Venture Capital
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The official channel of V3V Ventures. We share updates on our investments, portfolio companies, and fund activities.

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๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธETF Partners raises โ‚ฌ285M for climate startups that will be effective quickly โ€” not 20 years down the road

โšก๏ธWhile many climate investors focus their efforts on breakthrough, deep-tech solutions, Patrick Sheehan at ETF Partners has other ideas.

#๏ธโƒฃIโ€™ve actually got nothing against carbon capture and storage, apart from the fact itโ€™s probably going to be commercialized too late, he told TechCrunch. Instead, Sheehan and his colleagues are diving into more software-centric companies that promise to still move the needle.


๐Ÿ’ซโ€œThere are those who say thatโ€™s a cop out,โ€ Sheehan said. โ€œThe more I look at it, the more I completely disagree with that notion. We need to find companies we can scale rapidly to have an impact within the lifetime of a venture capital fund. Thatโ€™s 10 years maximum.โ€

โšก๏ธItโ€™s a sentiment that has helped ETF Partners raise a new, oversubscribed โ‚ฌ285 million fund, the firmโ€™s fourth.

๐Ÿ’ซThe firm was founded in 2006, and it has ridden a series of bull and bear markets. Until 2018, Sheehan describes his work as having been โ€œmore evangelical.โ€ Since then, he has found limited partners to be much more receptive to climate tech. โ€œItโ€™s become much more of a good institutional product.โ€

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๐Ÿš€Alchemistโ€™s latest batch puts AI to work as accelerator expands to Tokyo, Doha
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๐Ÿ”ŽAlchemist Accelerator has a new pile of AI-forward companies demoing their wares today, if you care to watch, and the program itself is making some international moves into Tokyo and Doha. Read on for our picks of the batch.

๐Ÿ’ซChatting with Alchemist CEO and founder Ravi Belani ahead of demo day about this cohort, it was clear that ambitions for AI startups have contracted, and thatโ€™s not a bad thing.

๐ŸŒโ€œThe cost of building a basic LLM is prohibitively high; you get into the hundreds of millions of dollars just to get it out. The question is, as a startup, how do you compete?โ€ Belani said. โ€œVCs donโ€™t want wrappers around LLMs. Weโ€™re looking for companies where thereโ€™s a vertical play, where they own the end user and thereโ€™s a network effect and lock-in over time.โ€


๐Ÿ”ŽNo early-stage startup today is at all likely to become the next OpenAI or Anthropic โ€” their lead is too huge right now in the domain of foundational large language models.

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๐Ÿ™‚ Are AI Companies Valued Differently Than Non-AI Companies?

The Theory AI Index of publicly traded companies continue to outperform more classical software companies since we published the index earlier this year. โ—๏ธ

๐Ÿ“ŽAcross the five most important metrics, AI companiesโ€™ valuation correlates isnโ€™t that much different than non-AI companies.


๐Ÿ”ต Revenue growth, sales efficiency, & cash flow are all relatively similar. So is net income margin, although the AI correlate is about half. The only one that stands out is gross margin, where the correlate is mildly negative.

๐Ÿ”ต So while AI companies do fetch a premium, public market investors view them as software companies, even if they do have robots furiously typing away inside their data centers.

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๐Ÿ’กMassive Acquisitions in Software Startups

In the last decade, the total number of venture backed software M&A by count has remained relatively constant. The black line shows the linear trend across US venture backed companies with disclosed values of $50m or more. ๐Ÿš€

๐Ÿ’ซThe average & median counts by year total 58 & 55 respectively.

If there are any increases, they tend to be in the bigger acquisitions of $500 million or more - although the sample size there is sufficiently small to conclude the trend is significant. ๐Ÿš€

๐Ÿ’ซNevertheless, there are huge differences between the total value created by software M&A annually. The least productive year produced $3.25b in M&A value and the most productive $59.7b, a 18.4x swing.


Multi-billion dollar acquisitions, the blue bars, are the largest contributors to this swing. In 2014, 2016, 2020, 2021, these big mergers drove the figures into the tens of billions.๐Ÿ’ฅ

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โญ๏ธThe Capex Conquest in the Cloud

Amazon announced their earnings yesterday. Like Microsoft & Google, Amazonโ€™s Web Service business is seeing a surge of growth, up from 13% annual to 17% annual growth (16% when excluding the leap year).

๐ŸŽฅ Aside from the overall growth of these clouds increasing, the massive investment in CapEx data centers, power plants, and GPUs is stunning. Google and Microsoft would wait another two years to replicate a similar level of investment.

๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธOver time, we should expect Amazon and Google, amongst others, to start to compete with Nvidia GPUs, offering their own which should meaningfully improve margins.

We have the broadest selection of NVIDIA compute instances around, but demand for our custom silicon, Trainium and Inferentia, is quite high given its favorable price performance benefits relative to available alternatives. Larger quantities of our latest generation Trainium2 is coming in the second half of 2024 and early 2025.


๐ŸŽฅ And those margins are increasing for the clouds, which should catalyze more companies, especially the largest spenders, to think about managing their own infrastructure. 8 percentage points increased margins in a quarter is titanic.

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โญ๏ธHarlem Capital is raising a $150 million fund

Harlem Capital is raising a $150 million fund, according to documents filed with the SEC.

๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธ If raised, this new fund, the firmโ€™s third, would be its largest to date. In 2021, Harlem Capital raised an oversubscribed $134 million, much more than the $40 million it raised for its inaugural fund in 2019.

The firm was founded in 2015 with the goal of backing diverse founders. Its second fund focused on early-stage post-product companies from all sectors but with a particular focus on consumer and enterprise tech. The firm currently has $174 million in assets under management, according to Pitchbook, and has made more than 80 investments since its inception, with 12 exits. Investments include Propense.ai, the fintech Poolit, and the e-commerce platform Gander.


๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธ Harlem Capital also focused on raising from diverse limited partners for its second fund, and itโ€™s safe to assume that mission will continue as the firm stays true to its mission of supporting the next generation of diverse founders.

๐Ÿ’กThe successful raising of this $150 million fund will be not only a show of success for Harlem Capital and its founders but also a testament to the industryโ€™s appetite for still believing in and backing talented, underrepresented communities.

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๐Ÿ’ปThe Most Profitable Software Company in Q1 2024
#VentureNews

๐Ÿ“ถ Ethereum generated $370m in profit on $825m in revenue for about a 45% net income margin.

๐Ÿ“ถ The chart above shows both the historical performance & also explains how web3 blockchains like Ethereum generate revenue & profits.

If Ethereum were to trade on the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ, it would top the net income margin (%) charts, with Microsoft, Adobe and Veeva thereafter.


๐Ÿ”Ž In terms of aggregate dollars across all publicly traded software companies, the Ethereum would be sixth. Note the profit scale in the chart above is logarithmic.

๐Ÿ”Ž Ethereumโ€™s market cap is roughly $350b today, which is on par with Salesforce & worth 7 Snowflakes. It trades at 100x revenue compared to 7-17x for Salesforce & Snowflake.

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๐Ÿ’ผThe Fastest Growing Category of Venture Investment in 2024
#VentureNews

๐ŸŽ The fastest growing category of US venture investment in 2024 is AI. Venture capitalists have invested $18.3 billion through the first four months of the year.

At this pace, we should expect AI startups to raise about $55b in 2024

AI startups now command more than 20% share of all US venture dollars across categories, including healthcare, biotech, & software. In the preceding eight years, that number was about 8% per year. But after the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, thereโ€™s a marked inflection point.


๐ŸŽ Some of this is new company formation, & there has been a significant amount of seed investment in this category. Another major contributor is the repositioning of existing companies to include AI within their pitch.

๐ŸŽ Not surprisingly, investors have concentrated total dollars in a few names, with the top three companies accounting for 60% of the dollars raised. Power laws are ubiquitous in venture capital & AI is no exception.

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๐Ÿ”„ Partnering with Dropzone: Automating Security Operations with AI
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๐Ÿ”„ Enterprises spend more on security but arenโ€™t benefitting from the extra spend. Palo Alto Networksโ€™ customers who buy security across 3 platforms spend more than 40x those that secure just one.

The average enterprise uses upwards of 70 security products. Many of these products produce alerts identifying phishing emails or network access issues or odd device behavior.

๐Ÿ”„ The security operations center (SOC) reviews these alerts. Estimates suggest the typical team receives between 5,000 & 11,000 alerts per day - every day. Worse still, every SOC team is short-staffed.

๐Ÿ”„ Leveraging the power of LLMs, Dropzoneโ€™s analysts collect alerts, fetch relevant information from other systems, and then triage alerts. These agents also inform copilots that empower security analysts to ask questions of their environment leveraging the insight of the AI analysts.

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๐Ÿ’ก From Plaid to Figma, here are the startups that are likely โ€” or definitely โ€” not having IPOs this year
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๐Ÿ’ซLast yearโ€™s investor dreams of a strong 2024 IPO pipeline have faded, if not fully disappeared, as we approach the halfway point of the year.2024 delivered four venture-backed tech IPOs, Reddit, Astera Labs, Ibotta and Rubrik, in March and April, which made it seem like this year could spur the momentum investors had hoped for in 2023.

But secondary investors and IPO lawyers recently told TechCrunch that despite these four successes, macro conditions like the upcoming presidential election and elevated interest rates, means the IPO market wonโ€™t fully reopen until 2025.


๐Ÿ’ซThis year is still on track to be better than 2023, and weโ€™ll likely see a few more public filings throughout the year Companies including Klarna and Shein have engaged with bankers and seem close the line, but their IPO timelines are still murky.

๐Ÿ”ฅFor the most part, it may be easier to decipher who isnโ€™t going public this year rather than who is. Some CEOs of late-stage startups have directly stated they wonโ€™t IPO in 2024 while other companies have made financial moves that imply a public listing isnโ€™t imminent.

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โšก๏ธAre Software Companies Good Businesses?
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๐Ÿ”† Research & development costs associated with software should be part of their cost of goods sold. Software companies donโ€™t invest once in R&D & then sell copies of the software as we did in the 90s on CDs.

Itโ€™s software-as-a-service. So the costs of developing & maintaining the software are ongoing. If that argument is correct, then the average gross margin of a software company in the public domain would fall from 72% to 47%. Quite a stark difference.


๐Ÿ”† Profitability for software companies isnโ€™t straightforward. Different accounting rules govern revenue & cost recognition. In 2017, the industry migrated from ASC 605 to ASC 606, which are financial arcana as esoteric as it reads. Overnight, some companies were more profitable & others were not.

โšก๏ธ Software companies top the charts at 3% over the last 20 years, according to data from New Constructs, a financial research firm. For a period from December 9, 2009, to approximately March of 2016, technology companies produced nearly 5% free cash flow yields on average.

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๐Ÿ” Quarterly AI Funding Amounts
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๐Ÿค– According to a recent Crunchbase report, AI talent is still concentrated in several regions of the world. This has led to a skew in the volume of venture financing to startups in these regions.

San Francisco topped the list, as expected: the number of talented professionals and the amount of venture capital here are second to none. In addition, the headquarters of many of the largest startups in the field of artificial intelligence are located here.


๐Ÿค– Data shows that in 2023, $27 billion of venture capital money went to AI startups located in the Bay Area โ€” this is more than 50% of all global venture capital money invested in AI startups.
In terms of the number of transactions, the Bay Area is also a leader โ€” in 2023, 17% of the total number of global rounds were closed here.

๐Ÿค– Nevertheless, according to Crunchbase, New York is still the number two city for AI financing and startup launches: in 2023, investors in NY invested $2.9 billion in AI startups.

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