Jim Simons was the 55th richest person in the world. His approach to investing is grouped into 5 processes:

🖱️ Quant and data-driven approach.

🖱️ Systematic and algorithmic trading.

🖱️ Statistical arbitrage.

🖱️ Risk management.

🖱️ Iterative improvement.

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📉 Yen Strength Threatens Global Markets

USDJPY has fallen from 163.98 to 155.31, a 5.3% move in about five weeks. The yen alone is up 2.5% this week, creating a serious risk for global markets.

The trade is simple. Investors borrow cheap yen, convert it into dollars, and buy assets such as US stocks and bonds. Because the loan is in yen, a stronger yen makes repayment more expensive.

At 10x leverage, a 5.3% move against the trade wipes out about 53% of the trader’s cash cushion. At 20x, it wipes out more than 100%. Forced selling, followed by more yen buying, can create a self-reinforcing unwind. The same loop drove the sharp global selloff in August 2024.

Japan has spent $169.5 billion this year trying to control the yen, including $52.8 billion in a single day. Markets now see a 75% chance of another Bank of Japan rate hike this month, up from 24% a month ago. Higher rates make yen borrowing more expensive.

The size of the trade is unknown, but past estimates put it in the hundreds of…

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🔍 Google's First $100,000

Google was founded this day in 1998. Its first investor wrote a $100,000 check.

They celebrated with breakfast at Burger King.

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“You need to be intellectually curious, really really open-minded, & you need to have courage.

And when I say courage, you need the courage to bet big & bet concentrated, but also the courage to fight your own emotions.”

Stanley Druckenmiller

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Recommended reading for investors.

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“If you’re a slightly above-average investor who spends less than you earn, over a lifetime you cannot help but get very wealthy.”

Warren Buffett

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📉 September Selling Imbalance

Algorithmic trading funds have about $9 billion left to buy if stocks rise, but could be forced to sell up to $163 billion if markets fall. That is an 18-to-1 imbalance between upside support and downside pressure.

Companies are also entering their September buyback blackout period, when they cannot legally repurchase their own shares ahead of earnings. That removes another major buyer at the same time.

Together, the market has limited support for a drop, but significant selling capacity that could make one worse.

✔️ @venture

🍏 What’s Inside iPhone 17 Pro

The semiconductor stack spans compute, connectivity, power, sensing and materials. 12 companies supply layers of the phone.

$TSM makes A19 Pro. $AVGO supplies RF and wireless charging, while Apple’s N1 handles primary Wi‑Fi and Bluetooth. $QCOM supplies Snapdragon X80 in Pro models for mmWave, before Apple’s C2 takes over.

$GLW supplies cover glass and Ceramic Shield. $STM covers Face ID, cameras and power management. $NXPI handles NFC, secure payment, USB‑C and connectivity.

$CRUS, $TXN and $ADI supply audio, analog, power and charging chips. $SONY makes camera sensors, while $QRVO and $SWKS provide RF modules and components for cellular signals.

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💸Global Debt Interest Hits $2T

Global taxpayers now pay $2 trillion a year in interest without reducing principal. That is nearly $5.5 billion a day. Interest costs have already exceeded defense spending in Italy, the US, the UK, and France.

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💻️ NVIDIA’s $105 Billion Lease Exposure

If OpenAI defaults, NVIDIA may take over a lease to satisfy the covered loss obligation under its $105 billion guarantee. It could also seek a replacement tenant, sell the assets, allow termination, or defer its choice for up to a year while paying specified costs. Takeover terms are redacted.

The arrangement covers 9 phases in Pike County, Ohio, designed for 4.25 gigawatts of capacity. Each has a 20-year lease, with the first expected to begin in NVIDIA’s fiscal 2029. NVIDIA may support another 3.8 gigawatts.

OpenAI’s affiliate has promised to reimburse NVIDIA, but the filings do not show whether that covers every obligation or whether payment would be timely. A qualifying credit rating for OpenAI or its parent could release NVIDIA before the first building opens.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. cannot pause on AI because China will not. “Nothing would matter if China pulled away on AI.”

AI has a PR problem. As the buildout grows, hyperscalers must explain what their spending is enabling.

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🍏 Apple’s First Foldable iPhone

$AAPL introduced its first foldable iPhone, the “iPhone Duo.”

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The US Treasury bought back $12.5 billion in short-term debt today.

Today, it may buy up to $6 billion in long-term bonds, 3x normal.

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🍏 Apple A20 Pro Chip

Apple's new 2nm A20 Pro chip delivers up to 20% faster CPU performance, 40% faster graphics and 50% more memory bandwidth. Its thermal design raises sustained performance 40% over iPhone 17 Pro and 2x over iPhone 16 Pro.

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🍏 Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro Strategy

iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max add the A20 Pro chip, Apple’s longest battery life yet, and upgraded low-light cameras.

Apple is moving more AI on-device, while keeping heavier workloads in its private cloud.

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🇺🇸 CLARITY Act Draft Adds Changes

A new 630-page draft of the CLARITY Act is circulating in the Senate ahead of the September 15 vote.

🖱️ DeFi protocols that are not truly decentralized may have to register with the CFTC.

🖱️ New DeFi rules would be limited to spot and cash transactions.

🖱️ The draft addresses Native American groups’ concerns about prediction markets.

🖱️ It reflects more than 100 changes requested by Democrats.

The bill is not bipartisan yet. Backers say the revisions are intended to build support before the floor vote.

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🚖 Insiders Are Buying Uber

Uber's CEO bought $10M of Uber, taking 141,000 shares at $70.96 on September 10th.

🖱️ Uber President and COO Andrew M. bought $5.3M.

🖱️ Nancy Pelosi spent up to $1M on Uber calls in May.

🖱️ Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund holds $5.3B.

🖱️ Bill Ackman's Pershing Square holds $2.5B.

The buying suggests they are not worried about Tesla's Cybercab.

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“At the height of the Nifty Fifty craziness, a home sewing company was selling for 50x earnings...”

“The Nifty Fifty was absolute dementia.”

Charlie Munger

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📈 Markets Split on Inflation Data

Stocks, Bitcoin, and gold rallied after core CPI fell to 2.4%, its lowest level in over 5 years. Headline CPI held at 3.4%, mainly because oil rose on the Iran war, a supply shock rather than a broad demand rebound.

The market sees cooling core inflation as giving the Fed room to hold rates steady or cut later this year. Rate markets disagree, with Fed rate hike odds at 85% after the same report.

The difference is in the time frame. Monthly core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, driven by supercore services, which exclude both energy and shelter. That suggests real demand pressure, not just the impact of oil.

Risk assets are reacting to the 5-year trend in annual inflation. Rate markets are reacting to one hot monthly reading. Both views cannot hold for long.

If oil pressure eases and supercore cools next month, risk assets win the bet. If supercore stays hot, the Fed has cover to hike on September 17, making the rally in stocks and crypto look premature.

✔️ @venture