Opposition Leader Yair Lapid:

This government must choose:
- Returning the kidnapped people alive, or Ben Gvir and Smotrich

- Relations with the Americans, or Ben Gvir and Smotrich,

- A deal with Saudi Arabia, or Ben Gvir and Smotrich

- Israel's security, or Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

[A.k]

Analysis of the role of Egypt and Saudi in the possible Rafah invasion (1/2)

EGYPT:
📌Israel was trying to coordinate a Rafah operation with Egypt and the United States.

📌On 1 January 2024: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and UAE joined the BRICS, actively de-dollarizing the world economy.

📌On 23 February 2024, Egypt and UAE made a deal resulting in the biggest direct investment in Egypt’s history. In just 2 months, a total of $35 billion will be injected into Egypt's economy to help with currency shortage, foreign debts, and urban development.

📌Two weeks later, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expanded $3bn deal with an additional $8bn. Although the IMF had wanted an economic reform package from Egypt, it is unclear whether the Egyptian government intends to implement those demands.

📌The Egyptian government, although partly complicit in the Gaza genocide, objects to any influx of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula. However, given that economic desperation is no longer as pressing, Iran showing how vulnerable Israel's defenses are, and increasing signs of self-respect from Egypt, there might be greater willingness than before to stand their ground.

📌If Israel extends the fighting into the Sinai, the peace treaty with Egypt will end, and its response is unpredictable.

[RT]

Part (2/2)

SAUDI ARABIA:
📌joined the BRICS

📌has been forced to review its trillion dollar Vision 2030 megaproject, as its success heavily depends on stability in West Asia as a whole.

📌reached a peace deal with Yemen, preserved the Beijing-brokered 2023 Saudi–Iranian détente, restored relations with Qatar and Syria, and mended fences with Turkiye.

📌did not join any US-led military operations in the Red Sea against Yemen.

The Collective West seems to think the fate of Rafah has been sealed and that Egypt has been taken care of, that it will always opt for a peaceful response as it needs peace to attract tourists and money. They also assume Saudi Arabia will also remain quiet because it has financial, logistical, and geopolitical challenges.

However, the changes in financial and diplomatic ties in the region, including the progresses with the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), might account for a different reaction from what the West expects.

[RT]

French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné arrived in Lebanon today to pursue diplomatic efforts aimed at calming tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border. During his visit, Séjourné was scheduled to hold meetings with UN peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon, as well as Lebanon's parliament speaker, army chief, foreign minister, and caretaker prime minister.


Note: Stéphane's boyfriend is Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister of France. The deployment of an openly gay diplomat to the Middle East for peace negotiations underscores a broader issue: the Western world's apparent disconnection from the political and cultural realities of the region.


[ST]