zone, from 02:00 AM to 05:00 AM New York time.

If price reaches one of the Sell-Side Liquidity areas below during the London Kill Zone, then aggressively reverses higher and creates a clear Bullish Displacement, this could be a signal that price is forming today’s low.

At that point, we will look for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) on a lower timeframe to confirm a Buy entry and target a move higher.

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XAUUSD Update

H4 Timeframe
H4 momentum is currently approaching the oversold zone. With approximately 1 hour remaining before the H4 candle closes, we should be prepared for the possibility of a bullish reversal on H4.

H1 Timeframe
H1 momentum is currently turning bullish. However, we still need to wait for confirmation through a strong bullish Displacement before confirming the bullish direction.

Wave Structure
An ABC corrective structure is currently forming.

The WC = WA projection aligns with the previous wave (3) high at 4304, making this an important area to monitor for price reaction.

Key Scenario to Watch

We need to pay close attention if price fails to close above WA at 4329.

In addition, if H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone but the momentum lines remain compressed/stuck together, combined with a strong bearish Displacement, this would suggest that bearish pressure is still dominant.

In that scenario, there is a strong possibility that XAUUSD could experience a deeper move to the downside.

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Why Traders Lose by Going “All In”

“All in” – putting all your capital into a single trade – might sound tempting, but in reality it’s the fastest way to blow up your account.

🔑 Why is “All in” so dangerous?
1. No room for mistakes – one losing trade = total wipeout.
2. Extreme emotions – going all in triggers fear and greed, leading to poor decisions.
3. Uncertainty of markets – no matter how good your analysis is, there’s always a chance you’re wrong.
4. Losing future opportunities – once the account is gone, you can’t take advantage of better setups later.

⚖️ Simple example
• If you risk 10% of your capital and lose, you still have 90% left to recover.
• If you risk 100% (all in) and lose → 0% left, game over.

🚀 Key Takeaway
👉 Trading is a probability game, not gambling.
👉 Long-term success comes from capital discipline, not from a lucky one-shot win.
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Lesson 1: The 2% Rule – Why It’s So Important
Lesson 2: How to Calculate Risk:Reward for Each Trade