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Elliott Wave & SMC Analysis – XAUUSD – August 7, 2026

Weekly Timeframe (W1)
The weekly timeframe continues to suggest that the bullish trend may extend further, as weekly momentum remains bullish.

If the weekly candle closes while maintaining its current bullish momentum, there is a strong possibility that the market could continue higher into the next trading week.

However, we should pay close attention to the structure of the current weekly candle.
This week, price formed its low on Monday, then rallied and reached a high on Thursday. Today is Friday, the final trading day before the weekly candle closes.

A completed candlestick normally develops both an upper and a lower wick. Therefore, there is a possibility that price may move sideways today or push slightly higher to create a new high, followed by a strong decline that forms an upper wick before the weekly candle closes.

This is an important factor to keep in mind when planning trades for the end of the week.

Daily Timeframe (D1)

As discussed in previous analyses, one of the key signs that a triangle pattern has completed is a strong impulsive breakout.
We have now seen price rally strongly, leaving behind a large FVG below that has not yet been rebalanced. This suggests that price may eventually return to at least the 50% level of this FVG to rebalance the inefficiency.

The 50% Fibonacci level, which aligns with the FVG, could therefore become an important target area for price in the coming period.

At the same time, daily momentum has already reached the oversold area. This is also a warning that the current bullish move may be showing signs of weakening.

H1 Timeframe

The wave (4) structure may still be developing. However, the time factor now needs to be monitored closely.

If wave (4) continues to take significantly more time to complete compared with wave (2), the probability that the current structure is actually wave (4) will gradually decrease. In that case, we may need to consider the possibility that price is developing a larger-degree corrective structure.

The previous decline formed a three-wave ABC corrective structure.

From the current position, price may rally at least toward the previous day’s high (PDH) around 4304 if the corrective structure is still developing.

If price closes above the PDH at 4304, the probability increases that price could continue toward the wave (5) target.

H1 momentum is currently preparing to turn bearish, suggesting that another corrective decline on the H1 timeframe may be about to begin.

We will wait for H1 momentum to move into the oversold area. If price is trading within the FVG around 4212 at that time, this could provide a very good opportunity to look for Buy setups.

One Trade. One Dream. One Explosion.

There was a trader who stared at the chart for 3 hours.
He whispered:
👉 “This… this is the one. The perfect setup.”

He checked everything:
– Trendline ✅
– RSI ✅
– Moon phase ✅
– Gut feeling ✅✅✅

He went all in.
Risked the entire account.
Clicked BUY like a hero.

30 seconds later…
News dropped.
Price dropped harder.
His balance?
Also dropped – to zero.

He stared at the screen… then whispered again:
– “So... that’s what they meant by risk management.”

📌 Moral of the story:
One trade won’t make you rich.
But one bad trade… can make you disappear.
Use stoploss. Use your brain. Not your ego.

High wave pattern

🔅The High wave pattern is a candlestick pattern with large wicks/shadows than the average size of candlestick.

🔅The body of the candlestick is tiny as compared to the shadows.

🔅It is like a spinning top or long-legged Doji candlestick.

🔅This candlestick pattern shows that market makers are deciding their direction.

🔅It is also used as a stop-loss hunting pattern by big traders & institutions.

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📘 Advanced Risk & Psychology Series – Lesson 2

How to Calculate Risk:Reward for Each Trade

In trading, it’s not just about where you enter. What really determines whether you’ll be profitable long term is the Risk:Reward (R:R) ratio.

🔑 What is Risk:Reward?
• Risk: The potential loss if price hits your Stop Loss.
• Reward: The potential profit if price hits your Take Profit.
• R:R = Reward ÷ Risk
Example:
• Entry: 2000
• Stop Loss: 1990 (Risk = $10)
• Take Profit: 2020 (Reward = $20)
👉 R:R = 20/10 = 2:1 (risk $1 to gain $2).

⚖️ Why is R:R so important?
1. You don’t need a high win rate – with 2:1 R:R, you only need to be right ~35% of the time to stay profitable.
2. Filters quality trades – prevents you from entering setups with poor ratios.
3. Psychological stability – you know your potential loss and gain upfront, avoiding emotional decisions.

🚀 Key Takeaway
👉 Never enter a trade without knowing the Risk:Reward ratio.
👉 A disciplined trader always sets SL and TP before clicking the button.

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Lesson 1: The 2% Rule – Why It’s So Important

Small Lot

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⭐️ 90 USDT/2 months – Save 28 USDT
⭐️ 350 USDT/lifetime – Lifetime VIP access

This offer is for traders who want to follow WavePoint FX and receive daily market analysis, trading plans, and early trading signals.

⏳ Limited-time offer — don’t miss your chance to join VIP at the best price!

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Elliott Wave & SMC Analysis – XAUUSD – August 10, 2026

D1 Timeframe

D1 momentum has currently moved into the overbought zone. Therefore, during the new trading week, there is a strong possibility that we will see at least one corrective move.

Price has rallied strongly after completing the triangle corrective structure. However, to confirm whether this advance is actually wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish structure, we need to wait for the upcoming correction to complete.

If the correction does not create a lower low below the starting point of the current bullish move, the probability of a developing five-wave bullish structure will increase.

Looking at the current price position, price has already reached the upper FVG and is now only a short distance away from the 50% equilibrium level of the previous decline. Above this equilibrium level, there is another FVG, together with an Equal Highs liquidity area. This could become the next upside target for price.

However, last week's rally created a bullish FVG around 4146. Combined with D1 momentum currently being overbought, there is a possibility that price may retrace during this week to rebalance this FVG.

If the 4146 FVG is rebalanced while D1 momentum simultaneously moves into the oversold zone, this would provide a very favorable condition for looking for Buy opportunities.

H4 Timeframe

During the wave 5 rally, price continued to create FVGs. This suggests that bullish momentum on the H4 timeframe remains strong.

Therefore, there is still a possibility that price could make another push higher to sweep the liquidity above the 4382 high before a more significant decline begins.

H4 momentum is currently moving lower, so at the beginning of the new trading week, price may first decline to rebalance the FVG below before bouncing higher again.

H1 Timeframe

Price may currently be in the final stage of wave (5). After the completion of a five-wave bullish structure, we should expect at least a corrective move.

Price has already entered the D1 FVG. Therefore, what we need now is confirmation of a bearish MSS (Market Structure Shift) from the high.

More specifically, during the coming week, I want to see price first sweep above the PDH (Previous Day High). Ideally, price would sweep above the liquidity resting at the 4382 D1 high, followed by a strong bearish Displacement.

If this scenario occurs, it would provide the confirmation we need to begin looking for Sell opportunities.

The downside targets are:
The FVG below, which still needs to be rebalanced.
The liquidity resting below the wave (4) low.
The FVG around 4175.