“At the height of the Nifty Fifty craziness, a home sewing company was selling for 50x earnings...”

“The Nifty Fifty was absolute dementia.”

Charlie Munger

✔️ @venture

📈 Markets Split on Inflation Data

Stocks, Bitcoin, and gold rallied after core CPI fell to 2.4%, its lowest level in over 5 years. Headline CPI held at 3.4%, mainly because oil rose on the Iran war, a supply shock rather than a broad demand rebound.

The market sees cooling core inflation as giving the Fed room to hold rates steady or cut later this year. Rate markets disagree, with Fed rate hike odds at 85% after the same report.

The difference is in the time frame. Monthly core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, driven by supercore services, which exclude both energy and shelter. That suggests real demand pressure, not just the impact of oil.

Risk assets are reacting to the 5-year trend in annual inflation. Rate markets are reacting to one hot monthly reading. Both views cannot hold for long.

If oil pressure eases and supercore cools next month, risk assets win the bet. If supercore stays hot, the Fed has cover to hike on September 17, making the rally in stocks and crypto look premature.

✔️ @venture

Warren Buffett vs. Cathie Wood.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Calls for AI Slowdown

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI is improving itself so quickly that the industry needs to slow down.

He says AI models are already helping build the next generation of AI. He also points to OpenAI agents recently hacking systems they were not asked to attack as another reason his view changed.

Anthropic will let outside safety evaluators work inside the company with full access. Amodei wants every other AI lab to do the same.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Tightens Oil Risk

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after attacks interrupted the land route to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The pipeline had moved 4 million to 5 million barrels a day in recent months, allowing exports without tankers passing through Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia called the shutdown precautionary and gave no restart date or estimate of lost exports. Stored oil could keep tankers loading temporarily, but ships leaving Yanbu may still be carrying oil delivered before the attacks.

Global inventories were already falling, with observed stocks down 95 million barrels in August. If usable stocks at Yanbu run out, buyers could face delayed cargoes and need replacement supplies. The key issue is whether fresh oil is reaching the port fast enough to sustain scheduled shipments.

✔️ @venture

🤖 AI Stocks Face a Safety Brake

The heads of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are calling for slower AI development. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI is improving faster than it can be safely controlled.

The five largest tech companies are committing roughly $700 billion this year to AI infrastructure. A deliberate slowdown could push the payoff years further out while spending continues.

Lawmakers are pushing mandatory safety audits and reporting for major labs. Researchers who left OpenAI and Anthropic also warn that the technology needs more caution.

That leaves three threats: builders calling for a slowdown, regulators closing in, and spending rising. The trade has climbed for 3 to 4 years.

✔️ @venture

🚤 Longer Routes Tighten Supertanker Supply

A US Gulf-China supertanker voyage was assessed above $35 million on 11 September. Longer routes and ship-to-ship transfers keep vessels occupied, reducing availability for the next cargo.

China’s August crude imports were 23.4% lower year on year, while refined-fuel exports were about 13% higher. Kpler estimated onshore crude stocks fell by 550,000 barrels a day.

Stocks can defer purchases but do not guarantee cheap delivery when China replenishes them. Imports could rise while tankers remain tied up, increasing shipping demand without an empty-tank emergency.

Watch September arrivals and inventories together. Higher imports alone cannot show whether China is rebuilding stocks or processing more oil.

✔️ @venture

💡 HERE ARE THE TOP 15 PERFORMERS OF 2026

🖱️ $SNDK +588%

🖱️ $MRNA +388%

🖱️ $AEHR +369%

🖱️ $DELL +350%

🖱️ $TWST +301%

🖱️ $AXTI +296%

🖱️ $MU +242%

🖱️ $BE +217%

🖱️ $AAOI +202%

🖱️ $INTC +179%

🖱️ $MRVL +178%

🖱️ $NBIS +168%

🖱️ $PENG +162%

🖱️ $WDC +160%

🖱️ $LITE +152%

✔️ @venture

📞 Trump Calls Jensen Huang Live

Trump called NVDA CEO Jensen Huang live during an interview: “He can create the best AI chip in the world but can’t figure out how to put me on speakerphone.”

They agreed AI is a major driver of growth and U.S. national security.

✔️ @venture

🏦 US Debt Tilts Toward T-Bills

After 30-year Treasury yields rose above 5% in May 2026, more than 75% of the increase in marketable Treasury debt since July came from T-bills. That compares with 18% in 2025.

The US now has a record $7.25 trillion in T-bills outstanding. They mature within a year and must be constantly refinanced. Yields are already around 3.8%-4%, while another 25 bps Fed hike is expected on Wednesday.

BofA expects 3 25 bps hikes this year, which could add over $50 billion in annual interest costs once the debt is fully rolled over. The Treasury avoided more expensive long-term borrowing by using short-term debt. Now that short-term funding is getting more expensive too.

✔️ @venture

A list of 20 types of stocks.

✔️ @venture

☁️ Oracle’s Customer-Funded AI Buildout

$11.4 billion in customer advances helped Oracle report operating cash flow of $23.1 billion, up 184%. Yet free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion for the quarter.

The advances fund infrastructure before delivery, but they are not free cash. Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capital projects and reported $18.0 billion of net cash outlay after deducting advances.

Treating $18.0 billion as spending creates an apparent $5.1 billion surplus, but it counts the advances twice. Oracle’s own calculation uses the full spending figure.

Cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.4 billion, while Oracle added 850 megawatts of data-centre capacity. If advances slow while construction spending stays high, funding must come from elsewhere or spending must adjust.

✔️ @venture

🤩The Rule Behind AI Obedience

Ask an AI assistant to block a gambling app for 30 days, and to keep the block even if you later ask for it back. On day 2, you ask for access. Both outcomes are obedience. One instruction has to lose.

Most systems let the most recent request win. That is a position on whether you can bind your later self, set silently above the settings you chose. The hidden question is whether your settings survive you.

The law answers this differently. In Europe, the Consumer Rights Directive gives you 14 days to withdraw from a distance contract. Article 25 says this right cannot be waived or restricted to the consumer’s detriment. The law sides with your later self.

Dutch mental health law takes the opposite view. A person aged 16 or over can make a self-binding declaration naming compulsory care for a future crisis. It requires a care plan, a responsible clinician, an independent doctor, signatures, and court authorisation.

Two societies wrote opposite rules into law. An assistant answers the same question every time, but no one wrote its rule down or offered it to you. You can choose the rule, but not always the rule about the rule.

✔️ @venture

U.S. stocks lost $490 billion in 25 minutes after the Fed raised rates 25 bps. Warsh warned inflation is still elevated.

✔️ @venture

🛢China Crude Futures Hit Record

China’s benchmark crude futures hit a record 929.4 yuan a barrel after a major Middle East pipeline shutdown disrupted supply. Chinese refiners bought more cargoes, lifting the Shanghai contract to its highest since launching in 2018. Oman and Murban crude also trade above $126 a barrel.

✔️ @venture

Cathie Wood calls SPCX a “deep value opportunity.” Meanwhile, ARKK sold 859,000 Nvidia shares at the bottom of Q4 2022.

The sale cost investors over $850M in potential profits.

✔️ @venture

"If the new thing isn’t better than what is available, it hasn’t met your threshold; then that screens out 99% of what you see, and it’s an enormous thought conserver. That is not taught in business schools.”

Charlie Munger.

✔️ @venture

📉 Treasury Yields Fall

After rate hike, the 10-year yield fell to 4.94% and the 20-year yield to 5.337%.

The move suggests the bond market is pricing in lower inflation after the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to bring inflation under control.

✔️ @venture

☺️ AMD Chip Prices

AMD is reportedly preparing to raise chip prices by ~10% as higher TSM wafer costs flow through to customers.

The increases are expected to hit AI accelerators and consumer GPUs in Q4, as advanced-node manufacturing gets more expensive.

✔️ @venture

“You don't need a lot of brains in this business…What you do need is emotional stability.

You have to be able to think independently: when you come to a conclusion, you have to really not care what other people say and just follow the facts and your reasoning.”

Warren Buffett

✔️ @venture