JPM: AI CHIP RALLY MAY BE HARD TO SUSTAIN
JPMorgan says AI chip stocks may struggle to keep outperforming hyperscalers over the long term.
The bank expects either stronger AI monetization will help cloud providers catch up, or heavy AI spending could eventually curb hyperscaler capex and weaken chip demand. While JPM favors the positive scenario, slowing capex forecasts remain a key risk for semiconductor stocks.
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JPMorgan says AI chip stocks may struggle to keep outperforming hyperscalers over the long term.
The bank expects either stronger AI monetization will help cloud providers catch up, or heavy AI spending could eventually curb hyperscaler capex and weaken chip demand. While JPM favors the positive scenario, slowing capex forecasts remain a key risk for semiconductor stocks.
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UBS CUTS YEAR-END GOLD FORECAST TO $5,000/OZ ON HIGHER RATES
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*INDIA TO BUILD CRUDE OIL RESERVES AGAINST PRICE SPIKES
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SAUDI OIL EXPORTS SURGE AFTER HORMUZ REOPENS
Saudi Arabia is shipping its most crude through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S.-Iran truce reopened the waterway.
Four Bahri supertankers carrying about 8 million barrels have exited the Gulf, signaling higher exports. The increase follows Saudi Aramco's recent spot sales to Asia and reflects improving regional shipping flows as OPEC's top producer ramps up exports.
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Saudi Arabia is shipping its most crude through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S.-Iran truce reopened the waterway.
Four Bahri supertankers carrying about 8 million barrels have exited the Gulf, signaling higher exports. The increase follows Saudi Aramco's recent spot sales to Asia and reflects improving regional shipping flows as OPEC's top producer ramps up exports.
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HORMUZ SHIPPING STABILIZES, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to an average of 40 vessel crossings per day, according to Kpler.
Shipping rebounded after recent attacks disrupted transit, but uncertainty persists over who controls passage. Iran claims authority over the strait, while the U.S. says no country has the right to restrict navigation.
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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to an average of 40 vessel crossings per day, according to Kpler.
Shipping rebounded after recent attacks disrupted transit, but uncertainty persists over who controls passage. Iran claims authority over the strait, while the U.S. says no country has the right to restrict navigation.
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INDIA OIL MINISTER: INDIA COMPANIES ARE NOT SELLING FUELS TO RUSSIA
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ROBINHOOD CEO: AI AGENTS TO RIVAL HUMAN TRADERS
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said AI agents will soon match the capabilities of human traders as the company expands its AI-powered investing tools.
Tenev said the goal is to give retail investors institutional-grade trading capabilities. Robinhood recently launched AI trading tools and continues expanding its crypto business across Europe.
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Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said AI agents will soon match the capabilities of human traders as the company expands its AI-powered investing tools.
Tenev said the goal is to give retail investors institutional-grade trading capabilities. Robinhood recently launched AI trading tools and continues expanding its crypto business across Europe.
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JUNE JOBS GROWTH SEEN SLOWING
Economists expect the U.S. to add a median 115,000 jobs in June (forecast range: 25,000–130,000), down from 172,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y.
NFP forecasts:
• Kalshi: 119K
• Citi: 25K
• TD Securities: 80K
• Morgan Stanley: 90K
• Wells Fargo: 95K
• Barclays: 100K
• Daiwa: 105K
• Capital Economics: 110K
• BofA: 110K
• HSBC: 110K
• JPMorgan: 125K
• Goldman Sachs: 130K
• Standard Chartered: 130K
https://t.co/AU7GK0EoSF
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Economists expect the U.S. to add a median 115,000 jobs in June (forecast range: 25,000–130,000), down from 172,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y.
NFP forecasts:
• Kalshi: 119K
• Citi: 25K
• TD Securities: 80K
• Morgan Stanley: 90K
• Wells Fargo: 95K
• Barclays: 100K
• Daiwa: 105K
• Capital Economics: 110K
• BofA: 110K
• HSBC: 110K
• JPMorgan: 125K
• Goldman Sachs: 130K
• Standard Chartered: 130K
https://t.co/AU7GK0EoSF
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TRUMP: U.S. PAYS TOO MUCH FOR NATO
President Trump said the U.S. spends far more on NATO than any other member while receiving little in return.
He cited $999 billion in U.S. defense spending versus $90.5 billion for the U.K., $66.5 billion for France, $48.8 billion for Italy, and $44.3 billion for Poland, calling the imbalance "ridiculous."
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President Trump said the U.S. spends far more on NATO than any other member while receiving little in return.
He cited $999 billion in U.S. defense spending versus $90.5 billion for the U.K., $66.5 billion for France, $48.8 billion for Italy, and $44.3 billion for Poland, calling the imbalance "ridiculous."
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FED'S DALY: AI INVESTMENT SHOCK HAS PEOPLE WONDERING IF IT WILL BE INFLATIONARY
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DALY: WE ARE IN EARLY STAGES OF A POTENTIAL EXPONENTIAL RISE IN PRODUCTIVITY GAINS FROM AI
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$TSLA - TESLA CHINA SALES RISE FOR EIGHTH MONTH
Tesla's China-made EV sales rose 24.4% year-over-year to 89,091 vehicles in June, marking an eighth straight month of growth.
The increase was driven by a continued recovery in European demand. Tesla's Shanghai factory supplies both the Chinese market and exports vehicles to Europe.
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Tesla's China-made EV sales rose 24.4% year-over-year to 89,091 vehicles in June, marking an eighth straight month of growth.
The increase was driven by a continued recovery in European demand. Tesla's Shanghai factory supplies both the Chinese market and exports vehicles to Europe.
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TRUMP'S THURSDAY CALENDAR (JULY 2)
🔸 8:00 AM — Executive Time (White House, Closed Press)
🔸 10:30 AM — Policy Meeting (Oval Office, Closed Press)
🔸 11:00 AM — Intelligence Briefing (White House, Closed Press)
🔸 1:30 PM — Policy Meeting (Oval Office, Closed Press)
🔸 2:30 PM — Policy Meeting (White House, Closed Press)
🔸 4:00 PM — Pre-Taped Interview (Oval Office, Closed Press)
🔸 6:00 PM — Policy Meeting (Oval Office, Closed Press)
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🔸 8:00 AM — Executive Time (White House, Closed Press)
🔸 10:30 AM — Policy Meeting (Oval Office, Closed Press)
🔸 11:00 AM — Intelligence Briefing (White House, Closed Press)
🔸 1:30 PM — Policy Meeting (Oval Office, Closed Press)
🔸 2:30 PM — Policy Meeting (White House, Closed Press)
🔸 4:00 PM — Pre-Taped Interview (Oval Office, Closed Press)
🔸 6:00 PM — Policy Meeting (Oval Office, Closed Press)
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SYRIA'S AL EKHBARIYA SAYS EXPLOSION HEARD IN DAMASCUS
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U.S. JUNE NONFARM PAYROLLS +57,000 (CONSENSUS +110,000)
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U.S. JOBS GROWTH MISSES, UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June, well below the 110,000 forecast, while private payrolls increased 49,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% from an expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings matched forecasts, rising 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y, while labor force participation slipped to 61.5%.
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U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June, well below the 110,000 forecast, while private payrolls increased 49,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% from an expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings matched forecasts, rising 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y, while labor force participation slipped to 61.5%.
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US JOBLESS CLAIMS -1K TO 215K IN JUN-27 WK; SURVEY 220K
US JUN-20 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS +2K TO 1,814,000
US JUN-20 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 216K
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US JUN-20 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS +2K TO 1,814,000
US JUN-20 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 216K
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US LABOR JUN NONFARM PAYROLLS +57K; CONSENSUS +115K
US JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%; CONSENSUS 4.3%
US JUN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.35%, OR +$0.13 TO $37.64; OVER YEAR +3.52%
US JUN PRIVATE SECTOR PAYROLLS +49K AND GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS +8K
US JUN AVERAGE WORKWEEK UNCHANGED AT 34.3 HOURS
US JUN LABOR-FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE 61.5%
US MAY PAYROLLS REVISED TO +129K; APR REVISED TO +148K
US MAY UNEMPLOYMENT UNREVISED AT 4.3%
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US JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%; CONSENSUS 4.3%
US JUN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.35%, OR +$0.13 TO $37.64; OVER YEAR +3.52%
US JUN PRIVATE SECTOR PAYROLLS +49K AND GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS +8K
US JUN AVERAGE WORKWEEK UNCHANGED AT 34.3 HOURS
US JUN LABOR-FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE 61.5%
US MAY PAYROLLS REVISED TO +129K; APR REVISED TO +148K
US MAY UNEMPLOYMENT UNREVISED AT 4.3%
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TRADERS OF SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE FUTURES TRIM RATE HIKE BETS AFTER WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED JOBS DATA
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TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE HIKE BY DECEMBER PREVIOUSLY OCTOBER
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