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February 14, 2024 at 04:02AM

January CPI Surges, Exceeding Economists' Expectations - FX Empire
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February 14, 2024 at 05:03AM

Silver Technical Analysis for February 14, 2024 by Chris Lewis for FX Empire - YouTube
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February 14, 2024 at 07:03AM

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 14, 2024
MediaEUR/USD

Yesterday there was a strong shift away from risk; the S&P 500 -1.37%, copper -0.52%, but bond yields increased, and oil prices rose. On the one hand, this divergence fully corresponds to investors' expectations of a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts due to yesterday's US inflation data – the core index held at 3.9% YoY against expectations of a decrease to 3.7% YoY, the US CPI decreased from 3.4% YoY to 3.1% YoY against expectations of 2.9% YoY, and investors' expectations for a rate cut shifted from May to June. On the other hand, earlier in the day, before the data was released, European stock markets and futures on the US stock market were falling, only accelerating with the release of the news. Perhaps the market will not return to the record high that was set by the S&P 500 on Monday, for a long time at that, and this is the beginning of a global crisis. Traditionally, we're waiting for a major company to announce bankruptcy to officially start the crisis. Last year, there were several major bankruptcies, but amid unbridled optimism, they went unnoticed. Now, markets are more attentive.



On the daily chart, the euro has crossed the midline of the descending price channel. The price has breached the support at 1.0724, so now it can aim for 1.0632. Surpassing this target would reveal a significantly lower one at 1.0450, the October 2023 low.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the target level of 1.0724. The Marlin oscillator has firmly settled in the downtrend territory. It is noteworthy that the decline occurred after a double false breakout above the MACD line (marked by ovals). This is a sign of the medium-term downward movement.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com


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February 14, 2024 at 05:07PM

Outlook for EUR/USD on February 14. US inflation gave the dollar a gift
<a href="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20240214/appsimage_analytics65cc559905437.jpg">Media</a>Analysis of EUR/USD 5M





EUR/USD resumed its downward movement on Tuesday. Essentially, the main movement of the day occurred within 5-10 minutes when the inflation report was published in the United States. The Consumer Price Index for January disappointed dollar sellers, as inflation did not slow down as much as expected. The annual rate of inflation dropped less than expected to 3.1% in January, which, in principle, corresponds to forecasts (2.9-3.1%), and economists had forecast core CPI rate would slow to 3.7% year over year, but remained at 3.9%. Such information provoked the dollar's rise, which, from our perspective, is entirely justified.

In general, the euro continues to decline. For several consecutive months, we have been listing factors that suggest why the euro should fall. At the moment, there are no questions or doubts about the market. The European economy is weaker, the euro is overbought, expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut are getting weaker, while expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are getting stronger. Thus, the dollar has an undeniable advantage.

On the hourly chart, it is clear that the pair failed to reach the Senkou Span B line and settled below the critical line. Therefore, the downtrend remains intact from a technical perspective, albeit a rather slow one. However, the euro has never been a volatile instrument. Therefore, downward movements are normal for EUR/USD.

Only two trading signals were generated yesterday. During the European session, the price bounced off the critical line and managed to rise by about 25 pips before the inflation report was released. Before the report, it was advisable to either close these positions with a profit or set the Stop Loss at breakeven. The sell signal formed around the Kijun-sen line and the level of 1.0757 was challenging to execute as the pair dropped by 67 pips in 5 minutes. Nevertheless, it was possible to enter the market with the help of a pending sell order. This trade also turned out to be profitable – as traders could earn around 25-30 pips.

COT report:



The latest COT report is dated February 6. The net position of non-commercial traders has been bullish for quite some time. The number of long positions is much higher than the number of short positions. However, in recent weeks, the number of longs has been decreasing, while the number of shorts is rising, which aligns with the euro's current movement and our expectations.

We believe that the euro should fall and the uptrend must end. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,000, while the number of short positions increased by 28,800. Accordingly, the net position fell by 16,600. The number of buy contracts is still higher than the number of sell contracts among non-commercial traders by 62,000. The gap is quite large, but we're starting to see a noticeable change. Even without COT reports, it is clear that the euro should fall further.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H





On the 1-hour chart, the downtrend persists. In our opinion, nearly all the factors currently indicate that the dollar will strengthen. Yesterday, the inflation report supported the US currency, but it's worth noting that this is not the first report or event that has been supportive of the dollar. In general, the fundamental background is currently in favor of the US currency. Therefore, we expect the euro to fall. The nearest target is the 1.0658-1.0669 area.

On February 14, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0530, 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0823, 1.0889, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0813) and Kijun-sen (1.0754). The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, so this should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven…

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 14th. US inflation disappoints the market again
<a href="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20240214/appsimage_analytics65cc4a2d8c86f.jpg">Media</a>The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Tuesday. Even the US inflation report did not significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. While we did see a surge of emotions in the market, it cannot be said that it had a radical effect on market sentiment and the technical picture. At this time, bears are in control. From our perspective, this is entirely logical, as the euro has been rising for too long, and the dollar has been falling for too long. Consequently, the euro remains overbought, implying a further decline.

The current technical disposition is more clearly visible in the 24-hour timeframe. It is evident that the pair began forming a downtrend last year, and the upward movement in the last 4 months (which has already concluded) is nothing more than a correction. Thus, from a technical standpoint, we expect only a decline. From a fundamental standpoint, there is no expectation other than a decline in the euro as well. The market had long believed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would begin lowering rates in March, while the European Central Bank (ECB) would do so at some point. However, representatives of the Fed are now openly stating that March is too early, and there is no rush.

In ECB circles, the situation is the opposite. Many policymakers believe that the rate will start decreasing in 2024, while others insist that this process should begin in the summer. Even Christine Lagarde has stated twice that her department expects updated information by May, after which decisions on key rates can be made. Therefore, the fundamentals fully support further depreciation of the European currency since market expectations for the Fed rate were initially too low and for the ECB rate - too high.

As for the macroeconomic background, it has long been favoring only the dollar. Despite a series of weak reports (particularly on the labor market) in November and December of last year, the situation has since improved, and the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report undoubtedly pleased dollar buyers.

Only inflation raises some questions.

Yesterday's consumer price index report once again showed that inflation in America has been decreasing very slowly over the past 7-8 months or not decreasing at all. According to the latest published report, prices rose by 3.1% on an annual basis, while the market expected a slowdown to 2.9%. Core inflation remained at 3.9%, although the market expected it to decrease to 3.7%. Thus, we once again conclude that the Fed will not ease monetary policy in March. Moreover, the longer inflation refuses to slow down in line with the regulator's expectations, the longer the regulator will resist the easing cycle. This could provide significant support to the dollar against the euro, as the ECB may start lowering its rate by summer, which is 1% lower than the current rate in the United States.

The dollar rightly showed growth against the euro on Tuesday. The downtrend persists, and we fully support further pair declines. The issue for buyers lies not only in high American inflation but in numerous fundamental and macroeconomic reasons, which we have been discussing for several months.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair for the last 5 trading days as of February 14th is 53 points and is characterized as "low." Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0661 and 1.0767 on Wednesday. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will indicate a new phase of corrective movement.

Nearby support levels:

S1 – 1.0681

S2 – 1.0620

Nearby resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0742

R2 – 1.0803

R3 – 1.0864

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be below the moving average line. We continue to look towards short positions with targets at 1.0661 and 1.0620. The decline of the European currency is stable but slow.…

Inflationary explosion in the US: how do the dollar and bonds react?
<a href="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20240214/appsimage_analytics65cc5943a31f7.jpg">Media</a>The consequences of high inflation are felt across the financial market. Specifically, the main Wall Street indices reacted to this news with a decrease after the publication of data indicating a higher than expected rise in consumer prices. This event pressured the expectations regarding the imminent lowering of interest rates, which in turn led to an increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds.


Among other things, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its most significant drop in almost 11 months after the US Department of Labor's report showed an unexpected increase in consumer prices in January, especially due to the rise in housing costs.


Against this backdrop, market indices, which were on the rise in anticipation that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) would begin to lower rates as early as May, showed negative dynamics. The S&P 500 index, for example, closed above the 5000 point mark for the first time, and the Dow Jones index traded near record-high values. However, the publication of inflation data revised expectations regarding the FRS's policy, increasing the likelihood that rate cuts may not occur until June.


Mega-cap companies sensitive to rates, such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms, showed a decrease in stock prices amid the rise in yields of US Treasury bonds to a two-month high. A similar situation was observed among chip manufacturers, including Micron Technology, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, which led to a 2% drop in the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index.


The real estate, consumer discretionary, and utilities sectors faced the most significant losses among the 11 major industry indices of the S&P 500, especially real estate, which reached its lowest values in more than two months.

Small-cap companies also felt the pressure, with the Russell 2000 index showing the most significant daily drop since June 2022.


"Various statements by Federal Reserve System officials in recent weeks have indicated that the market-anticipated rate cuts in the first half of the year might have been premature. The latest consumer price index data certainly confirms this trend," commented Bob Elliott from Unlimited Funds.


The consumer inflation data followed a modest revision of inflation figures for the last quarter of 2023, giving investors temporary relief regarding inflation expectations.

The Cboe Volatility Index reached its highest level since November, highlighting the growing market concern. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices lost 1.37% and 1.79% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.36%, marking its most significant decline since March 2023.


Among other developments, JetBlue Airways shares surged by 21.6% after Carl Icahn disclosed his stake in the company, calling the shares "undervalued." Arista Networks' shares declined by 5.5% following a gross profit forecast below expectations, and Marriott International lost value after forecasting annual earnings below analyst expectations.


Cadence Design Systems and toy manufacturer Hasbro also faced a drop in share value after publishing gloomy forecasts. Meanwhile, Tripadvisor shares jumped by 13.8% following the announcement of the creation of a special committee to review deal proposals.


The total trading volume on US exchanges reached 12.9 billion shares, comparable to the average of the last 20 sessions at 11.71 billion shares.


The US stock market continues to demonstrate record levels, supported by leading technology companies and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The global stock index MSCI and the Stoxx 600 European index also showed a decline amid current events.

The dollar index reached a three-month high, and bitcoin set a new record since December 2021, despite subsequent declines.


Data on US retail sales and the producer price report are expected shortly, which…

GBP/USD trading plan for European session on February 14, 2024. COT report and overview of yesterday's trades. The pound
<a href="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20240214/appsimage_analytics65cc617db41d8.jpg">Media</a>Yesterday, GBP/USD generated several signals to enter the market. Now let's look at the 5-minute chart and try to figure out what actually happened. In my morning forecast, I indicated the level of 1.2637 and planned to make decisions on entering the market from there. A breakout and upward retest of 1.2637 generated a buy signal, which sent the pair up by more than 35 pips. In the afternoon, a false breakout at 1.2670 produced a sell signal. As a result, the pair was down by more than 80 pips.

For long positions on GBP/USD:

Yesterday's UK labor market data reminds us that the Bank of England's rates need to be kept at current highs for as long as possible. This morning, the UK Consumer Price Index will be published. If inflation increases, the pound may quickly regain its position, which it lost yesterday after the US inflation data. But if inflation falls, GBP/USD will likely fall further.



I plan to look for buying opportunities on dips, ensuring that buyers are present around 1.2573. A false breakout of this level, similar to what I discussed above, would serve as a buy signal, aiming for a recovery towards 1.2651, where the moving averages are currently aligned in favor of sellers. A breakout and consolidation above this range will strengthen the demand for the pound and open the way to 1.2652, which would be a strong correction for the pair. The ultimate target will be the 1.2690 high where I intend to take profit. In a scenario where GBP/USD falls and there are no buyers at 1.2573, we might see another pound sell-off, which will revive the bear market and cross out all the bulls' plans for further correction. In such a scenario, only a false breakout near the next support at 1.2543 would provide an entry signal. I would immediately go long on a bounce from the 1.2519 low, bearing in mind an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.

For short positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers are in control of the market and their goal is to keep the pair below the nearest resistance at 1.2615. In case GBP/USD attempts to recover in the first half of the day, I plan to sell GBP/USD only after forming a false breakout, as this would confirm the presence of major sellers in the market, creating a sell signal that will give bears a chance to move the price down to the area of 1.2573 - yesterday's low. Only a breakout and a retest from below will deal a more serious blow to the buyers' positions, leading to the removal of stop orders and opening the way to 1.2543, where I anticipate big buyers to show up. The next target would be low of 1.2519, where I plan to take profits. If GBP/USD grows and there are no bears at 1.2615, and if we receive strong UK inflation data, the bulls will try to regain the market's favor in hopes of a correction. In such a case, I will postpone sales until the price performs a false breakout at 1.2652. If there is no downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD on a bounce right from 1.2690, considering a downward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.



COT report:

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 6, we find an increase in both long and short positions. Although traders already have a clear view of the Bank of England's future policy, which intends to actively control inflation, the pound is not in a rush to show growth. Recent statements by BoE officials indicate a soft wait-and-see stance that can change at any moment – if, of course, the data allows. In the near future, we can look forward to UK reports on the labor market, wage growth, and inflation, which can significantly change the balance of power in the market. But don't forget to consider the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see position, so uncertainties are much greater now than before. The latest COT report said that long non-commercial positions rose by 6,437…

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February 15, 2024 at 10:42AM

Forecast for GBP/USD on February 15, 2024
MediaGBP/USD

Yesterday, the UK inflation data came out weaker than expected. The Core CPI edged higher by 5.1% YoY in January, missing estimates of 5.2%. On a monthly basis, core CPI slid to -0.9%, against expectations of -0.8%. Month-on-month, the headline CPI fell to -0.6% (forecast -0.3%), and on an annual basis, it also remained at 4.0% against forecasts of an increase to 4.1% YoY. Retail prices and housing prices declined. As a result, the pound fell by 27 pips.

Today, the UK will release several reports. GDP for the 4th quarter is expected to grow by only 0.1% YoY, compared to 0.3% YoY in the previous period, due to a contraction of GDP in the 4th quarter by 0.1%. The consensus estimate for December is expected to be -0.2% MoM. Industrial production for December is expected to contract by 0.1%, and the trade balance is expected to worsen from -14.2 billion pounds to -15.0 billion pounds.

In the US, industrial production for January is expected to increase by 0.2%. Market players expect mixed indicators for retail sales. Based on these preliminary data, we expect the pound to fall further.



Yesterday, the pound fell slightly short of the target support at 1.2524 and showed a corrective move with its weak growth. From a technical perspective, this helps us with confirming the main bearish scenario since the risk of forming convergence with the oscillator has been eliminated. At the same time, we see the price moving below the level of 1.2610 and below the MACD line (blue). Overcoming the support level of 1.2524 paves the way for the price to reach the target at 1.2373.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving below the balance and MACD indicator lines, with the Marlin oscillator in a downtrend territory. We are waiting for the price to consolidate below 1.2524 to reveal the main scenario. If the pound strengthens above the level of 1.2610, this will delay the main plan.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com


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