Damnn, SL hit, wait new signal

In just over an hour, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report will be released.

This is a high-impact economic event, so price volatility could be significant. Please trade carefully, everyone.

Elliott Wave Analysis of XAUUSD – August 4, 2026

D1 Time Frame

There has been no significant change in the structure on the D1 time frame. Although momentum is declining, price continues to form short-bodied candles, indicating that the compression phase is still ongoing.

This suggests that a strong trend on the D1 time frame may be approaching. However, it also makes short-term trading more difficult, as price may continue to sweep both upward and downward repeatedly.

H4 Time Frame

Price continues to compress and may be forming a smaller triangle within the larger triangle. Triangles usually appear as the final or penultimate wave, suggesting that the current pattern may be approaching completion.

At this stage, we should not attempt to label the waves while the pattern remains incomplete, because the current position of the triangle does not clearly indicate the next direction. Instead, we should patiently wait for price to break either the upper or lower boundary of the triangle to confirm the next trend.

In the short term, H4 momentum has risen into the overbought zone and is preparing to reverse downward. This indicates the possibility of a bearish move on the H4 time frame. We may look for sell opportunities on the lower time frames in line with this downward momentum cycle.

H1 Time Frame

At the moment, identifying the exact wave pattern is not our primary objective. A symmetrical triangle may be forming. As price moves closer to the end of the pattern, compression increases and the trading range becomes narrower.

What we are waiting for is a strong move in one direction to confirm the next trend.

Price once again touched the FVG below and then rebounded. However, it is important to note that price has formed a lower low, indicating that selling pressure may currently have the advantage.

H4 momentum has risen into the overbought zone and is preparing to reverse, suggesting that the current bullish move is weakening. In addition, there is a bearish OB above at 4074–4079, which is acting as a resistance zone. If price reaches this area, it could provide a very good zone in which to look for sell opportunities.

It is important to note that this OB contains a large volume of transactions. Therefore, a significant amount of liquidity may be resting above the most recent high, including the stop-loss orders of previous sellers. As a result, we cannot rule out the possibility that price may be pushed above this area to sweep all of the liquidity before beginning to decline.

Regarding the downside targets, the FVG at 4042 and the FVG at 4022 have not yet been completely filled. These areas may continue to act as price magnets.

A HIGH INCOME DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN WEALTH

Someone may earn a large amount of money but still have little real wealth if they spend everything, invest without control, or repeatedly suffer major losses.

Wealth does not come only from income. It comes from the difference between how much you earn and how much you spend or lose.

Key message: Do not focus only on increasing your income. Learn how to manage your cash flow.

🔒 How Much Should You Risk per Trade? Here’s the Smart Approach
Proper position sizing is the cornerstone of long-term success in trading. If you’re wondering how much of your account to risk per trade, here’s a breakdown:

✅ Golden Rule: Risk Only 1–2% Per Trade
1% Risk – Ideal for beginners or long-term traders. This level is considered the safest.

2% Risk – Suitable for experienced traders with a proven strategy and consistent win rate.

📌 How to Calculate Position Size
Formula:

Lot size = (Account balance x Risk %) / (Stop Loss in pips x Pip value per lot)

📊 Example – Account $20,000
Account: $20,000

Risk: 1% = $200

Stop Loss: 50 pips

For XAUUSD, 0.1 lot ≈ $1/pip
➡️ Recommended lot size: 0.4 lot

⚠️ Risk Warning
Trading with more than 2% risk per trade significantly increases the chance of blowing your account during losing streaks.

For scalping or high-frequency trading strategies, consider lowering your risk to 0.5% per trade.

🧠 Key Takeaway
For most traders, the sweet spot is 0.5% to 1% risk per trade.

You can increase to 1.5%–2% only when you're consistently profitable, emotionally disciplined, and following a solid strategy.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of XAUUSD – August 5, 2026
Has the Breakout Begun?

Weekly Time Frame – W1

On the weekly time frame, a WXY corrective structure is developing. At present, we still cannot conclude whether wave Y has been completed, because the length of wave Y has not yet reached the length of wave W. However, in terms of duration, the current correction has already lasted significantly longer than the previous corrective waves.

Weekly momentum is currently rising, suggesting that the upward move may continue for another one to two weeks. The target for this corrective rally is the 50% equilibrium level of the previous decline, located around 4118, or until W1 momentum reverses downward.

Daily Time Frame – D1

So far, today’s bullish momentum has been very strong. Price is closely following the upper boundary of the triangle. If the bullish momentum is maintained and the D1 candle closes above the triangle’s upper boundary, this would create a very positive outlook for further upside.

Above the current price, there is still an FVG that has not been completely filled. This area is also aligned with the 50% Fibonacci level, so it may act as a price magnet and attract price upward to fill the remaining imbalance.

Today, the two short-term highs at 4169 and 4202 may be broken.

Four-Hour Time Frame – H4

Looking at the current bullish candle, we still cannot confirm that a genuine breakout has occurred, especially because price is trading within a high-liquidity resistance area. Therefore, the risk of a false breakout remains high.

We need to wait for a candle to close above the 4135 resistance level and above the upper boundary of the triangle to obtain further confirmation.

Below the current price, the two nearest support zones are located around 4116 and 4089. These areas may provide support if price pulls back. If price retraces into either of these zones, we may look for buy opportunities in line with the bullish momentum on the D1 time frame.

The upside targets are the previous long-term highs and the unfilled FVG above.

It is important to note that price is currently compressed within a triangular range. When a triangle pattern is completed, price will often break out strongly and decisively. This type of price action is an important characteristic that can help us confirm that the pattern has ended before looking for suitable trading opportunities.

XAUUSD 8/5/2026: Has the Bullish Trend Started?

Price surged strongly and created multiple FVGs, showing that large money flow may have entered the market.

Now, we wait for price to retrace and rebalance these FVG zones to find better entries. The key areas to watch are the 50% FVG levels and the OBs below.

The nearest target is the LTH high above.