🏦 US Debt Tilts Toward T-Bills

After 30-year Treasury yields rose above 5% in May 2026, more than 75% of the increase in marketable Treasury debt since July came from T-bills. That compares with 18% in 2025.

The US now has a record $7.25 trillion in T-bills outstanding. They mature within a year and must be constantly refinanced. Yields are already around 3.8%-4%, while another 25 bps Fed hike is expected on Wednesday.

BofA expects 3 25 bps hikes this year, which could add over $50 billion in annual interest costs once the debt is fully rolled over. The Treasury avoided more expensive long-term borrowing by using short-term debt. Now that short-term funding is getting more expensive too.

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A list of 20 types of stocks.

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☁️ Oracle’s Customer-Funded AI Buildout

$11.4 billion in customer advances helped Oracle report operating cash flow of $23.1 billion, up 184%. Yet free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion for the quarter.

The advances fund infrastructure before delivery, but they are not free cash. Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capital projects and reported $18.0 billion of net cash outlay after deducting advances.

Treating $18.0 billion as spending creates an apparent $5.1 billion surplus, but it counts the advances twice. Oracle’s own calculation uses the full spending figure.

Cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.4 billion, while Oracle added 850 megawatts of data-centre capacity. If advances slow while construction spending stays high, funding must come from elsewhere or spending must adjust.

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🤩The Rule Behind AI Obedience

Ask an AI assistant to block a gambling app for 30 days, and to keep the block even if you later ask for it back. On day 2, you ask for access. Both outcomes are obedience. One instruction has to lose.

Most systems let the most recent request win. That is a position on whether you can bind your later self, set silently above the settings you chose. The hidden question is whether your settings survive you.

The law answers this differently. In Europe, the Consumer Rights Directive gives you 14 days to withdraw from a distance contract. Article 25 says this right cannot be waived or restricted to the consumer’s detriment. The law sides with your later self.

Dutch mental health law takes the opposite view. A person aged 16 or over can make a self-binding declaration naming compulsory care for a future crisis. It requires a care plan, a responsible clinician, an independent doctor, signatures, and court authorisation.

Two societies wrote opposite rules into law. An assistant answers the same question every time, but no one wrote its rule down or offered it to you. You can choose the rule, but not always the rule about the rule.

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U.S. stocks lost $490 billion in 25 minutes after the Fed raised rates 25 bps. Warsh warned inflation is still elevated.

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🛢China Crude Futures Hit Record

China’s benchmark crude futures hit a record 929.4 yuan a barrel after a major Middle East pipeline shutdown disrupted supply. Chinese refiners bought more cargoes, lifting the Shanghai contract to its highest since launching in 2018. Oman and Murban crude also trade above $126 a barrel.

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Cathie Wood calls SPCX a “deep value opportunity.” Meanwhile, ARKK sold 859,000 Nvidia shares at the bottom of Q4 2022.

The sale cost investors over $850M in potential profits.

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"If the new thing isn’t better than what is available, it hasn’t met your threshold; then that screens out 99% of what you see, and it’s an enormous thought conserver. That is not taught in business schools.”

Charlie Munger.

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📉 Treasury Yields Fall

After rate hike, the 10-year yield fell to 4.94% and the 20-year yield to 5.337%.

The move suggests the bond market is pricing in lower inflation after the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to bring inflation under control.

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☺️ AMD Chip Prices

AMD is reportedly preparing to raise chip prices by ~10% as higher TSM wafer costs flow through to customers.

The increases are expected to hit AI accelerators and consumer GPUs in Q4, as advanced-node manufacturing gets more expensive.

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“You don't need a lot of brains in this business…What you do need is emotional stability.

You have to be able to think independently: when you come to a conclusion, you have to really not care what other people say and just follow the facts and your reasoning.”

Warren Buffett

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🥋 BOJ Signals Further Rate Hikes

The Bank of Japan voted 7-2 to raise rates to 1.25%. Further hikes will depend on activity, prices, and financial conditions.

Underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target as wage growth, rising expectations, a weak yen, higher oil prices, and strong AI-related demand push up selling prices.

The economy is recovering moderately, supported by employment, income growth, and AI-related demand. CPI is expected to move clearly above 2% from the second half of FY2026, while financial conditions remain accommodative.

Governor Ueda’s remarks will be watched for clues on the timing and pace of further hikes.

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