USMortality
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Software Engineer • COVID-19 Research, Bioinformatics & Statistics: https://www.mortality.watchhttps://www.rkileak.com • Articles: https://www.usmortality.com
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Fitting Gompertz curves to each outbreak!
Soon going to put up a site for these kind or charts.
Let me know what you think!
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The most representative data that we can get from German sentinel, where they survey 600 doctor offices, shows that SARS2 prevalence is identical to last years!
> This debunks that there is not more spread due to variants, etc.
Forwarded from Chief Nerd
Justice Sotomayor claimed today that there are over 100k children hospitalized from COVID-19 in serious condition.

According to the CDC, as of Jan 1st, there are only 140 children hospitalized from C19 across the US. Even if we look at cumulative numbers since the start of the pandemic, that number is 5,500.

Source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_5.html

@ChiefNerd
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Comparing the mortality of Q4 for 2020 vs 2021 and then correlating it to the vaccination levels, shows there's no significant correlation!
@USMortality
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So COVID-19 coded deaths pretty much match all-cause excess mortality 1:1 - BUT keep in mind, that there's no significant excess mortality overall, which means that COVID-19 in Germany has replaced the flu 1:1!

2020 up to week 50, had a deficit of -2.1% and 2021 year it's +0.8% until that week!

@USMortality
Currently Boosters in the US are at 22%, while First doses were at 48% adoption of the population at a similar time.
Just Correlation or also Causation?
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Forwarded from Publius
Lots of folks sick this week, almost all of these items are available without prescription and are helping people recover quickly. Remember, EARLY TREATMENT is KEY.
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Germany:
> Blue excess Mortality
> Yellow First Doses
> Green Second doses
> Red Booster
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Booster vs Excess mortality per week
> Top: Booster Vaccines
> Bottom: Excess Mortality
Austria (Österreich), Germany (Deutschland), Switzerland (Schweiz) & Israel
Via: https://t.co/mK8k4m5BAO
@USMortality
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Weekly COVID-19 Update for the USA! @USMortality
Weekly COVID-19 Update for Germany! @USMortality
NEW study finds, that vaccines statistically significantly increase COVID-19 cases and deaths, as compared to no treatment!
"They indicate a marked increase in both COVID-19 related cases and death due directly to a vaccine deployment [..]."

"Results indicate that the treatment (vaccine administration) has a strong and statistically significant propensity to causally increase the values in either y1 or y2 over and above what would have been expected with no treatment. y1 showed an increase/decrease ratio of (+115/-13), which means 89.84% of statistically significant countries showed an increase in total deaths per million associated with COVID-19 due directly to the causal impact of treatment initiation.

y2 showed an increase/decrease ratio of (+105/-16) which means 86.78% of statistically significant countries showed an increase in total cases per million of COVID-19 due directly to the causal impact of treatment initiation.

This low positive correlation signifies that countries with higher vaccination rates do not have lower values for y2.E, slightly the opposite in fact.

The statistically significant and overwhelmingly positive causal impact after vaccine deployment on the dependent variables total deaths and total cases per million should be highly worrisome for policy makers.

They indicate a marked increase in both COVID-19 related cases and death due directly to a vaccine deployment that was originally sold to the public as the “key to gain back our freedoms.” The effect of vaccines on total cases per million and its low positive association with total vaccinations per hundred signifies a limited impact of vaccines on lowering COVID-19 associated cases."

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356248984_Worldwide_Bayesian_Causal_Impact_Analysis_of_Vaccine_Administration_on_Deaths_and_Cases_Associated_with_COVID-19_A_BigData_Analysis_of_145_Countries
@USMortality
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JUST IN: Final Germany Age-Adjusted Mortality Update for 2021!
> 2020: Excess of +1.6%
> 2021: Excess of +1.8%

If there weren't any COVID-19 deaths, this is what the mortality figures would look like!

To get to exactly 0% excess mortality, Germany would have still to have 87% of it's COVID-19 deaths. This suggests that most of the COVID-19 deaths are likely incidental test positives.

@USMortality