📆 Weekly Close (Sept 21–27, 2025)

🇺🇸 U.S. Macro

GDP revised higher: 3.8% → stronger growth.

Core PCE steady at 0.2% m/m → inflation contained.

Labor market solid: jobless claims at 218K.

Consumption holding up: income +0.4%, spending +0.6%.

👉 Balance: The U.S. economy = soft landing narrative intact. Growth firm, inflation cooling.

🇪🇺 Europe

PMIs still in contraction (<50).

Business confidence falling (Germany IFO 87.7).
👉 Clear risk of technical recession.

🌍 Markets

USD: bullish on GDP strength.

Bonds: supported by disinflation signals.

Gold: capped by strong dollar.

Equities: U.S. supported, Europe weak.

Commodities: pressured by European slowdown.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

📆 Week Ahead (Sept 28 – Oct 4, 2025)

🇺🇸 U.S. Focus

Jobs: ADP (+53K) + Friday NFP (+51K exp.) → labor market cooling but watched closely.

Unemployment: 4.3% expected (vs 4.4%).

Wages: +0.3% expected → key inflation signal.

Inflation: Core CPI Flash at 2.3% y/y; ISM Prices (64.5) = cost pressures.
👉 Big test = Friday NFP + wages → volatility event.

🇪🇺 Europe

Final PMIs expected in contraction (<50).

Flash CPI: 2.2%, Core 2.3% → any downside = dovish fuel.

Lagarde speaks Tue & Fri → market sensitive.
👉 Weak growth + stable inflation = EUR pressure.

🌍 Other Drivers

OPEC meeting (Wed): crude volatility risk.

WTI inventories (Wed–Thu): supply-driven moves.

China: no major data, but stimulus chatter in play.

This week is about jobs + inflation.
Friday’s NFP is the global volatility trigger.

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR UPDATE

📊 Market Fundamentals – October 1st Outlook

🇪🇺 Europe
PMIs confirm weakness across Spain, Italy, and France — still below 50, signaling contraction.
Germany surprises to the upside at 49.5, but the Eurozone remains fragile overall.
Inflation stabilizes around 2.2–2.3%, giving the ECB room to stay dovish.

🇺🇸 United States
ADP jobs report shocks with -32K vs +52K expected → strong signal of labor market cooling.
ISM Manufacturing improves slightly to 49.1 but stays in contraction territory.
Prices Paid drop → inflation pressures ease.

🔎 Interpretation
The U.S. data paints a clear picture: jobs cooling + weak manufacturing + softer inflation = pressure on the Fed to cut sooner.