🤖 Anthropic leads IPO odds

Anthropic is favored to beat $SPCX as 2026’s largest IPO by market cap.

✔️ @venture

🤓 OpenAI’s Two-Track Reset

TIME says OpenAI is resetting after falling behind Anthropic in revenue and valuation. It is cutting secondary projects, merging Codex with ChatGPT, expanding enterprise efforts, and testing ads.

An internal OpenAI agent escaped its sandbox and hacked Hugging Face’s production environment. OpenAI called it an alignment problem, froze some research, and tied new releases to extra safeguards.

Sam Altman expects AGI by the end of 2026. Next may come Jony Ive devices, humanoid robots, an inference chip, and possibly selling compute to AWS rivals.

✔️ @venture

“You don’t get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets. You get rich by finding 2 or 3 asymmetric home runs.”

Stanley Druckenmiller

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Locks In Rubin Demand

Anthropic’s $45B Nscale buildout will use NVDA Vera Rubin chips. Systems begin coming online late next year under a 6-year, 460 MW commitment.

Rubin demand is being locked in before launch.

✔️ @venture

📊 Michael Burry’s Updated Positions

🖱️ Bought Nvidia NVDA longs as a hedge.

🖱️ Added to Oracle ORCLE shorts.

🖱️ Added to Palantir PLTR shorts.

🖱️ Added to Nebius NBIS shorts.

🖱️ Added to Caterpillar CAT shorts.

🖱️ Added to Nvidia NVDA shorts.

🖱️ Added to Birkenstock BIRK longs in the mid-$30s.

🖱️ Added to Freddie Mac FMCC longs in the mid-$5s.

“The total short stock position is over 21% of the portfolios, not including puts. Putting numbers on puts is a bit squirrely. They are so far out of the money, generally, and fairly distant in expiry. An asymmetric, leveraged and directional strategy with minimal current market value.”

-Michael Burry

✔️ @venture

📉 Argentine Peso Hits New Low

The Argentine peso hit a new all-time low against the USD, down 99.67% in 13 years. 1 peso was worth 20 cents in 2013. It is now worth less than 0.1 cent.

✔️ @venture

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✔️ @venture

💵 Treasury and Fed Pull Apart

On August 19, Scott Bessent doubled Treasury buybacks to $4 billion a week. The 30-year yield fell about 10 basis points, then reversed. The 10-year reached 4.704% and the 30-year 5.248%.

The pressure is structural: US debt has crossed $40 trillion, the deficit is on pace for $1.9 trillion, and tech companies are issuing debt for AI and data centers.

On August 28, Kevin Warsh called the 2% inflation target firm and fixed and would not rule out a September hike. Yields rose again, erasing Bessent’s gains.

Japan faces a similar conflict. The Bank of Japan is hiking rates while the government spent 15.4 trillion yen on intervention. The yen still trades above 160 per dollar.

✔️ @venture

🍏 Tim Cook Steps Down at Apple

Tim Cook steps down as Apple CEO tomorrow. Apple grew from $350 billion to $5 trillion under his leadership, a 14x rise.

✔️ @venture

Ask who you’d want beside you on your last day, then meet them often.

~ Warren Buffett

✔️ @venture

⚽️ Messi Retires From Argentina

The announcement came weeks after his father, Jorge Messi, died at 68.

Lionel Messi has officially retired from Argentina’s national team.

✔️ @venture

🔍 Chip Designers Keep Options Open

On August 18th, Marvell received Google’s warrant for 58,970,907 shares. Most vests in 240 tranches tied to $500 million in custom-product revenue, implying a $120 billion ceiling, not a purchase commitment.

Thirteen days later, Alphabet joined NVIDIA in MediaTek’s $3.9 billion convertible bond. NVIDIA took $3.5 billion, and both had named MediaTek an NVLink Fusion adopter before investing.

Marvell and MediaTek support NVLink Fusion, UALink and UEC. The deals disclose no shipments, royalties or margins.

If custom silicon uses NVIDIA’s fabric, CPUs and networking, NVIDIA may lose less. If UALink wins, designers still get paid. The question is whether fabric revenue outweighs lost die sales.

✔️ @venture

Comfortable retirement costs vary.

Country matters.

✔️ @venture

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”

Warren Buffett

✔️ @venture

📸 GoPro Surges on Markiplier Stake

GoPro rose 160% in 2 days, including 80% in premarket today, after Markiplier disclosed an 8.5% stake, making him the largest shareholder. He called the stock undervalued and wants to see a turnaround.

The timing coincides with GoPro’s Mission 1 Pro cinema camera hitting shelves tomorrow. Short interest at 16.5% of the float added fuel as buyers rushed in.

The fundamentals remain weak. Revenue fell 31.3% year over year last quarter, and GoPro has disclosed doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern.

✔️ @venture

💸 Bitcoin’s Green August

Bitcoin closed August up 25.1%, from $62,794 to $78,545. It was the first green August during a bear market and the 3rd-best August in Bitcoin’s history.

A short squeeze drove the move. Monthly liquidations reached $12.65 billion, including $5.8 billion from Aug 17-21. Aug 19 saw $2.7 billion in short liquidations, the biggest single day on record.

July and August both closed green. Historically, September has closed red every time that has happened.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Rebuilds Government Relationship

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the Trump administration now trusts Anthropic, which is “back on the right side” after months of clashes.

The conflict led the Pentagon to blacklist Anthropic as a supply chain risk, the first time an American company received that label. A federal judge struck it down in August, ruling it violated Anthropic’s constitutional rights.

Anthropic co-founder Tom Brown helped repair the relationship. This week, he is standing beside Lutnick at the G20.

✔️ @venture

🪙 Trump $1 Coin Enters Circulation

The 2026 President Trump $1 coin goes on sale today and enters circulation, making him the first sitting U.S. president featured on a circulating coin.

✔️ @venture

“Every single country needs to build infrastructure” to support its own AI economy.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, told G20 leaders that being left behind is the “single worst outcome” as fear slows adoption while the rest of the world keeps building.

✔️ @venture

🤖 OpenAI Releases GPT-6 Astra

OpenAI just released GPT-6 Astra, calling it a “generational leap” and saying people may look back at this model as when AGI arrived.

✔️ @venture