The Theory AI Index of publicly traded companies continue to outperform more classical software companies since we published the index earlier this year.
📎 Across the five most important metrics, AI companies’ valuation correlates isn’t that much different than non-AI companies.
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In the last decade, the total number of venture backed software M&A by count has remained relatively constant. The black line shows the linear trend across US venture backed companies with disclosed values of $50m or more.
If there are any increases, they tend to be in the bigger acquisitions of $500 million or more - although the sample size there is sufficiently small to conclude the trend is significant.
💫 Nevertheless, there are huge differences between the total value created by software M&A annually. The least productive year produced $3.25b in M&A value and the most productive $59.7b, a 18.4x swing.
Multi-billion dollar acquisitions, the blue bars, are the largest contributors to this swing. In 2014, 2016, 2020, 2021, these big mergers drove the figures into the tens of billions.
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Amazon announced their earnings yesterday. Like Microsoft & Google, Amazon’s Web Service business is seeing a surge of growth, up from 13% annual to 17% annual growth (16% when excluding the leap year).
We have the broadest selection of NVIDIA compute instances around, but demand for our custom silicon, Trainium and Inferentia, is quite high given its favorable price performance benefits relative to available alternatives. Larger quantities of our latest generation Trainium2 is coming in the second half of 2024 and early 2025.
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Harlem Capital is raising a $150 million fund, according to documents filed with the SEC.
The firm was founded in 2015 with the goal of backing diverse founders. Its second fund focused on early-stage post-product companies from all sectors but with a particular focus on consumer and enterprise tech. The firm currently has $174 million in assets under management, according to Pitchbook, and has made more than 80 investments since its inception, with 12 exits. Investments include Propense.ai, the fintech Poolit, and the e-commerce platform Gander.
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#VentureNews
If Ethereum were to trade on the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ, it would top the net income margin (%) charts, with Microsoft, Adobe and Veeva thereafter.
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At this pace, we should expect AI startups to raise about $55b in 2024
AI startups now command more than 20% share of all US venture dollars across categories, including healthcare, biotech, & software. In the preceding eight years, that number was about 8% per year. But after the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, there’s a marked inflection point.
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The average enterprise uses upwards of 70 security products. Many of these products produce alerts identifying phishing emails or network access issues or odd device behavior.
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But secondary investors and IPO lawyers recently told TechCrunch that despite these four successes, macro conditions like the upcoming presidential election and elevated interest rates, means the IPO market won’t fully reopen until 2025.
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#VentureNews
It’s software-as-a-service. So the costs of developing & maintaining the software are ongoing. If that argument is correct, then the average gross margin of a software company in the public domain would fall from 72% to 47%. Quite a stark difference.
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San Francisco topped the list, as expected: the number of talented professionals and the amount of venture capital here are second to none. In addition, the headquarters of many of the largest startups in the field of artificial intelligence are located here.
In terms of the number of transactions, the Bay Area is also a leader — in 2023, 17% of the total number of global rounds were closed here.
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Spain’s venture capital tally was lower last year than in 2021 and 2022; that’s no surprise as these years were outliers. Unlike other places, though, the country hasn’t fallen below pre-pandemic levels of activity. In 2019, for reference, Spanish startups had collectively raised €1.9BN in venture capital.
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There’s no question the venture scene has changed meaningfully since Uncork got its start. When firm founder Jeff Clavier launched the firm, he was mostly using his savings to write six-figure checks to founders. Now Clavier and his contemporaries, including Josh Kopelman of First Round Capital and Aydin Senkut of Felicis, collectively oversee billions of dollars in assets.
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