The US has completed its 8th consecutive night of strikes on Iran after President Trump ordered CENTCOM to "open the gates of hell."

CENTCOM says it targeted Iranian military facilities, air defenses, missile and drone storage sites and IRGC forces in strikes carried out just an hour ago.

At least two US service members were killed and another remains missing after the attack in Jordan, prompting the US to intensify its strikes against Iran.

More than 50,000 US troops remain deployed across the Middle East.

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Intel was founded this day in 1968.

3 years earlier, co-founder Gordon Moore predicted the chip industry’s next decade.

It became known as Moore’s Law.

In its first decade, Intel’s revenue grew nearly 15,000%.

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🛢Oil could put inflation back at the center of the market

Inflation had started easing as oil prices fell after the June ceasefire. That trend is now at risk of reversing as tensions in the Middle East escalate again.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supply, has seen tanker traffic drop sharply. Reuters also reports that Iran has told the Houthis to prepare for a possible closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait if the conflict widens. Together, the two routes handle roughly 27% of global oil shipments.
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The U.S. also has less room to respond than in previous crises. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 326 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983.
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At the same time, the Federal Reserve is already concerned about inflation, with several policymakers still projecting higher rates rather than cuts.
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If oil prices keep rising, inflation could quickly become the market's biggest risk again.

✔️ @venture

Cannibal stocks (Buy back compounders):

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📊 Global recession risk drops to a 4-year low

MacroMicro's Global Recession Probability Index has fallen to its lowest level since January 2021, with the current reading near 20%, well below the 50% recession threshold.

The improvement largely reflects the recent drop in oil prices from $120 to $70, which helped cool inflation and improve macro data.
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If oil keeps rising again on renewed Middle East tensions, that trend could reverse quickly.

✔️ @venture

📉 How leverage turned South Korea's AI boom into a market crash

South Korea went from the world's best-performing stock market to a 30% correction in less than a month. Nearly $1.3 trillion in market value disappeared after years of gains driven by just Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together accounted for more than 50% of the KOSPI.

The AI story itself didn't break. Both companies remain global leaders in AI memory chips, and demand for HBM continues to grow. The problem was market structure. Retail investors piled into leveraged single-stock ETFs, owned around 92% of these products, and borrowed nearly ₩60 trillion to amplify their bets.
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When global semiconductor sentiment weakened, leverage turned a normal correction into a cascade of forced selling. More than 1.2 million investors reportedly faced margin calls, while foreign investors had already pulled almost $110 billion from Korean equities. Rising inflation and a surprise interest rate hike added further pressure.
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The lesson goes beyond South Korea. Strong fundamentals can drive a rally, but when too much leverage and too many investors crowd into the same trade, market structure often matters more than the underlying business.

✔️ @venture

🇺🇸 Trump proposes 50% tariffs on Canadian imports

Donald Trump announced plans to impose 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports starting August 19, using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 after earlier tariffs were blocked by the Supreme Court.

The proposed tariffs would apply to many goods previously exempt under the USMCA, while Canada is already considering a "dollar for dollar" response if the measures take effect.
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If implemented, the move could reignite a U.S.-Canada trade war and put renewed pressure on prices and cross-border supply chains.

✔️ @venture

🚨 Big Tech's hidden debt has reached $1.65 trillion

A Nikkei analysis found that America's largest tech companies now have $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations, exceeding their reported debt of $1.35 trillion.

The commitments come from long-term AI infrastructure projects, including data center leases and GPU orders that accounting rules allow companies to keep off their balance sheets until certain conditions are met.
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Meta reportedly has $420 billion in these obligations, while Oracle's total reached $273 billion as it expands AI infrastructure with OpenAI.
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The risk is that if AI demand slows, these commitments could eventually become real liabilities just as new data centers come online.

✔️ @venture

💰 A $100K check that became a $15 billion investment

In 1998, Andy Bechtolsheim, co-founder of Sun Microsystems, watched a demo of Google's PageRank and wrote a $100,000 check to "Google Inc." in less than 30 minutes.

The company hadn't even been incorporated yet.

Google went public in 2004, turning his stake into roughly $300 million. Instead of selling, Bechtolsheim kept his shares, and their value has since grown to more than $15 billion.

The investment is one of Silicon Valley's most successful angel bets, showing how early conviction can matter more than months of due diligence.

✔️ @venture

📈 The S&P 500 has never been this concentrated

At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it took 32 stocks to make up half of the S&P 500. Today, it takes just 24, making the index more concentrated than at any point in its history.
Since ChatGPT launched, 42 AI-related companies have generated up to 75% of the index's returns, profit growth, and capital spending.
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That concentration is becoming a bigger risk. Short interest across the S&P 500 has climbed to its highest level since 2010, while AI infrastructure spending continues to outpace cash flow at some companies.
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When a small group of stocks drives most of the market, any disappointment can have an outsized impact on the entire index.

✔️ @venture

🔽 $2.8 TRILLION has been wiped out from stocks, gold, silver, and crypto in the last 24 hours

Here's why everything is crashing:

🖱 Alphabet's earnings disappointed investors last night.

It raised its 2026 AI spending plan to $195-205 billion, and tech stocks are crashing on fears that AI spending is growing faster than profits.

🖱 Oil prices jumped to 42 day high today after Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.

🖱 The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.714% today, its highest level since Jan 2025.

🖱 Odds of a Fed rate hike in September jumped to 82%, up from just 20% two weeks ago.

🖱 Trump told Axios he's close to ordering a "massive attack" on Iran, bigger than the last one.

Everything is feeding into the same fear, and every market is crashing because of it.

✔️ @venture

🇨🇳 China aims to produce 70% of its AI chips domestically by 2030

According to Morgan Stanley, China's AI chip self-sufficiency could rise from 10% in 2021 to 70% by 2030. After a brief plateau around 2025-2026, growth is expected to accelerate as domestic production scales.

U.S. export restrictions have pushed China to build its own semiconductor supply chain, from chip manufacturing to equipment, materials, and testing.
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Companies positioned to benefit include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, ACM Research, Kingsoft Cloud, and equipment makers Naura Technology and AMEC. Investors looking for broader exposure can also use ETFs focused on Chinese technology and semiconductor companies.
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The AI race is no longer just about building better chips. It's also about who can build the entire supply chain.

✔️ @venture

Elon Musk has lost $582 billion in net worth in the last 38 days, as SpaceX crashes 50% from its all-time high.

✔️ @venture